College Football Picks, Odds: How We’re Betting Wednesday’s 2 MACtion Games
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- The last Wednesday night MACtion slate of the 2023 college football season is here.
- Wednesday's slate features two games: Ohio vs Central Michigan and Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo.
- Check out our picks for both Wednesday night college football games below.
The last Wednesday night MACtion slate of the 2023 college football season is upon us.
It's been a beautiful stretch of bad offense, poor defense and even more atrocious special teams —but that's what makes it so hard to say goodbye.
It's not over yet, though. We still have time to make the most of midweek MACtion.
Wednesday's MAC college football slate features two games: Ohio vs. Central Michigan and Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo.
Our college football writers broke down both games with an in-depth betting preview and came through with a pick for both Wednesday night showdowns. So, let's dive into the analysis — and hopefully we'll close this year's Wednesday action with a couple of winners.
Wednesday College Football Betting Previews
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups from Wednesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Central Michigan vs. Ohio
Central Michigan and Ohio meet in Athens in a very important game for the Chippewas.
CMU enters this game at 5-5, needing just one more win to become bowl-eligible. It was unable to pick up that victory last week against Western Michigan, losing 38-28.
The Chips are pretty sizable underdogs here, and if they don't come through, they'll have one last opportunity against Akron to close out their regular season next week.
Ohio is on the outside looking in at the MAC Championship. It's trailing Miami (OH) in the standings by one game, but the RedHawks hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over them.
The Bobcats need to win their final two games and hope that Miami (OH) drops its last two to Buffalo and Ball State.
Where does the betting value lie in this Wednesday night MACtion matchup? Let's dive into the Central Michigan vs. Ohio odds and find a pick and prediction.
Central Michigan is really going to have a tough time moving the ball on one of the best defenses in the MAC.
CMU quarterback Jase Bauer has really struggled, as he averages only 6.4 yards per attempt and has 10 turnover-worthy plays compared to nine big-time throws.
There are 146 quarterbacks in FBS who have attempted at least 100 passes this season. Of those 146, Bauer ranks 107th in EPA and 109th in completion percentage. That's a problem going up against an Ohio secondary that allows only 6.3 yards per attempt and sits top-25 in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Central Michigan hasn't really run the ball effectively either. Marion Lukes has put up 349 rushing yards in his last two games, but the Chippewas are still outside the top 50 in Rushing Success Rate.
Most importantly for CMU, though, is it hasn't taken advantage of its scoring opportunities. The Chippewas rank 117th in Finishing Drives, which is bad when they're already struggling to move the ball.
Central Michigan lost pretty handily last week against Western Michigan and will see some of the same problems against Ohio on Wednesday.
The Chippewas' weakness defensively is in their secondary. They allowed Western Michigan quarterback Hayden Wolff to go 25-for-36 for 333 yards and three touchdowns. For the season, they're 125th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 127th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke is really the only reason the Bobcats offense is successful — because they can't run the ball. Rourke may not be lighting teams up downfield, but he's efficient.
The Bobcats rank 22nd in Passing Success Rate, and Rourke has a 50% positive EPA/Play Percentage, which sits 21st in the country.
As a team, though, Ohio is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry on the ground and ranks outside the top 70 in both Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards. So, the pressure is going to be on Rourke to move the ball.
The real reason why Ohio is 7-3 on the season is because of its defense, which is the best in the MAC.
The front seven has been incredible, allowing only 3.4 yards per carry. That unit has been stuffing everything at the line of scrimmage while ranking 11th in Defensive Line Yards and eighth in Stuff Rate.
That's great news in this matchup given Bauer's limitations as a passer this season.
The Bobcats' secondary has been stellar as well, ranking inside the top 30 in both Passing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed. So, they really should be able to shut down the Chippewas offense.
Most importantly, Ohio sits second in the country in Finishing Drives Allowed with their opponents averaging only 2.31 points on drives that end inside the Bobcats' 40-yard line.
Central Michigan vs Ohio
Betting Pick & Prediction
This game has "blowout" written all over it.
Central Michigan can't stop anything at the moment, and with all of its struggles in the secondary, Rourke should have a huge game.
Even though Ohio has struggled to run the ball, the fact that Central Michigan allows 4.7 yards per carry doesn't give me much confidence that it's actually going to slow down a Bobcat offense that's still top-50 in Success Rate.
On the other side, I don't know how Central Michigan is going to move the ball effectively if it can't run the ball.
Miami (OH) and San Diego State are the only two teams to run for over 150 yards against Ohio's defense, which means the Chippewas' offensive success is going to be in Bauer's hands. That's not a good scenario given how bad he's been as a passer this season.
I have Ohio projected as a -17.5 favorite, so I like the value on the Bobcats at -10.5 at FanDuel.
Pick: Ohio -10.5
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Buffalo vs. Miami (OH)
By John Feltman
It's sad to say this is the last Wednesday of MACtion of the year, so let's hope we can end today on a profitable note. Let's head back out to Oxford, Ohio, where the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks will host the Buffalo Bulls.
This is a huge game for the RedHawks, as they can punch their ticket to the MAC Championship if they win their remaining two games. As for the Bulls, it's been a dreadful season that seems to be sputtering out of control as of late.
Let's break down this MACtion showdown and find some betting value with my top Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) pick prediction for Wednesday, Nov. 15.
I'll admit, the Bulls definitely deserved to cover last week's game against Ohio. They won the total yards battle, 295-236, but still somehow managed to lose by 10.
I didn't take much away from last week's performance, especially since the Bulls were anemic on offense throughout most of the game. Each time they crossed the 50-yard line, it's almost as if they forgot how to play football.
Sadly, things won't get easier for them this week against another strong defensive unit.
I'm starting to run out of adjectives and expletives to describe how awful this Buffalo offense is.
The Bulls are one of the worst teams in the nation in Line Yards and Passing Success Rate, finding themselves in the bottom 25 of both categories.
They'll also be at a huge special teams disadvantage in this spot, as the RedHawks have a top-five unit in the entire nation. The kicking situation has been a real issue and could cost Buffalo a cover in what should be a lower-scoring game.
Defensively, I think the Bulls could contain this RedHawks offense a bit, as we know quarterback Brett Gabbert is done for the year. The Bulls are a top-35 team in terms of Defensive Passing Success Rate, so the RedHawks will most likely lean on their ground attack.
The Bulls rank top-15 in Defensive Line Yards — if they're going to win this game, it'll be because of this defensive front. The issue is the fact that Buffalo quarterback Cole Snyder is a walking turnover, so the RedHawks could have shorter fields to work with.
A big area of concern is the Bulls' ability to tackle. This is one of the worst tackling teams in the entire country, and this could allow the RedHawks to extend some drives and put touchdowns on the scoreboard.
The RedHawks improved to 5-0 against the spread as a favorite last week, and they will look to continue that trend on Wednesday evening. I don't think motivation will be a factor since the RedHawks need to win to clinch a spot in the MAC Championship game.
Their defense once again impressed last week with a 19-0 victory over Akron. They were dominant from the opening kick, holding the Zips to 212 total yards.
This defensive unit finds itself ranked inside the top 40 in a few key categories, including Rushing Success Rate, Quality Drives Allowed and PFF tackle grading.
Plus, this Bulls offense is a complete disaster, so I doubt the RedHawks will allow many explosive plays.
Offensively, I do have some questions — not only for this game but moving forward.
Gabbert was a massive loss for this offense. Luckily for Miami, it won't need to score too many points to take care of business. I could easily see this being a contest with a final score of 13-3.
I'd expect the defense to carry the RedHawks in this matchup, as it should be able to force a few mistakes from Snyder.
This home crowd should also be juiced up with a spot in the MAC Championship on the line.
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Buffalo vs Miami (OH)
Betting Pick & Prediction
I love the RedHawks in this game and believe they'll be able to take care of business at home.
I already mentioned their 5-0 ATS record as a favorite, but there are too many advantages for this defense to allow the Bulls to cover this number.
The under isn't a bad play, but I have a hunch Snyder is going to be forced into making a few too many turnover-worthy plays, which could lead to some easy scores for this RedHawks offense.
Plus, I can't put any faith in the Bulls offense to do any damage in this game.
The home crowd should be a huge advantage for the RedHawks, and they should dominate from the opening kick with a stellar showing from the defense.
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