For the sixth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
After a decent stretch, we whiffed last week with a pair of home dogs that came up just short in Arizona State and Missouri, which also suffered one of the worst beats of the weekend against the actual number.
- 2018-22: 60-98, +8.3 units
- 2023: 5-7, +2.05 units
- Overall: 65-103, +10.35 units
This week, Collin and I are rolling with a pair of prime-time pups. If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both dogs pays just under 8-1 odds.
Stuckey: Pitt +250
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -320 |
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +250 |
Pittsburgh finds itself in one of the best situational spots of the weekend against a Louisville team that just upset Notre Dame at home in a hyped spot. The Cardinals will now try to avoid a letdown in their seventh game in seven weeks against a Panthers squad coming off a bye week after a horrid start to the year.
That extra time to rest up, make changes and prepare for this ACC clash can only lead to good things for a Pittsburgh offense that has completely flopped to start the season.
As a result of the extreme ineptitude on that side of the ball, the Panthers benched quarterback Phil Jurkovec and turned to Christian Veilleux under center.
It's hard to forecast what we'll get from the Penn State transfer, but it can't get any worse than Jurkovec, who PFF has rated 121st out of 131 quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps.
Plus, when it comes to identifying potential value with a moneyline underdog, uncertainty is a positive factor, which we certainly have here in addition to a potential element of surprise with Louisville not having much film on what Pitt might do on offense after making some other changes on the depth chart to boot.
Additionally, Louisville's win over Notre Dame didn't blow me away by any stretch.
I believe that result spoke more about an exhausted Irish team in a brutal spot of their own after a grueling stretch of games. The fatigue was noticeable for an Irish team that turned it over five times and inexplicably decided to rotate offensive linemen throughout the game, which led to disastrous results.
I also just haven't really been impressed with Louisville's overall body of work.
The Cardinals easily could've lost to a Georgia Tech team that has since demoted its defensive coordinator, an Indiana team that recently fired its offensive coordinator and an NC State team that recently changed quarterbacks.
Lastly, after five more takeaways last week, Louisville now ranks third in FBS with 14 turnovers. In comparison, Pitt has four, so potential looming turnover regression could work in the home team's favor, especially against a quarterback in Jack Plummer who ranks outside the top 100 in turnover-worthy play percentage among 135 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season.
Ultimately, Pitt was an easy moneyline underdog choice for me this week since I show value in this number, love the spot and like the added uncertainty of a new quarterback under center. The Panthers seem to get one of these upsets each year under head coach Pat Narduzzi, so hopefully this is the week.
Wilson: UCLA +165
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
The addition of D’Anton Lynn as defensive coordinator has changed the makeup of the UCLA Bruins. Michigan laid the template for improving defensive efficiency by dipping into the Baltimore Ravens' staff to find coordinators such as Mike MacDonald and Jesse Minter.
Now, UCLA is on the fast track to replicate that success with Lynn and his heavy 4-2-5 and 4-3 scheme that brings plenty of blitzes to complement a dominant defensive front.
The results speak for themselves, as the Bruins rank top 10 in Defensive Havoc, coverage grading, Quality Drives and Finishing Drives. Opponents are failing to get down the field and don't often convert those rare opportunities into points.
Quarterback Dante Moore entered the season with the highest accolades for a blue-chip freshman. There have been some extreme freshman moments, including pick-sixes against Washington State and Utah.
However, underneath the highlight reels that show the mistakes, the numbers for the true freshman have been above average. Moore has a 14:6 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio on the season, experiencing a minimal drop in adjusted completion percentage when pressured.
Enter the Oregon State defense, which struggles to generate a pass rush and provides one of the worst tackle grades of all Power 5 defenses.
The strength of this Oregon State team comes in the rushing attack led by quarterback DJ Uiagalelei and a very good offensive line. The Clemson transfer found a bit of explosiveness in the air against the Cal defense, but there are no expectations that he can repeat that performance.
Uiagalelei has been fantastic against cover 3, the primary coverage used by Cal. However, the UCLA defense will combat with a heavy amount of cover 1 that will zap the explosiveness from Oregon State's air attack.
Meanwhile, UCLA's strong run defense can grind in the trench against the elite Beavers rushing attack, slowing them down on early downs and then unleashing a pass rush from edge Laiatu Latu and company on passing downs.
Look for the UCLA defense to be the main driver in siloing Oregon State as a one-dimensional offense. Advantages exist for Moore to play a clean game without Havoc interruption, which should lead to a slight Bruin upset in Corvallis.
More From the "Big Bets on Campus" Podcast
 |  |  |
