The Friday MLB schedule has an interesting slate of games, and I'll be looking into starting pitchers Dylan Cease, Merrill Kelly and Jack Flaherty for my MLB prop picks.
Let's dive into my MLB player props for Friday, March 28, all of which feature strikeout over/unders.
MLB Player Prop Picks for Friday, March 28
- Dylan Cease Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140, DraftKings)
- Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 Strikeouts (- 110, DraftKings)
- Jack Flaherty Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115, BetMGM)
Braves vs Padres Props: Back Dylan Cease
Yesterday, I laid some juice on Michael King to go over 4.5 strikeouts, and his outing didn't go well. However, I'm willing to run it back today with Dylan Cease.
Last season, the Braves ranked 21st in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and five of their regulars are the cause of that, as they each have above-average strikeout rates.
However, at this point in the season, the focus is on Cease.
I'm not worried about his length, as he worked up to nearly 80 pitches in his final two Spring Training outings. Cease is an elite strikeout pitcher who ranked in the 94th percentile last season and has a great matchup, so laying the price on this over is a great first bet for today's slate.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Props: Fade Merrill Kelly
Next, we shift to Arizona, where Merrill Kelly will be taking the hill for the Diamondbacks. Kelly had a down 2024 campaign as he finished with a 4.03 ERA and a 4.25 FIP.
A significant cause of his decline was a drop off in strikeout rate as he ranked in just the 40th percentile amongst all qualified pitchers. Another concern for Kelly in this outing is the length he'll be able to give.
His highest pitch count in Spring Training was just 66, and given that he's a regressing pitcher who allows a lot of contact, it's hard to see him going deeper than five innings.
Fading Kelly is the move in his first start of the season.
Tigers vs Dodgers Prop: Back Flaherty in LA Return
