Louisville Cardinals Odds

I’ve had this spot circled for weeks. Imagine if I showed you this line in the off season. You probably would have put your rent on the Tigers. Well, here we are with two teams that have had drastically different seasons. Clemson entered the year as National Championship contenders, but we all know how that has gone. Meanwhile, Louisville has shocked a lot of people with how their season has unfolded. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they controlled their own destiny to the ACC Championship last week but lost as 18 point favorites to California at home. It was a demoralizing loss for Louisville, who clearly overlooked a bad Cal team. Louisville went from a potential College Football Playoff team to one that now needs plenty of help just to make the ACC Championship game. They now sit with the 6th best odds to get there. Talk about a brutal turn of events. This is something a model can’t properly calculate. Another thing a model can’t fully factor is the impact of RB Isaac Brown, whose absence has clearly been felt. He missed last week’s loss with an injury and will miss today’s game. The offense runs through Brown, and losing him is a big blow for the Cardinals. Brown ran for 151 yards last year against Clemson. I’ve given Miller Moss praise a few times this season, but I’ve been pretty unimpressed as of late. Despite what many thought, the Clemson defense hasn’t given up on Dabo Swinney. They showed an inspired performance last week, allowing just 10 points to Florida State. This was the type of performance we were expecting from this unit all season. Clemson’s defense is littered with NFL talent. Avieon Terrell, TJ Parker, and Peter Woods are all NFL bound next year and are putting the finishing touches on their college tapes for scouts. I think this Clemson team is as motivated as ever to right the ship on a lost season and show how good they still can be. We also have to remember how unlucky Clemson has been. They rank as the third unluckiest team in our NCAAF luck rankings. One of their losses came with a backup quarterback under center, and in three of the others they were simply on the wrong side of a one score game. Clemson has four wins but 6.1 dWIN (deserved wins). This team is not nearly as bad as their record suggests. QB Cade Klubnik hasn’t given up on the season either. Since Clemson’s Week 5 bye, the offense with Klubnik is averaging 37 points per game. The Louisville defense is good, but they also have injury concerns. AJ Green and Tayon Holloway come into this game banged up and questionable. The defense is Louisville’s strength, but key injuries could lessen their impact against a very good Clemson offense. As mentioned, the Louisville rushing attack is their bread and butter, but without Isaac Brown, more weight falls on Miller Moss’s shoulders. Moss has just an 11 to 7 TD-to-INT ratio this season. Clemson’s defense has been gashed through the air at times, but Louisville’s passing attack grades out at just 63.6 (90th). I don’t think Louisville has the proper tools to fully expose Clemson’s secondary. This is also a revenge spot for Clemson after Louisville came into Death Valley last season and beat them 33–21 in a game that was never close. Clemson has three games left and needs to win two to become bowl eligible. This is a big game for Clemson despite the season feeling lost. Forget the points, I think Clemson comes into Louisville under the primetime lights and gets the win.