The Houston Astros will take on the Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards on Friday night. This is the second game of a four-game series between these two American League playoff contenders. The Astros took the win in Game 1 by a 6-0 score last night.
The Astros have now extended their lead in the AL West to 5.5 games. After a horrid start to the season, this team has rebounded with a vengeance and has been dominating over the last couple of months, getting themselves back into postseason contention.
Baltimore has been battling with the Yankees for both the No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs, as well as the AL East title, for much of the season. The Orioles have slipped as of late and are now 1.5 games back from the division lead. Unfortunately for them, there are a handful of other teams that have found their way into this race, and they have only a two-game lead on the next closest teams in the wild-card race. In fact, they're only 5.5 games above the playoff cutline.
The Houston Astros are -120 favorites tonight on the road in a game with an over/under of 8.5 total runs (-115/-105). Let’s dive into my Astros vs Orioles predictions.
Astros vs. Orioles Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +140 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -165 |
Astros vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| Hunter Brown | Stat | Cade Povich |
|---|---|---|
| 11-7 | W-L | 1-6 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 3.82 / 3.38 | ERA /xERA | 5.77 / 4.02 |
| 3.69 / 3.51 | FIP / xFIP | 5.55 / 5.85 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 1.58 |
| 16.7% | K-BB% | 15.5% |
| 47.7% | GB% | 36.4% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 86 |
| 101 | Location+ | 97 |
Cody Goggin’s Astros vs Orioles Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Brown Back in Control
Hunter Brown will take the mound for the Astros tonight. The righthander had a tough start to the season but now has a 3.82 ERA and a 3.38 xERA. He had a 9.78 ERA in the first month of the season before rebounding by not having an ERA over 3.53 in any subsequent month from that point.
Brown has a Stuff+ of 103 this year and 101 in Location+. He ranks in the 54th percentile in whiff rate and 70th percentile in strikeout rate. He has struggled with his command, ranking in the 36th percentile with a 8.8% walk rate.
Brown has excelled this season in preventing hard contact. He ranks in the 96th percentile in hard hit rate, 92nd percentile in barrel rate, and 96th percentile in average exit velocity. He also is in the 74th percentile in ground ball rate this season as he both limits hard contact and keeps it on the ground.
The Astros’ offense ranks 8th in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA this season. They are 10th in wOBA, 11th in SLG, and 13th in ISO, as they have been a borderline top-10 unit. Houston strikes out at the third-lowest rate in the league but also walks at the fourth-lowest rate, leading to a lot of balls in play.
Houston is 12th in hard hit rate, 15th in barrel rate, and 12th in exit velocity. They are 10th in ground ball rate, which doesn’t do them any favors in terms of power either.
Tonight they’ll be taking on a left-hander pitcher in Cade Povich. They are just a bit worse against lefties this season, but it’s not a concern for me. They are 12th in wRC+ and 14th in wOBA from this side of the plate.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Struggling Rookie Getting Hit
Cade Povich gets the nod for Baltimore tonight. The rookie has struggled this season to the tune of a 5.77 ERA, 5.55 FIP, 5.85 xFIP and 5.58 SIERA. His 4.02 xERA may be the only one of these predictive metrics that gives some semblance of hope.
Povich has a Stuff+ of 86 and Location+ of 97 this season. He has just a 15th percentile whiff rate and 5th percentile strikeout rate as he doesn’t miss many bats. Povich also has an 11.5% walk rate, which ranks in the 12th percentile.
The problem with allowing that much contact is that he doesn’t keep this contact on the ground. Povich ranks in the 16th percentile in ground ball rate. So while he’s 84th percentile in hard hit rate and 66th percentile in average exit velocity, he is just 11th percentile in barrel rate as he allows a lot of balls to get in the air.
Baltimore has one of the best offenses in the league, ranking 2nd in wRC+, 5th in wOBA, 1st in SLG, and 1st in ISO this season. They strike out at the 11th-lowest rate but walk at the ninth-lowest rate. They hit the ball harder than anyone, ranking first in hard hit rate, third in barrel rate, and third in exit velocity.
Astros vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
While Baltimore’s offense is the best unit in this game, I don’t believe the difference in these two offensive units makes up for the difference between Brown and Povich.
Brown is a reliable starter who has been elite this year at preventing hard contact. He strikes batters out at an above-average rate and has solid Stuff+ numbers as well. I think that he should be able to turn in a quality start against the Orioles on the road tonight.
On the other side, I’m just not a fan of Povich. He has not yet shown any indication in his Major League career that he is a reliable starting pitcher. He walks a lot of batters, doesn’t strike anyone out, and allows a lot of barrels, which isn’t the type of pitcher I’m looking to back.
I believe that the Astros should be heavier favorites over the first five innings in this game. Currently, you can take Houston over the first five innings by -0.5 at +114, which is my favorite way to play this game.
Pick: Houston Astros F5 -0.5 (+115 at Caesars Sportsbook, bet to +100)
Moneyline
The Orioles are 37-29 straight up at home this season while the Astros are 34-29 on the road.
The Astros ranks fourth in bullpen ERA this season while the Orioles are 22nd. This is another advantage for Houston once these starters are out of the game.
While I like the F5 lines better on the Astros, I would also take them on the full-game moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
Baltimore has actually been better against the spread (ATS) on the road this year as compared to at home. They are 34-32 ATS at home but 36-27 on the road. Houston is 32-31 ATS on the road this year, so there’s not any sort of trend to take away from either of these sides.
The same reasoning applies here as well, but I would take the Astros on the runline tonight as well. As I’ve already mentioned, I’m not a fan of Povich and find myself wanting to fade him heavily. I would take the Astros here as they could win by multiple runs.
Over/Under
Overs are 31-28-7 in Camden Yards this season. Overall the Orioles are 68-50-11 to the over, but Houston is 50-74-3 on the over, as their games have largely gone under this season.
I don’t have any sort of lean on the total for this game. The line on DraftKings has already moved from 9 down to 8.5 this morning but it’s not a market I’m looking to get involved in on this game.
