All good things must come to an end.
After 23 consecutive college football weekends without the Saturday spots piece having a losing record, they went 4-6 last week. I got some great closing line value, but that's pretty meaningless on one single day.
And despite a couple of drives in the final minutes that came up short for covers, it felt like an extremely fair overall record — even if I'm still mad at Middle Tennessee for missing a 30-yard field goal after multiple false starts in the fourth quarter.
Regardless, as always, last week was last week, so there's no sense in dwelling. We're on to Week 11 of the college football season.
For reference, last year's spots finished a ridiculously unsustainable 45-20-1 (69.2%). I don't think I'll ever repeat that level of success in a season, but hopefully we can avoid the regression monster and have another profitable season.
Although, rough weeks in this gig are inevitable. I won't avoid a 2-8 stinker Saturday in perpetuity, so please wager responsibly. If you can't afford a horrible day of results, you're betting too much.
Plus, my primary goal is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.
Looking ahead to this Saturday, I have highlighted my nine favorite Week 11 spots, starting with a whopping four noon kicks.
For what it's worth, Arkansas just missed the cut, as I'm extremely worried about the injuries the Hogs suffered at wide receiver and tight end last week.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, which I bet and logged on the Action App. For your convenience, I included what number I'd play each to in case the market has moved a bit or you read this later in the week.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 41-35-0 +1.51 units (53.9%)
- Overall: 86-55-1 +24.33 units (61.0%)
ESPN Bet is just days away! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN Bet promo code as ESPN Bet launches November 14.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Penn State +5.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Kentucky +10.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Texas Tech +3.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Virginia Tech +1 |
  | 2 p.m. | Arizona -9.5 |
  | 2 p.m. | Wake Forest +2.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | UCF +3.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Purdue +1 |
  | 10:30 p.m. | San Jose State +1 |
Penn State +5.5 vs. Michigan
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
I've been wrong on every Penn State side this season. Some have been bad calls, while others have been brutal bad beats. Nonetheless, I'd like to congratulate all Michigan fans and bettors in advance.
I really should know better. After the Nittany Lions blow out an inferior opponent, it would be on brand for "small game James" to come up short once again against an elite team.
However, that would require some form of intelligence, which I clearly have demonstrated countless times over the years I simply don't have. So, I'm reluctantly backing the home team I project as a three-point underdog.
From a matchup perspective, I still have questions about this Michigan offensive line in the run-blocking department, which is where it dominated a Penn State defensive line that since bulked up significantly in the offseason.
The Wolverines haven't really needed to be great on the ground against a clown car schedule with JJ McCarthy playing at an extremely high level, but this is a significant step up in class against one of the better passing defenses in the country (No. 1 in EPA) with a ferocious pass rush that will probably get back Amin Vanover and future first-round draft pick Chop Robinson back from injury.
Michigan also doesn't have a Marvin Harrison Jr. to simply throw it up to. Nobody does.
On the other side of the ball, I've been underwhelmed by the Penn State offense for the majority of the season.
For some unknown reason, the Nittany Lions simply refused to throw the ball downfield through the first half of the year, which is why I avoided backing them at Ohio State. I had the belief that you can't just magically turn that facet of an offense on in a hostile environment against a great defense. That ended up being the case in Columbus.
Well, Penn State has seemingly learned its lesson over the past two weeks and started throwing the ball downfield. After Drew Allar had his biggest ADOT (10.8) of the season against Maryland, he absolutely shredded Maryland in College Park.
It was nice to see the passing game wake up with transfer Dante Cephas (who I was high on coming into the season) finally making an appearance last week with six catches and two touchdowns after not logging more than two receptions in any game this season. That's a potentially enormous boost for the PSU aerial attack.
Admittedly, it's hard to pinpoint just how great this Michigan team is after playing nine nobodies to start the season, but I'm confident this will provide a shock to the system right off the bat in a hostile environment against a team on its plane — similar to what we saw with Penn State in the Shoe earlier this year.
Michigan also has plenty going on off the field, which could serve as a distraction, and who knows how this sign-stealing stuff impacts anything? While I don't put much stock into either, it only adds potential positive variance for the underdog here.
I'm waiting to see where this market goes in a dead range before firing but will play PSU down to +4.
Take my money once again. We Are.
Pick: Penn State +5.5 (Play to +4)
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, James Franklin is the third-most profitable head coach in our Action Labs database among 588 coaches at 85-59-5 (59%), covering by over a field goal per game.
However, he's just 5-10 against the number vs. top-five teams.
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Kentucky +10.5 vs. Alabama
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
This is a tricky spot for Alabama, which could come out a bit flat for a noon kick in Lexington after back-to-back enormous wins to avenge losses from last season.
Conversely, this is Kentucky's Super Bowl in a rare home game against the Tide.
Yes, Alabama's offense finally looked the part for the entire game last week, but that came against a horrendous — and severely shorthanded — LSU defense that has been shredded by any offense with a pulse all season.
Don't forget this Alabama offense has gone through long droughts all season due to problems along the offensive line and Milroe's lack of accuracy in the intermediary part of the field.
It's why the Tide only beat Arkansas by three at home and arguably should've lost at Texas A&M if Jimbo Fisher had a brain. Even against Tennessee, we saw the offense explode in the second half, but the first half was ugly, speaking to those bouts of inconsistency.
Milroe's deep ball and legs remain elite, but the zone-heavy Kentucky defense is constructed to take both of those elements away from opposing offenses.
The Cats have already faced five mobile quarterbacks this season who have a combined 40 rushes for 186 yards after removing sacks.
Meanwhile, the UK defense also ranks 11th in overall explosiveness allowed and eighth on passing downs, which is critical against Milroe.
You have to beat this Kentucky defense with efficient passing in the short to intermediate parts of the field, which Milroe still struggles to do. You can also almost count on one key interception when he misreads the zone.
The Kentucky offense won't have an easy time against an elite Alabama defense, but quarterback Devin Leary is now fully healthy after dealing with some mechanical issues that stemmed from last year's pectoral injury.
That and major drop issues really held this UK offense back early in the season when it had to completely rely on running back Ray Davis to make plays against stacked boxes.
Not only is this a potential flat spot for Alabama in a true road environment where it has struggled in recent seasons, but I also show value in the number that I make around 7.5.
Schematically, this is a good matchup for the Kentucky defense in what I think sets up as a low-scoring slugfest, which would make the double-digit dog even more valuable.
I expect Alabama's offense to stumble for long stretches due to misfires by Milroe, a few sacks and a turnover or two. While the Tide should ultimately find enough explosive plays to get this done, Kentucky has the means to keep this within 10.
Pick: Kentucky +10.5 (Play to +10)
Notable Nugget
Over the past three seasons, Alabama has gone just 4-8 ATS (33.3%) in true road games, failing to cover by over seven points per game.
In all other home and neutral games against FBS competition over that span, the Tide have gone 16-7 ATS (69.6%).
As a favorite of more than a touchdown, Alabama has gone 13-5 ATS (72.2%) in home and neutral contests compared to just 3-8 ATS (27.3%) in hostile environments.
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Texas Tech +3.5 at Kansas
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
I have a ton of respect for this Kansas coaching staff, which is one of the best in college football.
However, after back-to-back upset wins, I believe we've reached a bit of inflation in the market with the Jayhawks, who I don't think should be favored by more than a field goal, as the defense still has major question marks across the board.
However, while I believe the market has reached semi-inflation on Kansas, this is more of a buy on an undervalued Texas Tech team that's hitting its stride after some brutal luck over the first nine games of 2023.
Let's take a closer look at its season to date.
The Red Raiders started out 3-3 with a trio of one-possession losses and blowout wins.
They easily could have started out 6-0 if not for some tough end-game luck against Oregon, a double-overtime loss at Wyoming and quarterback injuries at West Virginia (and a 2-0 turnover disadvantage).
Sitting at 3-3, Tech then lost at Kansas State after having to turn to third-string quarterback Jake Strong in a game it outgained the Wildcats, 480-435, but couldn't overcome going to Strong or a 3-0 turnover deficit.
Strong then got the start at BYU in another loss where the Red Raiders dominated the box score (389-277 in total yards) but were done in by a -5 turnover margin (5-0) with their third-string signal-caller throwing three picks.
I could go on and on, but this Texas Tech team could easily be 6-2 or even 7-1 with better turnover luck and quarterback health.
With Behren Morton returning last week and looking fully healthy in a win over TCU, I'm fully confident this Red Raider offense can pick apart the Kansas defense here.
Meanwhile, the Texas Tech run defense has been dominant all season, ranking top-10 in EPA, which is critical against a dynamic Kansas offense built on the foundation of getting the ground game going.
This is also an important game for the 4-4 Red Raiders, who probably need to win this one for bowl eligibility purposes.
Wreck 'Em!
Pick: Texas Tech +3.5
Notable Nugget
Following an outright upset victory as an underdog, short home favorites of less than four points have gone just 73-105-2 (41%) ATS, excluding any teams that had a bye in between.
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Virginia Tech +1 at Boston College
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
I'm buying low on the Hokies after last week's 34-3 beatdown at Louisville.
Prior to that loss, Virginia Tech had been trending up with Kyron Drones at quarterback, starting 3-1 in ACC play with the only loss coming at Florida State. In those three league victories against teams in their same weight class, the Hokies scored 38, 30 and 38, winning each by 17 points or more.
While the 4-5 Hokies should have full motivation after getting embarrassed with bowl hopes still alive, Boston College clinched a bowl berth last week.
The Eagles have now won five straight overall, but those wins came against the corpse of Syracuse, Army, Virginia, UConn and a wildly unpredictable Georgia Tech. It's worth noting those first four wins over bad teams all came by one possession, as did an earlier season win over Holy Cross.
The Eagles could easily be sitting at 3-6 on the season if not for a mountain of positive end-game variance.
On potential game-winning or game-tying drives in the final minutes, Holy Cross and Syracuse gave the ball away, while Virginia turned it over on downs. BC also scored in the final 30 seconds to take down Army.
Quarterback Thomas Castellanos has provided a spark to the Eagles offense with his legs. However, this is still an extremely limited offense, especially through the air.
Boston College will try to grind this game away with a ground-and-pound style, which might have some success against Virginia Tech for stretches. But it's hard to rely on that style all the way up and down the field with a beat-up running back group since BC likely won't get anything through the air against an excellent Hokies secondary that ranks in the top 20 in both Success Rate and EPA per Play.
Meanwhile, Drones can make enough plays with his legs here and hit a few explosives against a much worse BC secondary to get this done in a good spot on paper.
Pick: Virginia Tech +1 (Play to -1.5)
Notable Nugget
Virginia Tech lost, 31-3, at Louisville last week as 10-point underdogs.
Conference road teams that failed to cover in their previous game by at least 21 points while scoring three or fewer have gone 70-46-3 (60.3%) the following week, covering by 3.8 points per game on average. That speaks directly to the buy-low nature of those teams.
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Arizona -9.5 at Colorado
2 p.m. ET ⋅ Pac-12 Network
If it's not broken, don't fix it. Yes, I'm going back to the well for more of the wagon Arizona — which continues to be an absolute ATM for bettors.
I continue to be perplexed on a weekly basis why the market doesn't have more respect for the Wildcats, who lost two games in overtime on the road to Power 5 opponents they should've beaten. Plus, their only other loss came by a touchdown against a healthy Washington squad that remains undefeated.
Freshman quarterback Noah Fifita has continued his torrid play under center since taking over for Jayden de Laura.
Fifita has similar talent to his predecessor but just makes sounder decisions, as de Laura would put the ball in harm's way too often. Look no further than the game in Starkville that Arizona lost in overtime after turning the ball over five times — four of which were interceptions.
Fifita, who has made five starts all against top-20 teams, has thrown for over 1,500 yards with 14 touchdowns to just four interceptions. As a result, he now ranks 11th nationally in total QBR.
In fairness, this extremely well-schemed offense simply needs a sound decision-maker who can make all of the throws considering the skill-position talent and an offensive line that excels in pass protection.
Fifita, who has won the Pac-12 Freshman of the Week Award four times in five starts, fits the bill perfectly.
There's just no reason why this rolling Arizona offense that I have now ranked as a top-10 unit shouldn't shred this horrendous Colorado defense that ranks outside the top 110 nationally in both Rush and Pass Success Rate.
For what it's worth, Arizona's offense ranks in the top 10 in both categories. It's a massive mismatch.
While many have started to take notice of what head coach Jedd Fisch has done with the offense, not enough have realized how much this defense has improved year over year. That and limiting turnovers have been the biggest difference for a Wildcats squad that featured an excellent offense in 2022.
They just simply couldn't get any stops. Well, that's changed with a group that's flying around with an abundance of confidence behind a defensive line that now has bulk up front.
One might say I'm buying Arizona at a high point after three straight wins over ranked opponents. That's a fair point, but I believe the market is just too slow to adjust to certain teams (good or bad), and this is one of those cases.
Plus, this is also a fade of Colorado.
Not only do the Buffaloes have one of the worst Power 5 defenses, but head coach Deion Sanders inexplicably took play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Sean Lewis and handed them to Pat Shurmur. I have no idea why Deion would make such a decision outside of potential panic and/or wanting to protect Shadeur more in front of an abysmal offensive line.
The passing offense and pace was the only bright spot on the entire team. Now with Shurmur, you're going to get a more conservative approach with more wide receiver screens and a higher frequency of runs, which will likely prove disastrous for one of the worst rushing offenses in the country.
In Shurmur's first game calling plays last week against Oregon State, Colorado amassed 83 total yards at an average clip of under two yards per play. Colorado did sneak in the back door for a second straight week to secure the cover, but it was an ugly effort all around.
As long as Arizona shows up — and I'm assuming it will against a team everybody wants a piece of — the Wildcats should march up and down the field with ease while getting plenty of stops against this new inefficient Colorado offense.
Plus, the Wildcats will enjoy a significant coaching and special teams edge.
Bear Down!
Pick: Arizona -9.5 (Play to -11)
Notable Nugget
Arizona is an FBS-best 8-1 ATS on the season, including 6-0 as an underdog with an absurd average cover margin of over 17 points per game.
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Wake Forest +2.5 vs. NC State
2 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
This is a great situational spot for the Demon Deacons, who really need a victory to keep their bowl hopes alive with a likely loss on the road at Notre Dame looming.
Conversely, NC State clinched its bowl berth last week with a second straight massive win over Miami after taking out Clemson a week prior. However, if you dig a bit deeper, both were extremely flukey.
The Tigers had a 364-202 yardage edge but came up short due to a 2-0 turnover deficit, including a critical pick-six. They also turned it over on downs on the potential game-tying drive late in the fourth quarter.
Similarly, Miami outgained NC State, 292-231, but couldn't overcome four turnovers with a clearly injured quarterback and a turnover on downs at the goal line to take the lead in the fourth quarter.
Everything broke NC State's way over those two games.
From a matchup perspective, Wake Forest has excelled at defending the run, ranking in the top 25 nationally in EPA per Rush Allowed. That spells trouble for an anemic NC State passing offense that will have to transition back to Brennan Armstrong at quarterback after MJ Morris suddenly decided to redshirt.
Based on their perspective performances this season, I have that as about a 1.5-point downgrade. Earlier this season, the NC State offense, which ranks bottom-five nationally in EPA on early downs, looked absolutely lost with Armstrong at the helm.
On the other side of the ball, Wake Forest won't get much on the ground, but Mitch Griffis at least found a bit of a rhythm through the air against Duke.
The pressure that NC State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson will inevitably bring from all over should cause issues for this Wake Forest offensive line, but the Demon Deacons can grind this out in a low-scoring slugfest in a great situational spot.
Lastly, it doesn't hurt to have one additional day of prep and rest after playing last Friday night. Head coach Dave Clawson should have his team ready.
I'm waiting to see if +3 pops but will play Wake down to +2 or moneyline if it never shows.
Pick: Wake Forest +2.5 (Play to +2)
Notable Nugget
Dave Clawson is 51-38-1 (57.3%) as an underdog. That includes a sparkling 30-18 ATS (62.5%) mark following a loss, making him the fourth-most profitable coach among over 500 in that role since 2005, per Action Labs.
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UCF +3.5 vs. Oklahoma State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
The Pokes have completely turned around their season following the bye week.
The same team that got blown out in Stillwater by South Alabama has now won and covered five straight to shockingly control its own destiny for a Big 12 Championship.
It all changed when head coach Mike Gundy stuck with one quarterback in Alan Bowman and started feeding dynamic running back Ollie Gordon II.
The Pokes also altered their run-blocking scheme, aided by getting healthier along the offensive line. Gordon's success has also led to success in the passing game with play action despite an underwhelming group of wide receivers.
With all of that said, I feel comfortable enough fading the Cowboys at what I believe is likely their high point in the market. There's also enormous letdown risk after as emotional of a win as you'll see against Oklahoma in the final edition of Bedlam.
I also still have many questions about the Oklahoma State defense, which has holes outside of a very good linebacker duo.
The Pokes have simply been getting every single break of late. During this current five-game winning streak, their opponents have gone 1-for-12 on fourth-down conversion attempts with a -8 turnover margin (13-5 turnover edge).
They've also benefited from a couple of defensive scores, numerous short fields and even a highly questionable third-down pass interference call down three in the fourth quarter while pinned deep in their own territory against Oklahoma.
Regression certainly looms.
While this may represent the peak of the market on the Cowboys, the Knights may still be a bit undervalued after having to make do without starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee for a stretch in which they went 1-4, including an epic meltdown in a one-point loss against Baylor.
Plumlee returned after the bye in Norman in a two-point loss to Oklahoma and now looks all the way back to full health. His legs should make all the difference here.
While I'm a bit concerned about the penetrable UCF run defense against Gordon, the spot is too good to pass up at this price with the Knights as a home dog in the bounce house.
Pick: UCF +3.5 (Play to +2)
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, UCF has gone 31-21 (59.6%) as a home underdog or single-digit favorite.
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Purdue +1 vs. Minnesota
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
This is a tough sandwich spot for the Gophers, who suffered a monumental meltdown against Illinois in a one-point loss that really puts them behind the eight ball in the Big Ten West race.
PJ Fleck will now have to rally his troops back on the boat to take on 2-7 Purdue just one week before facing Ohio State. Not an easy task by any means.
Plus, this Minnesota offense remains a complete mess. Purdue will certainly benefit from the fact that Minnesota doesn't have a super mobile quarterback since the slow-footed back end of the Boilermaker defense has had issues slowing those down this season.
Minnesota signal-caller Athan Kaliakmanis, who averages fewer than 150 passing yards per game, also really struggles with accuracy, as evidenced by his extremely low 55% completion percentage.
His production also declines precipitously under pressure, which the Boilermakers certainly can generate with their plus defensive front.
Ultimately, the Purdue defense has a very favorable matchup against one of the nation's most rush-heavy offenses that has a beat-up running back room. The Boilermakers really struggle in coverage but have done an adequate job all season against opposing ground games.
It's been a messy first season in West Lafayette for first-time head coach Ryan Walters, who has dealt with several key injuries, specifically at cornerback and across the entire offensive line. In fact, things got so bad last week that center Gus Hartwig had to kick out to tackle late in the game.
Fortunately for Purdue, Minnesota doesn't generate a ton of pressure and has an exploitable cornerback group that quarterback Hudson Card can pick apart, especially if Boilermakers wide receiver Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen can return from an injury that has sidelined him since early October.
He had a chance to go last weekend, so I'm optimistic he has a decent shot to suit up, which would provide a huge boost to an offense that needs his playmaking ability on the outside, especially after the catch.
Lastly, it's worth mentioning that Purdue hasn't been nearly as bad as its record indicates. The Boilermakers have been unlucky in a number of high-variance metrics, and hopefully, Walters has learned to stop trying to attempt field goals with a disastrous kicking situation.
They've also played one of the five most difficult schedules in the country, having faced both Michigan and Ohio State from the East without facing any of the Big Ten bottom-feeders. In fact, Purdue has only one game on its schedule against a non-Power 5 team, which came in its season opener against now 8-1 Fresno State.
I'm selling this anemic Minnesota offense and vulnerable secondary on the road in a very tough spot where the Gophers may come out extremely flat against a hard-luck Purdue team at the bottom of its market value.
One might question Purdue's motivation with no bowl eligibility on the horizon, but I believe it will show up on Saturday. With games against Northwestern and Indiana to close out the season and no postseason hopes, playing spoiler to end Minnesota's Big Ten title hopes should offer enough motivation.
Hopefully Walters can get the better of Fleck for a third straight year after shutting down the Minnesota offense as Illinois' defensive coordinator in each of the past two seasons.
Boiler Up!
Pick: Purdue +1 (Play to -1)
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Purdue has been the least profitable home team in college football. Against FBS foes, the Boilermakers have gone just 42-70-1 ATS (37.5%) over that span, failing to cover by just under four points per game on average.
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San Jose State +1 vs. Fresno State
10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
This is a great spot to back the Spartans, who come off a bye week after turning their season around with three straight dominant wins to shake off a 1-5 start.
Now, bowl eligibility is on the horizon for a team that looked like it would have a lost season over a month ago.
I'm also itching to fade a Fresno State squad that I believe is severely overrated in the market. Yes, the Bulldogs did cover last week against Boise State to improve to 8-1 on the season, but they benefited from a kick return touchdown on the final play of the first half and a late broken run in garbage time.
I just haven't been overly impressed with an overall body of work that includes five one-possession wins over Boise State, Eastern Washington, Purdue, Utah State and UNLV. That's not exactly a murderer's row.
If you're wondering who else they beat, it's even uglier: Kent State, Nevada and an Arizona State team decimated by injuries that used three quarterbacks and turned it over eight times.
I have Fresno's strength of schedule ranked outside the top 100 nationally.
Meanwhile, San Jose State has had a much more difficult nine-game stretch to start its 2023 campaign, which began with games against two ranked Pac-12 teams in USC and Oregon State.
After an easy win over FCS Cal Poly, the Spartans suffered very respectable one-possession losses at both Toledo and Boise State, sandwiched around a blowout defeat at the hands of Air Force.
I personally wasn't surprised SJSU got blown out against the Air Force triple option offense since the Spartans have one of the worst statistical rush defenses in FBS after losing a pair of the best defensive linemen in program history this past offseason in Viliami Fehoko and Cade Hall.
Well, fortunately for them, Fresno State doesn't have an overly efficient rushing attack in its pass-heavy scheme, partly due to an offensive line that struggles to run block and ranks outside the top 100 nationally in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Neither team should get much on the ground in this matchup, but San Jose State has a much better chance of breaking a few long runs with Kairee Robinson.
At the end of the day, I'll trust quarterback Chevan Cordeiro and the improving San Jose State passing attack over Mikey Keene and company.
After losing a number of key players on defense and its top two receivers from a season, it shouldn't shock anybody that San Jose State has started to improve as the season has progressed after early-season struggles.
The bye week should help even more in that regard.
Ultimately, I'm selling high on the Bulldogs and rolling with the home Spartans in a great spot with a favorable matchup.
Pick: San Jose State +1 (Play to -1)
Notable Nugget
San Jose State head coach Brent Brennan has gone 19-11-1 ATS (63.3%) as an underdog in conference play.
