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2022 PGA Championship Odds & Matchup Pick: How To Bet Daniel Berger

2022 PGA Championship Odds & Matchup Pick: How To Bet Daniel Berger article feature image
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Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Daniel Berger.

Click arrow to expand 2022 PGA Championship odds via BetMGM

2022 PGA Championship Odds

Golfer Odds
Jon Rahm +1200
Scottie Scheffler +1200
Justin Thomas +1600
Rory McIlroy +1600
Collin Morikawa +2000
Jordan Spieth +2000
Cameron Smith +2200
Patrick Cantlay +2200
Dustin Johnson +2500
Viktor Hovland +2500
Xander Schauffele +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Shane Lowry +3500
Will Zalatoris +3500
Brooks Koepka +4000
Joaquin Niemann +4000
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Daniel Berger +5000
Tony Finau +5000
Bryson DeChambeau +6600
Corey Conners +6600
Max Homa +6600
Tyrrell Hatton +6600
Tiger Woods +6600
Abraham Ancer +8000
Cameron Young +8000
Jason Day +8000
Louis Oosthuizen +8000
Tommy Fleetwood +8000
Adam Scott +8000
Keegan Bradley +8000
Billy Horschel +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Harold Varner III +10000
Jason Kokrak +10000
Russell Henley +10000
Sergio Garcia +10000
Talor Gooch +10000
Marc Leishman +12500
Maverick McNealy +12500
Patrick Reed +12500
Seamus Power +12500
Si Woo Kim +12500
Aaron Wise +15000
Alex Noren +15000
Brian Harman +15000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +15000
Davis Riley +15000
Justin Rose +15000
K.H. Lee +15000
Kevin Na +15000
Matt Kuchar +15000
Matthew Wolff +15000
Mito Pereira +15000
Rickie Fowler +15000
Sebastian Munoz +15000
Thomas Pieters +15000
Webb Simpson +15000
Charl Schwartzel +15000
Cameron Champ +15000
Jhonattan Vegas +15000
Adam Hadwin +20000
Bubba Watson +20000
Chris Kirk +20000
Erik van Rooyen +20000
Ian Poulter +20000
J.J. Spaun +20000
Lanto Griffin +20000
Luke List +20000
Robert Macintyre +20000
Ryan Palmer +20000
Tom Hoge +20000
Bernd Wiesberger +25000
Cam Davis +25000
Cameron Tringale +25000
Francesco Molinari +25000
Joohyung Kim +25000
Keith Mitchell +25000
Kevin Kisner +25000
Kevin Streelman +25000
Mackenzie Hughes +25000
Sam Horsfield +25000
Sepp Straka +25000
Troy Merritt +25000
Joel Dahmen +25000
Adria Arnaus +30000
Anirban Lahiri +30000
Branden Grace +30000
Carlos Ortiz +30000
Lee Westwood +30000
Lucas Glover +30000
Lucas Herbert +30000
Matt Jones +30000
Min Woo Lee +30000
Oliver Bekker +30000
Pablo Larrazabal +30000
Stewart Cink +30000
Zach Johnson +30000
Brendan Steele +30000
Russell Knox +30000
Scott Stallings +30000
Harry Higgs +35000
Patton Kizzire +35000
Ryan Fox +35000
Chad Ramey +40000
Dean Burmester +40000
Garrick Higgo +40000
Henrik Stenson +40000
Hudson Swafford +40000
Jinichiro Kozuma +40000
Justin Harding +40000
Martin Kaymer +40000
Nicolai Hojgaard +40000
Rikuya Hoshino +40000
Ryosuke Kinoshita +40000
Beau Hossler +40000
Adam Schenk +40000
Bio Kim +50000
Chan Kim +50000
Daniel van Tonder +50000
Jason Dufner +50000
Laurie Canter +50000
Padraig Harrington +50000
Richard Bland +50000
Sadom Kaewkanjana +50000
Shaun Norris +50000
Takumi Kanaya +50000
Yuki Inamori +50000
Kramer Hickok +50000
Ryan Brehm +75000
Dylan Newman +100000
Jared Jones +100000
Jesse Mueller +100000
John Daly +100000
Kyle Mendoza +100000
Matt Borchert +100000
Michael Block +100000
Nic Ishee +100000
Paul Dickinson +100000
Rich Beem +100000
Ryan Vermeer +100000
Sean McCarty +100000
Shaun Micheel +100000
Shawn Warren +100000
Tim Feenstra +100000
Tyler Collet +100000
Wyatt Worthington ll +100000
Y.E. Yang +100000
Zac Oakley +100000
Alex Beach +150000
Austin Hurt +150000
Bet at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

Welcome to this week’s matchup article for the PGA Championship. With no shortage of captivating storylines, I can’t wait to watch as the drama unfolds this weekend at Southern Hills Country Club.

The 7,500-yard par-70 uses the natural terrain to create a challenging golf course that is littered with thoughtfully placed bunkers. Golfers must have a complete game from tee to green to challenge this track if they want to contend this weekend. My model has identified a matchup that is showing a nice edge over the currently posted line.

To identify these matchups, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.

Below, I have outlined the matchup that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the PGA Championship. I have provided the current line, what my simulations set the line at, and why I believe it is a profitable bet.

Let’s get to it.

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Daniel Berger (+100) over Billy Horschel (DraftKings)

My line: -122

There are some reasons to be concerned about how well Horschel sets up to succeed at Southern Hills, where approach and play around the green will be crucial this week.

Over the last 50 rounds, Horschel ranks 100th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach. The greens are small to begin with, and they play smaller when you take into account the runoffs. Players have mentioned throughout press conferences this week how important approach play will be this week to make sure the ball lands safely on the green.

Horschel is also 63rd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green over the last 50 rounds. The aforementioned runoff areas are likely to produce some tricky situations around the green throughout the week, which means the ability to get up and down will be vital.

The only Strokes Gained category where Horschel has lost strokes over the duration of his career? Around the Green.

Berger, on the other hand, thrives in those areas. He ranked second in Strokes Gained: Approach and 22nd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green over the last 50 rounds. He also is fourth in bogey avoidance and scrambling, which gives me confidence that he’ll be able to navigate his way through any potential trouble if he misses a green.

Berger has the complete game that Southern Hills will demand this week and is clearly much better suited to attack this course than Horschel. I’ll happily take him at a plus-money number.

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