2022 PGA Championship Odds & Matchup Pick: How To Bet Daniel Berger

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Welcome to this week’s matchup article for the PGA Championship. With no shortage of captivating storylines, I can’t wait to watch as the drama unfolds this weekend at Southern Hills Country Club.

The 7,500-yard par-70 uses the natural terrain to create a challenging golf course that is littered with thoughtfully placed bunkers. Golfers must have a complete game from tee to green to challenge this track if they want to contend this weekend. My model has identified a matchup that is showing a nice edge over the currently posted line.

To identify these matchups, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.

Below, I have outlined the matchup that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the PGA Championship. I have provided the current line, what my simulations set the line at, and why I believe it is a profitable bet.

Let’s get to it.

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Daniel Berger (+100) over Billy Horschel (DraftKings)

My line: -122

There are some reasons to be concerned about how well Horschel sets up to succeed at Southern Hills, where approach and play around the green will be crucial this week.

Over the last 50 rounds, Horschel ranks 100th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach. The greens are small to begin with, and they play smaller when you take into account the runoffs. Players have mentioned throughout press conferences this week how important approach play will be this week to make sure the ball lands safely on the green.

Horschel is also 63rd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green over the last 50 rounds. The aforementioned runoff areas are likely to produce some tricky situations around the green throughout the week, which means the ability to get up and down will be vital.

The only Strokes Gained category where Horschel has lost strokes over the duration of his career? Around the Green.

Berger, on the other hand, thrives in those areas. He ranked second in Strokes Gained: Approach and 22nd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green over the last 50 rounds. He also is fourth in bogey avoidance and scrambling, which gives me confidence that he’ll be able to navigate his way through any potential trouble if he misses a green.

Berger has the complete game that Southern Hills will demand this week and is clearly much better suited to attack this course than Horschel. I’ll happily take him at a plus-money number.

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