Notre Dame vs. USC Betting Odds, Prediction: Our Spread & Over/Under Best Bets
Getty Images. Design by Matt Roembke/Action Network. Pictured: USC quarterback Caleb Williams (left) and Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman (right).
Notre Dame vs. USC Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -142 |
We’ve got another edition of one of the most historic rivalries in college football on Saturday night when USC heads east to South Bend to take on Notre Dame.
Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams were victorious in last year’s meeting between these two — a game the Trojans pulled out, 38-27, in Los Angeles.
Southern Cal remains unblemished on the year, but the results have definitely not been as smooth as SC fans would like.
USC was in tight games with Arizona State and Colorado in recent weeks before really flirting with disaster last Saturday at home to Arizona.
Meanwhile, things looked promising for the Irish to start the year, but a heartbreaker against Ohio State completely flipped the tone of the season.
ND did pull out a tight one on the road the following week at Duke, but the Irish seemingly ran out of gas in a raucous environment in Louisville last Saturday night. The Cardinals controlled that game from start to finish, essentially ending Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff hopes along the way.
Marcus Freeman’s team now heads home searching for answers after its offense was stymied by the Louisville front last week.
Saturday’s showdown remains very intriguing, with Notre Dame now having a chance to play spoiler and put a big dent in USC’s postseason dreams.
The Trojans will look to add an impressive road victory to their resume over an arch-rival before shifting focus to a critical stretch in Pac-12 play.
The Irish opened as a short favorite in this matchup, and the total currently sits right around 60.
Let’s discuss how our staff feels about this one from a betting perspective.
Notre Dame vs. USC Spread
Split Decision
As a staff, we're pretty much as close to a 50/50 split as you can get here. That checks out, as there are reasons to be concerned about both USC and Notre Dame ahead of this showdown.
For the Trojans, look no further than last week when it took three overtimes for USC to survive Arizona at home. The Wildcats outgained Southern Cal, going for over 500 yards of offense on the road.
This has been a theme for Alex Grinch’s defense throughout the season. The secondary continues to show its vulnerability and the front seven doesn't generate much Havoc in opposing backfields.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, will be playing its fourth consecutive prime-time game against a ranked opponent on Saturday night. That creates questions about potential fatigue, and with last week’s loss to Louisville knocking the Irish out of the playoff race, it’s fair to question their motivation.
I get those concerns, but I like the Irish in this spot as they head home for a game that now somewhat serves as their Super Bowl with no conference championship to play for.
Sam Hartman will be getting some weapons back from injury on the outside, and Audric Estime should have his way on the ground against a soft USC defense.
One other factor that I believe favors the Irish is the potential for inclement weather in this one, which could limit some of Caleb Williams’ big-play ability down the field.
Give me Notre Dame to secure the home victory and cover the short number in the process.
Notre Dame vs. USC Over/Under
Over 60.5 | 13 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 60.5 | 1 Pick |
Over 60.5
By Cody Goggin
With all of the confidence in the world, our staff likes the over in this matchup by a vote of 13-1 — and it’s easy to see why.
USC games have hit the over in five of its six matchups this season. In the only game that didn’t go over, it still put up 56 points on its own, so it wasn’t for a lack of offense. Dating back to the start of last year, the over in USC games is 16-4 (80%).
The Trojans have one of the best — if not the best — offenses in college football, spearheaded by last year’s Heisman winner Caleb Williams. They rank ninth in Success Rate, 10th in Finishing Drives and eighth in explosiveness while sitting in the top 15 in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate.
While last week’s win wasn’t the prettiest, there's a lot to like about this offense.
The opposite can be said for the defense.
This unit has played a terrible schedule of opposing passing offenses and ranks 62nd in Success Rate and 122nd in explosiveness allowed. Against the run, USC sits 88th in Success Rate and 93rd in PPA Allowed.
Unfortunately for the Trojans, Notre Dame loves to run the ball. It's been feeding Audric Estime over the last few weeks and ranks 27th in rushing Success Rate.
The Irish are also 38th in Passing Success Rate and 13th in Passing PPA, so while they've struggled over the last few games, this offense still has the ability to put plenty of points on the board — especially against a defense like the Trojans'.
The Notre Dame defense stacks up favorably compared to USC's, coming in at ninth in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 15th in Success Rate Allowed overall. However, it sits just 78th in Havoc and 96th in passing explosiveness allowed.
If Williams can hit the big play, he may be able to find the hole in this defense.
These two offenses will put plenty of points on the board behind two of the better quarterbacks in college football. As a staff, we're looking toward the over in this game on Saturday night by a comfortable margin.
More Ways to Bet Notre Dame vs. USC
By Alex Hinton
Sam Hartman is a highly decorated quarterback who owns several passing records in the ACC and at Wake Forest.
Since transferring to Notre Dame, Hartman has continued to play at a high level with 16 touchdowns, three interceptions and a completion percentage of 64.5%.
It's not often that Hartman isn't the best quarterback on the field. However, that will be the case on Saturday night when Notre Dame welcomes Caleb Williams and his USC Trojans to South Bend.
Notre Dame’s best chance of winning this game is by controlling time of possession and keeping Williams off the field. One way to do that is to give running back Audric Estime a heavy dose of touches.
The junior ranks third in FBS with 692 rushing yards and 11th with seven rushing touchdowns. He's hit this line in four games this season, going over 100 yards rushing in three of them. Though he has gone under in the past three games, he still registered 70 rushing yards against Ohio State and 81 against Duke.
This week, Estime gets one of his best matchups of the season against a USC defense that ranks 88th in Rushing Success Rate. The Trojans may get the ball back to Williams quickly, but only after they've given up a long touchdown, as they come in at 104th in rushing explosiveness defensively.
Estime has a run of at least 30 yards in five of the seven games he's played this season, including an 80-yard touchdown against NC State. The 227-pound bruiser, is a bad matchup for a USC defense that has struggled to tackle this season. A few broken tackles could increase his chances of breaking a long run.
Additionally, Saturday night’s forecast calls for 10-20 MPH winds and a chance of rain. Those are not ideal conditions for throwing the football. With that in mind, offensive coordinator Gerad Parker may dial up a few more runs for Estime.
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