USC vs Oregon Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 76.5 -115o / -105u | +550 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 76.5 -115o / -105u | -800 |
Let's take a look at the USC vs. Oregon odds and make a pick for Saturday's Pac-12 After Dark college football matchup.
The Pac-12 Conference is in the home stretch with two College Football Playoff contenders.
The nation's Power 5 membership on the West Coast is known for crowning a conference champion with two losses, thus negating any chances of competing for a national title.
For the first time since 2016, Oregon and Washington are in the driver's seat to reach one of the national semifinal games in the Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl.
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning is in his second season in Eugene, entering Week 11 with a single loss and a 7-1-1 record against the spread. The Ducks have dominated in recent games, beating Utah and Cal by a combined 63 points.
To the surprise of many preseason polls, USC is out of the race for the national title. The Trojans suffered a loss at home to Washington in Week 10, all but pushing a trip to Las Vegas to compete for the conference title out of reach.
With a loss to Utah in the standings, USC would need a bevy of low-probability events to happen to compete for the Pac-12.
The biggest handicap in this game comes from a motivation perspective for head coach Lincoln Riley.
Action Network's own Brett McMurphy projects the Trojans to compete in the Holiday Bowl, a disappointing outcome for a team full of blue-chip players who had hopes of hoisting the National Championship trophy in Houston.
USC Trojans
The firing of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch leads the news in Southern California. The embattled DC was a success in his first coordinator position at Washington State, finishing with surprising top-25 ranks in Havoc.
After a season as an assistant at Ohio State, Grinch moved on to Riley's staff at Oklahoma. The Sooners saw improvement in 2019 after a disastrous defensive effort in a Rose Bowl in which Georgia scored more than 50 points.
Grinch left for USC with Riley but failed to provide any resistance against the high-powered offenses of the Pac-12.
Here’s Lincoln Riley explaining what ultimately convinced him the decision to fire DC Alex Grinch needed to happen now. #USC
Full video of his 12-minute press conference and transcript of his comments in the link ⬇️https://t.co/WnynsZLhxTpic.twitter.com/MgTLtLFio3
— Ryan Young (@RyanYoungRivals) November 7, 2023
Interim co-defensive coordinators Brian Odom and Shaun Nua have been tapped to lead a unit that ranks outside the top 100 in allowing explosives, Quality Drives and penalties.
The tandem is not expected to change any schematics from a 3-3-5 and 2-4-5 personnel that consistently plays Cover 1, Cover 3 and quarters.
Nua and Odom have both mentioned that their primary objective heading to Autzen Stadium is to create awareness and generate a spark with the starters.
Caleb Williams was the most-talked-about quarterback in the nation after the loss to Washington, having an emotional moment with his mother postgame.
After a small decline in production against Arizona and Notre Dame, Williams has carried the USC offense on his back the past three games. The reigning Heisman winner has posted an 11:3 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio in games against Utah, Cal and Washington.
This is the highest-ranked offense in standard downs explosives, but the back end of November and a projected non-New Years Six bowl for USC are sure to be on Williams' mind through the toughest portion of the schedule.
Oregon Ducks
Is there a better one-loss team in the nation than Oregon? The College Football Playoff selection committee continues to make a strong case for the Ducks.
With Michigan and Ohio State scheduled to play in Week 13, the path is clear for Oregon to sweep the remainder of its schedule and attend a semifinal game in the Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl.
The Ducks have had two close calls all season, an early eight-point win at Texas Tech and a field goal loss at Washington, preceded by failed fourth-down attempts.
Oregon is the hottest team in the country, led by Heisman contender Bo Nix.
2nd & 37?
No problem for Bo Nix and Oregon ✅ pic.twitter.com/FUb2ikIQ1e
— Action Network Colleges (@ActionColleges) November 4, 2023
The statistics are piling up for the quarterback, who leads the nation in adjusted completion percentage. No player in college football with at least 300 dropbacks has a lower turnover-worthy play rate than the Oregon quarterback, according to PFF.
There was a change in philosophy from a season ago when Nix dealt with a high ankle sprain in November. Lanning and offensive coordinator Will Stein modified the number of times Nix would leave the pocket, with 41 designed runs in 2022 versus just seven this season.
While Oregon is an offensive juggernaut in all phases, Lanning was brought to Oregon to replicate the defenses he called as defensive coordinator at Georgia.
The multiple nickel package veers between two- and three-man fronts, sending blitz on 34% of snaps while flashing Cover 1 and quarters. The Ducks are top-10 nationally in Defensive Passing Success Rate, ranking top-25 in both Quality and Finishing Drives.
In a conference full of explosives, Oregon has allowed just 10 passes to exceed 30 yards. The Ducks have two of the highest-graded safeties in the nation in Steve Stephens IV and Evan Williams.
USC vs Oregon
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USC and Oregon match up statistically:
USC Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 32 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 58 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 7 | |
| Havoc | 32 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 4 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 30 | 17 | |
Oregon Offense vs. USC Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 104 | |
| Line Yards | 3 | 90 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 40 | |
| Quality Drives | 2 | 109 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 102 | 6 |
| PFF Coverage | 47 | 27 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 88 | 18 |
| Middle 8 | 66 | 4 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.0 (50) | 26.7 (65) |
| Rush Rate | 45.9% (117) | 47.3% (97) |
USC vs Oregon
Betting Pick & Prediction
No team with national title aspirations is playing better than Oregon, which has generated a 7-1-1 record against the spread with an average cover margin of 10.5 points.
The defensive coaching change at USC was long overdue, but a game plan that hopes to simply find a spark without changing schematics could be a recipe for disaster.
Oregon comes in as the No. 1 team in pressures allowed and on-target passing, a metric that counts throws at the highest level of accuracy.
Those ranks may be assisted by the dip in Nix's average depth of target, but the super senior has been just as lethal in downfield passing.
Action Network projects Oregon by just 13 points with a total of 71.5.
The biggest handicap in this game is the number of possessions and the Trojans' ability to keep up. Both of these teams have played Washington, and there's a high probability that Oregon and USC will have 11 offensive possessions.
The biggest contrast in this game is Oregon's rank in Defensive Quality Drives. The Ducks are 16th defensively in drives that gain 25 yards or less. That number takes a strong dip with the Trojans' rank at 113th.
Oregon has surrendered just 26 red-zone attempts this season, allowing the 18th-lowest rate of touchdowns.
Look for the Oregon defense to limit scoring opportunities for USC as the Ducks advance one step closer to the College Football Playoff.
Pick: Under 73 or Better
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