Astros vs. Orioles Odds & Betting Predictions - August 23, 2024

under when home team shutout Overall: 437-311-42,58% (ROI:12%) Season:26-21-2,55% (ROI:7%)

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Hunter Brown has been one of the more interesting young arms in the league all season, and he's shown huge development following a poor beginning. He flashes his development with a 3.82 ERA and a 3.38 xERA, specifically off the heels of his horrific 9.78 ERA in April. Since then, he hasn't recorded an ERA over 3.53 in any subsequent month. Advanced metrics for Brown back this up: a Stuff+ rating of 103 and Location+ of 101, suggesting solid stuff and above-average control, even if he could stand to improve in his walk rate, which sits at 8.8% and just the 36th percentile. He has, however, been elite in terms of his ability to limit hard contact—rating in the 96th percentile for both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, while his 92nd percentile barrel rate further indicates that he's held up pretty well against big hits. Brown has been quite successful at inducing weak contact, which, combined with his 74th percentile ground ball rate, suggests the Orioles will struggle to drum up much in the way of consistent offense—especially considering Baltimore hasn't been especially fearsome against right-handed pitching. balls in play that stay on the ground aplenty with Brown on the bump. While the Orioles' offense is effective on its part, it generally doesn't have an explosive containment to match up to the strengths of Brown, especially with some key hitters really struggling against righties this season. This should keep the total score in check by virtue of fewer runs expected from the Baltimore side. On the other side, look for some positive regression from Cade Povich, who has a 4.02 xERA against his real 4.58 ERA. Povich has actually been decent at home, despite the losing record, posting a 3.58 ERA over 32 2/3 innings. His ability to preclude walks - though he issued zero in his last start against a tough Boston Red Sox lineup - is key when looking to face an Astros team that makes more hay from free passes than they do from stringing multiple hits together. The Astros have also been weaker against left-handed pitching, right into Povich's strengths. More than that, their OPS against lefties is lower, and with key hitters underperforming against southpaws, one can't envision the breakthrough of Houston for a big offensive night. Moreover, both teams have trended toward the Under recently as each club has gone Under in seven of their last ten outings. This trend is strengthened by the fact that both teams' bullpens have performed well—especially in high-leverage situations. With the profiles of the starters paired with current hitting trends and bullpen effectiveness, there is little choice but to side with the Under in this matchup.

Fliff