Week 8 College Football Odds, Picks: Collin Wilson’s Saturday Bets for Tennessee vs Alabama, Utah vs USC

The 2023 college football season rolls on with another stellar slate here in Week 8.

The highlight of Saturday's schedule is clearly the top-10 Big Ten battle between No. 7 Penn State and No. 3 Ohio State. After one of the best games of the season last week in Oregon vs. Washington, the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes will look to live up to the hype in a game that features massive Big Ten and College Football Playoff implications.

Those big postseason implications are also a factor in a 3:30 p.m. ET game between No. 17 Tennessee and No. 11 Alabama. The Tide suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Vols in Neyland Stadium last year and are looking for revenge with their offense starting to click.

At 7 p.m. ET, we'll get a glimpse of someone who could be a future college football star. Kansas State freshman Avery Johnson ran for 90 yards and five touchdowns in a beatdown of Texas Tech in Lubbock last week, and now he'll be tasked with downing the national runner-up in TCU.

To close it all out, we have a rematch of the 2022 Pac-12 Championship between the No. 14 Utah Utes and the No. 18 USC Trojans.

There's plenty of action to dive into around the college football world, so let's break down all four of those games in my Week 8 Action Network betting card.

Collin Wilson's Week 8 NCAAF Betting Card

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

According to past records, the Ohio State-Penn State rivalry has a pulse with the current head coaches.

Ryan Day has led Ohio State to a 35-0 record against teams in the Big Ten not named Michigan. James Franklin is 4-14 as the Penn State coach against Ohio State and Michigan.

From those two records, one could deduce that this game leans towards the Buckeyes, but everything points to this duel going down to the wire in 2023.

The Buckeyes made an example out of a progressing Purdue team in Week 7, but Ohio State struggled to look the part of a national title contender through the first five games. It scored less than 24 points against Indiana and Notre Dame and led Maryland by less than a touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Penn State has experienced a relatively smooth 2023, as no game has been within 17 points. A soft strength of schedule can be associated with that, though, as the Nittany Lions have faced Iowa, Northwestern and Illinois in Big Ten play.

The biggest question for this game is how much Franklin has left off film in preparation for OSU.

These are two of the most talented teams in the country, as the winner will have the inside track to the Big Ten title and the College Football Playoff.

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There are plenty of similarities between this version of Penn State and the team that won the Rose Bowl last season. Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz runs a strict 4-3 defense consisting of a 39% blitz rate with a heavy tendency towards Cover 1.

Considering the impotency of the offenses on their schedule thus far, the Nittany Lions have been elite through the first half of the season. This is the best defense nationally in Quality Drives and against the pass, ranking best overall in Success Rate and explosives.

Cornerbacks Kalen King, Johnny Dixon and Cam Miller have led a secondary that ranks best overall nationally in on-target ball allowed, defined as quarterback passes that keep the target in stride.

The biggest question on the offensive side is the lack of explosives. Coordinator Mike Yurcich has seen very few long plays from scrimmage on both rushing and passing attempts.

Both Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen lead a running back stable that has produced just four gains over 20 yards. Both running backs average less than three yards after contact, a large drop from the 2022 numbers when Singleton averaged 4.6 yards after contact.

The great news is the top rank in Stuff Rate, giving confidence to a Penn State side that could run the ball for first downs and end the game in the fourth quarter.

The biggest mystery in this game is the passing depth of quarterback Drew Allar.

There has been no risk in his pass arsenal thus far, as he's thrown for 12 touchdowns with just three of them earning Big-Time Throw status. Allar has an average depth of target of 6.6 yards, one of the lowest of any starting quarterback in the nation.

Allar had 60 passes in mop-up duty last season, attempting a pass over 20 yards on seven occasions. Fast forward to this season, and Allar has attempted just 11 passes over 20 yards on 195 dropbacks.

There are plenty of unknowns that must be answered when it comes to Allar's pass explosive capabilities. Is this is by design from Yurcich, or is it a limitation for the sophomore quarterback?

While Day knows the Buckeyes' season will be judged on a performance against "that team up north," beating Penn State is essential for a trip to the College Football Playoff.

The Buckeyes have turned on the jets when needed this season, surviving a late surge from Notre Dame and boatracing the remaining schedule.

If there was a glaring weakness in Ohio State's toughest game, the Irish had their most success on Passing Downs, averaging nearly double the national average in Success Rate while gaining 11.6 yards per play.

The OSU defense has been electric in all counting stats, but a rank of 75th in Passing Downs Success Rate is an opportunity for opponents.

Coordinator Jim Knowles runs a 4-2-5 scheme exclusively, opting for blitzes on second-and-long situations. Both edge JT Tuimoloau and interior Michael Hall Jr. have created 25 quarterback hurries, which has resulted in a top-10 rank in pass rush.

Cornerback Denzel Burke has forced six incompletions this season, and he's a large contributor to Ohio State's rank of 13th in on-target rate allowed. Burke is on the list of players questionable due to injury, and the junior is vital to the Buckeyes' secondary.

Knowles has pivoted between Cover 1 and Cover 3 this season, as Ohio State ranks fifth in PFF coverage grading.

The biggest question for Ohio State is its lack of a rushing attack and the injuries associated with the backfield. TreVeyon Henderson, Miyan Williams and Chip Trayanum are all "hopeful" for playing time against Penn State.

Williams hasn't lived up to seasons past, but both Trayanum and Henderson average more than 3.2 yards after contact.

Henderson has five explosive rushing attempts on the season, but the Buckeyes' rank of 50th in Rushing Success Rate shows a unit that's struggling to gain the necessary yardage.

The responsibility to score may come down to the arm of Kyle McCord, who brings an 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio into the game. While those numbers show stability, he's made 10 Big-Time Throws and seven Turnover-Worthy Plays.

McCord hasn't played a single game without recording a Big-Time Throw, as most of his troubles have come when opponents send the blitz. McCord is just 15-of-42 passing in pressure pockets, signaling that Diaz will have blitz packages ready for the Ohio State offensive line.

McCord has been excellent in Success Rate and explosives against Cover 3 but has struggled to surpass the national average against Cover 1 and quarters.

From 2016-18, this was a series that had razor-thin margins — a combined five points separated the three games. The series has been all Buckeyes since 2019, with an average deciding point differential of 11.5.

Penn State may have its most talented team on both sides of the ball since the close margins of five years ago, but there are gaps in the analytics where Ohio State has an advantage.

The Buckeyes are 17th in Special Teams SP+ in comparison to the Nittany Lions' rank of 101st. Efficient Kickoff Return is one of the primary areas of advantage for Ohio State, as its overall special teams efficiency ranks 11th compared to Penn State's rank 41st.

If field position is a concern for Penn State, the lack of explosives will make it even tougher for the Nittany Lions to get scoring opportunities. Yurcich oversees an offense that has expected points rankings of 122nd on the ground and 131st in the air.

Former quarterback Sean Clifford had 46 attempts beyond 20 yards, which begs the question: Is Allar being held back, or is he not efficient throwing downfield?

Penn State is not expected to replicate Notre Dame's success in passing downs, as it brings a mid-FBS Success Rate in passing downs through a soft strength of schedule (112th).

This is generally a slow starting game, as the first quarter has exceeded 10 points just once since the 2017 season. Both Penn State and Ohio State's lowest scoring differential by quarter this season has been in the first frame as both offenses run scripted plays.

There's an expectation that Ohio State will try to establish the run with any healthy running back, while Penn State continues to work the short field. That makes the first-half under worth the wager.

With Emeka Egbuka potentially on the shelf for Ohio State, the Nittany Lions will attempt to defend Marvin Harrison Jr.

Penn State couldn't keep track of the future NFL first-round pick in a game that turned into a fourth-quarter shootout. No single Penn State defender had success defending Harrison, who tallied 185 yards with a catch on 10-of-12 targets.

For Harrison to torment the Penn State secondary, McCord must play his best game of the season.

Diaz is sure to dial up pressure on the Ohio State quarterback, as he's calling blitzes at an aggressive 56% rate this season with a high success in creating negative plays.

McCord is not the only quarterback scheduled to struggle, as Allar will be tested to throw explosives in third-and-long situations.

Only KeAndre Lambert-Smith has flashed elusiveness, generating the only yards-per-route-run mark above two of all Penn State targets.

The inability of Penn State to throw explosives limits the route tree to slants, crossers and short play-action passing. The Nittany Lions must have methodical, long drives to get into scoring position.

Action Network projects Ohio State as a favorite by a field goal, as this game should follow a long script featuring first-half jabs before the haymakers come in the fourth quarter.

This series should return to the 2016-18 nail-biter matchups, which gives the points on Penn State value.

Look for a low-scoring first half, with the first team to execute explosives being the outright winner.

Before Alabama enters a bye week to prepare for LSU, a revenge spot comes against Tennessee after the Tide suffered a 52-49 loss in Knoxville a year ago.

Reeling from a Week 2 defeat at the hands of Texas and a hideous offensive performance against South Florida, the Crimson Tide have been nothing but business in four subsequent SEC victories.

Tennessee enters Bryant-Denny Stadium after a one-possession victory over Texas A&M. Special teams provided the boost needed to get past the Aggies, as the Volunteers have a different brand of football this season. While 2022 was full of defensive inefficiency and offense explosives, this version of the Volunteers have been dominant in the trench.

If Tennessee wants to stay in the hunt for Atlanta, all games are a must-win leading to a date with Georgia in mid-November.

Could the Week 8 game in Tuscaloosa be a preview of the SEC Championship game? Let's dive into the Tennessee vs. Alabama odds and make a pick and prediction in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 21.

Joe Milton entered the season with high hopes, as plenty of casual college football consumers predicted his arm strength would be enough to make him a top pick in next year's NFL Draft.

The numbers have been anything but NFL-worthy from the sixth-year senior. Milton has an even ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays while posting his lowest average depth of target since the 2019 season.

The efficiency falls off a cliff when passing over 20 yards, as Milton has completed 8-of-35 passes with an adjusted completion percentage of 36%.

The result has been a dramatic decrease in explosive passes from Tennessee this season, as none of Milton's main targets — Squirrel White, Ramel Keyton and Bru McCoy— average more than two yards per route run.

Running back Jaylen Wright has picked up the slack in rushing attempts, creating 23 missed tackles and 13 explosive runs. The third-year running back has eclipsed 100 yards in four of his six games.

While the offense has been supported by the run game, Tennessee's defensive line jumped out on film for Nick Saban.

Defensive coordinator Tim Banks is coaching his best squad yet in his third season at Tennessee. The Volunteers are top-15 in most defensive statistics, including Havoc, coverage and Success Rate.

Edge James Pearce Jr. is ranked as the top edge player in PFF's pass rush productivity rankings, racking up 32 pressures and 18 quarterback hurries.

Although the strength of opposing offenses leaves something to be desired, Tennessee ranks top-20 in defending explosives and fourth in hard stops — a metric that constitutes a complete failure by the offense.

At the conclusion of Week 3, the outlook for Alabama football was bleak. A loss to Texas and a slogging effort in a downpour against South Florida brought out the doubters.

Now, the Crimson Tide are 4-0 in SEC play and are a victory over LSU away from all but guaranteeing a trip to the SEC Championship game.

Quarterback Jalen Milroe has roared in the passing game since being benched in Week 3, throwing six touchdowns to just two interceptions in SEC play. Alabama has completely rebounded in the explosive passing department, sitting just one 40-yard completion shy of leading the nation.

Despite the uptick in explosives, Alabama still has issues in the offensive trench. The Crimson Tide's offensive line ranks 127th in pressures allowed, as 38% of all Alabama passing attempts have seen pressure from the opponent.

The Tide have one of the lowest Havoc Allowed ranks in college football, with the biggest problem being the 50 tackles for loss allowed. Asked if Tennessee's sack rate is a concern for the Alabama offense, Saban promptly responded, "Hell yeah."

The defense has been the saving grace for the Tide throughout the season with a top coverage grade from PFF. No team has been able to establish methodical drives against a Crimson Tide defense that ranks top-20 in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate.

Terrion Arnold and Malachi Moore have been two of the most active safeties in the SEC, both playing everywhere on the field from slot to to nickel to corner. The Tide have been phenomenal in all types of coverage, including Cover 1, Cover 3 and quarters.

Tennessee is not expected to have success on the offensive side of the football in this game.

Milton's downfield passing has been a letdown this season in terms of accuracy, and now he faces a Crimson Tide defense that excels in limiting explosives and shutting down the pass. Milton has struggled to create explosives with a mid-FBS Success Rate against Cover 3 and quarters — two packages Alabama is expected to show.

Tennessee will be able to get a push on the offensive line, as Alabama ranks 108th in Defensive Stuff Rate.

If Bama can limit explosive plays, there may not be many opportunities for methodical drives for Tennessee, as the Vols rank 76th in Quality Drives and 84th in Finishing Drives.

The bigger question comes on the other side of the ball, where Saban is aware of the Tennessee pass rush that's coming for an Alabama offensive line that struggles to protect the quarterback.

The Volunteers have not faced a quarterback with Milroe's ability, as Texas A&M, South Carolina and Florida lack a dual-threat signal-caller. Frank Harris was injured for UTSA in a game against Tennessee, which would have given a small glimpse of how a mobile quarterback could handle this pass rush.

If there's a quarterback who's comfortable getting harassed, it's Milroe. Only Payton Thorne of Auburn and Grant Wilson of Old Dominion have a better pressure-to-sack ratio than the Alabama signal-caller.

Despite the crowded pockets, Milroe has produced a 127.6 NFL grade in pressured passing attempts, which ranks second in the nation behind LSU's Jayden Daniels.

Although the Action Network projections call for Alabama to be favored by a touchdown, there are plenty of advantages for the Crimson Tide.

Tennessee will have struggles creating pass plays beyond 10 yards, ultimately putting the onus on Wright to lead the Volunteers' rushing attack.

Considering the soft schedule, the Quality Drives numbers suggest Tennessee will have issues putting points on the board if they don't get them through turnovers, special teams or quality field position.

Look for Alabama to generate explosives through busted plays, a specialty for Milroe. Whether it's via max protect or moving the pocket, Alabama will be looking for revenge through all four quarters.

The two teams that played in last year's Big 12 Championship will collide in the Little Apple on Saturday, as Kansas State hosts TCU.

Kansas State took to the road for two consecutive conference games, losing in Stillwater to Oklahoma State before securing a victory at Texas Tech. The Wildcats return home for a pair of games with a potential quarterback controversy halfway through the season.

The good news for Kansas State is a friendly schedule to end the year, leaving the state of Kansas just once with no games against conference-leading Oklahoma.

TCU has started off the season with continuous hurdles, from a large pull in the transfer portal to a bit of bad luck. The national runner-up turned over nearly its entire roster while dealing with an injury at the quarterback position.

The Horned Frogs have been unlucky in games, per postgame win expectancy, pulling one of the lowest numbers in second-order win total through seven games.

TCU's wins have been by multiple scores, while losses to Colorado and West Virginia each came by a field goal.

With Texas and Oklahoma on the schedule to close out November, two-loss TCU is in desperation mode to reach Arlington.

The Horned Frogs hit rock bottom two seasons ago with the departure of Gary Patterson, as each of the defensive metrics landed in the cellar of all Power 5 teams.

Head coach Sonny Dykes came in to rehabilitate the program, hiring two coordinators who led the same group of players to the national title game.

Defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie entered Fort Worth with a 3-3-5 scheme that did plenty of damage in the AAC at Tulsa.

The same scheme and blitz rate from 2022 has carried over with new faces this season, supported by a pair of strong linebackers. Namdi Obiazor leads the team in tackles, while middle linebacker Jamoi Hodge paces the unit in pressures.

The nickel stack defense ranks top-40 in the most important categories, from limiting explosive plays to Quality Drives and Finishing Drives. TCU continues to rank mid-FBS in creating Havoc and defending the rush, showing a strong Success Rate in Cover 1.

On the other side of the ball, new coordinator Kendal Briles brought his brand of tempo Air Raid to Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs are now one of the fastest offenses in the nation at 21.6 seconds per play.

With quarterback Chandler Morris' sprained MCL, Dykes turned to Rockwell-Heath High School product Josh Hoover against BYU.

Hoover has elevated the Horned Frogs offense, meaning Morris may lose his starting position for a second consecutive season.

Hoover racked up 439 yards and four touchdowns in his first collegiate start against the Cougars, posting his highest NFL grade on passes between the hash marks.

If there's an area of focus for the Horned Frogs, it's red-zone play-calling. Briles struggled at Arkansas in a similar matter, as the shortened field limited his play-call selection.

TCU ranks 128th in red-zone efficiency, scoring a touchdown in just 15-of-29 trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line.

All Kansas State talk centers around the quarterback position for a second consecutive season.

Incumbent Will Howard led the Wildcats to the Big 12 Championship last season, sharing snaps with super senior Adrian Martinez.

Now, Howard has a different quarterback battle, as freshman Avery Johnson burst onto the scene against Texas Tech with five rushing touchdowns.

Head coach Chris Klieman released a Week 8 depth chart with an "OR" between Howard and Johnson as starter. Howard is presumed to be the better passer, although Johnson has completed 11 of his 13 passes for 132 yards this season.

Kansas State has been fantastic at staying on schedule, ranking top-25 in Standard Downs Success Rate. Expect the offense to rotate both quarterbacks from series to series, similar to Howard and Martinez last season.

The 3-3-5 defense from defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman has been fantastic against the run, currently ranking top-10 nationally in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.

The issue for the defense is the stoppage of pass explosives, allowing eight passes beyond 40 yards this season.

The Wildcats rarely send blitz with five or more defenders, opting to play quarters coverage against opponent passing attempts.

The emergence of Johnson under center for the Wildcats is sure to be the primary factor during film study for TCU. The freshman has collected nearly all of his yards in designed rushing attempts, utilizing gap concepts with plenty of power and pulling lineman calls.

This has been an area of weakness for TCU, particularly when opposing offenses pull linemen. TCU has a low 40% Success Rate against pull-lead run concepts, lower than its current ranks in Defensive Rushing Success Rate.

Whether Howard or Johnson are leading the charge, Kansas State should stay in standard downs and ahead of the chains.

TCU is expected to counter With Hoover's arm, as K-State's rush defense is the best in the Big 12. Both Morris and Hoover have dominated Cover 3 this season, but Kansas State runs that version of coverage on just 9% of opponent passing attempts.

The Wildcats will line up in quarters coverage, an area the TCU offense has struggled against with a 43.6% Success Rate and no explosiveness.

Action Network projects Kansas State at -9, putting plenty of value on the Wildcats.

TCU would have the pass explosive advantage over Kansas State considering the overall number of expected points in passing attempts, but the Horned Frogs dominate Cover 3 and not quarters. Hoover lit up BYU for 439 yards and four touchdowns, but that came against a defense that plays nearly all coverage snaps in Cover 3.

Kansas State's commitment to quarters coverage will be an issue for the TCU offense.

Conversely, the Horned Frogs may have no answer for the Johnson-designed rush attack that's led by numerous pulling linemen.

All of these factors are enough to get an investment down on Kansas State during its push to make the conference championship game.

Five Pac-12 teams have a realistic shot at making the College Football Playoff, as Utah and USC prepare to play a knockout game at the national level.

Each team has suffered a loss this season, the Trojans in Week 7 to Notre Dame and the Utes to Oregon State in Week 5. USC got dominated in South Bend, surrendering five turnovers while allowing the Fighting Irish to generate 11 tackles for loss.

The Trojans have yet to provide an answer on the defensive side of the ball, while the numbers of reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams have dipped.

Utah dealt with injuries before taking a snap this season, as quarterback Cam Rising has yet to take the field. Tight end Brant Kuithe is also out indefinitely with a knee injury, while the running back rotation welcomed a defensive back for carries in a Week 7 victory over Cal.

Although Utah doesn't consider this a rivalry, this is the fourth time these teams have played over the span of the last two years. USC has lost the previous three meetings with the latest coming in the 202 Pac-12 Championship game.

While a USC loss wouldn't knock it out of the chase for the conference, a loss for either team will close the books on any national title hopes.

The Utah defense continues to be not only one of the best on the West Coast but in all of college football. Coordinator Morgan Scalley has the Utes ranking in the top 15 in Havoc, Success Rate, Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.

There have not been many areas to attack, as the 4-2-5 scheme is top-10 in Stuff Rate and Success Rate against the pass. Utah is the highest-ranked defense in stopping third-down conversions, allowing only 18-of-78 attempts to generate a first down.

Safeties Sione Vaki and Cole Bishop lead the team in tackles, but in the case of Vaki, a new role was on display against Cal.

Vaki lined up at halfback and rushed for 158 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears. The depth chart has been light behind primary rushers Jaylon Glover and Ja'Quinden Jackson.

Injuries have taken a toll not just on Jackson but at the quarterback position as well. Rising is listed on the depth chart against USC, although head coach Kyle Whittingham mentioned the possibility of a medical redshirt.

Nate Johnson was listed on the depth chart as the backup to Rising over Bryson Barnes, who completed 15 of his 21 passes for 128 yards against Cal. Both Barnes and Johnson have provided four turnover-worthy plays on a near-even number of passing attempts, but neither has provided a spark to the offense.

The Utah offense has experienced troubles without its star quarterback, falling bottom 20 in Success Rate, pass explosives and Finishing Drives.

For the first time in his collegiate career, Caleb Williams threw three interceptions against Notre Dame.

The numbers have been horrific for the Trojans quarterback, posting 13 turnover-worthy plays this season after recording only 11 in his Heisman campaign last season. Williams has not posted a big-time throw since a Week 4 shootout with Arizona State.

Outside of the passing mistakes that have piled up, Williams has fumbled the ball nine times this season, eclipsing a total of six last season on double the number of rushing attempts.

USC has fallen to 63rd in Havoc Allowed and owns a penalty per game rank of 125th.

Coordinator Alex Grinch has seen improvement in the defense, particularly when opposing offenses have an opportunity to score. USC has climbed to 11th in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing just 2.6 points on 43 opponent trips past the 40-yard line.

USC has not been good in holding teams back from an available yards standpoint, supporting a low Success Rate rank while falling outside the top 100 in first downs allowed.

The Trojans' nickel defense has given up plenty of explosive plays, adopting a true bend-don't-break mentality in allowing only three opponent red-zone trips per game.

The struggles for Williams in the passing game were expected against an Irish team that ran multiple coverage packages. USC has a high Success Rate and hits plenty of explosives against quarters defense, but it becomes a middle-of-the-pack team against Cover 1 and Cover 3.

The Utes' 4-2-5 defense plays an even distribution of Cover 1 and Cover 3, implementing quarters on just 6% of defensive snaps against the pass.

Williams' struggles in the passing game should carry over into Week 8 against a defense that posted two turnover-worthy plays in the Pac-12 Championship last December.

The offensive struggles are expected to continue for a Utah team making a third road trip on the season. Johnson should provide the best opportunity to move the ball, as the USC defense has been much more susceptible to explosives on the ground than through the air.

Plus, the Trojans have struggled a bit against mobile quarterbacks. San Jose State's Chevan Cordeiro ran for 72 rushing yards, while Colorado's Shedeur Sanders added 76 yards and a score. Even Arizona backup Noah Fifita scrambled for 30 against USC.

Utah did have an offensive outburst against Cal, receiving an assist from two turnovers and an average starting field position at the 38-yard line.

The Action Network projection sets the game at USC -5 with a total of 54.5.

Points will be at a premium for a USC offense that has consistently struggled against Cover 1 and Cover 3. Conversely, Utah has scrambled to find offensive points with poor ranks in scoring opportunities.

In a low-scoring game, Utah's quarterbacks should be able to do enough against a USC defense that still has holes.

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