NCAAF Odds, Picks: Wednesday Bets for FIU vs UTEP, New Mexico State vs Sam Houston
Getty Images. Design by Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network.
Wednesday. Night. Football.
After a three-game slate on Tuesday, midweek college football action rolls on with two more games on the beautiful October Wednesday.
First, the UTEP Miners and FIU Panthers meet in Miami as both teams look to pick up their first conference win of the season. Then, to close it out, Sam Houston hopes to win its first game of the season — and first game since moving up to the FBS level — when it takes on New Mexico State in Las Cruces.
Our college football writers broke down both games with an in-depth betting preview and came through with a pick for each. Let's enjoy this college football Wednesday — and hopefully, we'll see you in Green Dot City.
Wednesday NCAAF Betting Previews
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups from Wednesday's college football slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 9 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
UTEP vs. FIU
Maximize your Wednesday night action with our FanDuel promo code.
The Florida International Panthers welcome the University of Texas at El Paso Miners to Riccardo Silva Stadium in Miami, Florida, for a Week 7 Conference USA matchup.
UTEP enters this matchup with a rough 1-5 record with its lone win coming at home against Incarnate Word. That's led to an 0-2 record to start conference play following a Week 1 loss at Jacksonville State and a loss last week to Louisiana Tech at home.
FIU hasn’t had an easy path thus far either. The Panthers sit at 3-3 with an 0-3 start to conference play that saw losses at Louisiana Tech, at New Mexico State and at home against Liberty.
Both teams enter this game looking to get that first conference win under their belt, so let’s take a look at who holds the advantage in this Wednesday night bout between UTEP and FIU.
UTEP enters this game looking to climb the Conference USA standings after finishing 5-7 last season and 3-5 in conference play.
Head coach Dana Dimel leads this team again for his sixth season in El Paso, and he looks to get his team back on track.
However, this UTEP offense is just not getting it done this season. The Miners lack explosiveness offensively, ranking 87th nationally, and have not had much success on the ground or through the air, ranking 78th and 112th in Success Rate, respectively.
Dimel loves to run the football, as this team keeps it on the ground at the 48th-highest rate in the country. It's going to need some improved play out of the offensive line to help open up some big holes for starting running back Deion Hankins to run through.
With Gavin Hardison under center, the passing offense hasn't been great, thanks in large part to his 5:7 touchdown-to-interceptions ratio. Hardison's status is unknown due to injury, and with backups Kevin Hurley and Jake McNamara also getting hit by the injury bug, it could be fourth-stringer Cade McConnell who gets the start in this one.
With a background as a running backs coach, Dimel will look to get Hankins as many touches as he can to maintain possession and keep the ball away from FIU.
The Miner defense has not been much better than their offense, currently ranking 90th in Defensive Success Rate. Fortunately, for this UTEP defense, it's been solid against the pass, coming in with a Success Rate ranking of 59th against the pass.
Now, this may be a bit skewed given the Miners are 1-5 and have been trailing most of their games, which has led to teams being a bit more run-heavy. However, UTEP should still be able to slow the FIU pass offense, although it will need to play better at the line of scrimmage in order to halt the Panthers' run game.
The Panthers need a win in conference play badly after their 0-3 start.
FIU is coming off a bad loss at New Mexico State in which quarterback Keyone Jenkins threw two interceptions and no touchdowns.
The defense did not do its part either, giving up 34 points and allowing 5.9 yards per carry last week. The Panthers offense will look to clean up the turnovers, while the defense hopes to firm up its run defense in this matchup.
This Panthers offense just struggles to put up points, averaging 21 points per game while ranking 110th in Offensive Success Rate.
This team has just not hit its stride with Jenkins at the helm. After a relatively hot start to the season, the freshman from Miami has a 5:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has thrown three picks without a touchdown in his last two games. That kind of turnover margin will not help this struggling offense.
Jenkins has had similar struggles to UTEP’s Hardison. FIU will likely look to run the ball as well to help out its young quarterback and maintain possession while staying away from third-and-longs.
Defensively, this FIU team has been much better than the offense.
Defensive-minded head coach Mike MacIntyre has led this pass defense to rank 33rd in Success Rate against the air attack. This should help them absolutely shut down a UTEP passing game that has struggled.
Unfortunately for FIU, its rush defense ranks just 78th and struggles against heavy run teams. The Panthers will need to pick up some early-down stops against UTEP and force them into throws, so the FIU pass defense could play a key role in this game.
UTEP vs FIU
Betting Pick & Prediction
These teams have both struggled offensively, and they can hold their own defensively to keep themselves in games.
I expect a heavy dose of run offensively for both teams to protect their offenses from turnover-prone quarterbacks, which should chew up the clock and keep this game pretty low-scoring.
I'd take this game to go under 44 points and would play it to 43.
Sam Houston vs. New Mexico
Use our BetMGM bonus code for your new user welcome offer
By Cody Goggin
This Wednesday night, we will see the Sam Houston Bearkats (0-5) travel to Las Cruces to take on the New Mexico State Aggies (3-3) in Conference USA action.
This is a brand-new conference matchup, as Sam Houston continues its first year in CUSA and FBS. This adjustment has been tough for the Bearkats, but I believe this team is better than their 0-5 record shows due to the brutal schedule they've faced.
Let’s take a look at where I think the edge is for Sam Houston vs. New Mexico in this college football betting preview for Wednesday, Oct. 11.
The first thing you would notice when looking to handicap this game is how terrible the Sam Houston offense appears. It ranks 133rd in SP+ offensively and also sits dead last in Offensive Success Rate. The Bearkats are also 131st in Passing Success Rate and 132nd in Rushing Success Rate.
It would be an understatement to say that things have not gone well for them on this side of the ball.
However, the strength of schedule they've played is partly to blame for this. SHSU has played games against BYU, Air Force, Houston, Jacksonville State and Liberty. These teams all have strong defenses, and most of them have players who compete at a much higher level than what Sam Houston will be facing this weekend.
Against teams with a similar talent level, we saw Sam Houston take Jacksonville State to overtime before falling by a touchdown. In that game, SHSU posted a Success Rate 41st percentile, which is its highest mark of the season.
Liberty also defeated SHSU by just five points, but the Bearkats had a 33rd-percentile Offensive Success Rate.
Neither of those numbers are fantastic, but I think they show that this offense isn’t completely inept against teams that aren’t outmatching them physically.
The defensive side of the ball has been the bright spot for the Bearkats. Despite playing a tough schedule, they still rank 62nd defensively, per SP+.
The Kats rank 49th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 46th against the run. Their 80.4 PFF tackling grade — which ranks 22nd in the country — will come in handy against this New Mexico State running attack.
New Mexico State has run the ball at the 24th-highest rate in FBS, resulting in the country's third-best Success Rate and fourth-best PPA.
This gives the appearance that this team has improved, but I think its success can be attributed to the schedule it's faced. The Aggies have played only one team this season with a defense that ranks in the top 115 in SP+. The rushing defenses for these teams have all been particularly poor as well.
I do think there's a chance that we see this rushing attack shine through, but I also think there's a chance it could be stymied by a Sam Houston defense that's one of the best it's faced this year.
On the defensive side of the ball, New Mexico State has not been quite as good. The Aggies rank 107th in Success Rate and 91st in Finishing Drives. They're 102nd in Success Rate against the pass and 97th against the run, so they don’t have a particular strength to lean on here.
This unit ranks 128th in the country, per SP+, so it will be the worst defense that Sam Houston has faced this year by far.
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Sam Houston has had a tough start to its FBS transition, but the Bearkats' schedule has done them no favors. New Mexico State’s defense will give SHSU some breathing room, so I believe it will post its best offensive performance of the season.
This Bearkats defense has been suffocating, even against the much more talented teams on their schedule. While the NMSU rushing attack gives me some pause, Sam Houston’s defense is strong and should give the Aggies some trouble.
I like SHSU getting three and the hook here. This team will be competitive and may even find a way to pick up its first win since moving up to the FBS ranks.
In a non-legal betting state? Use our promo code for PrizePicks to play real-money daily fantasy sports that gets you in the action for your favorite teams!
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
