It's another glorious Saturday.
Week 6's slate is loaded with potential matchups, and our college football writers already have bets on three Noon games, including NCAAF picks and predictions for Missouri vs. Texas A&M and Pitt vs. North Carolina.
Read below for our three favorite NCAAF best bets and expert picks for the noon slate on Saturday, Oct. 5.
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NCAAF Best Bets for Noon Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Missouri vs Texas A&M Best Bets
I think it’s time to sell high on Missouri.
The Tigers' 4-0 record isn’t overly impressive. They obliterated Buffalo and Murray State before scraping by (and not covering against) Boston College and Vanderbilt. They rank 120th nationally in strength of schedule, and Saturday will be their first road game.
Meanwhile, I think we can buy low on Texas A&M. The image of Connor Weigman struggling against Notre Dame is still on the public’s mind, but the Aggies have played better recently. Sure, they failed to cover against Bowling Green and Arkansas, but they still beat two teams that have vastly exceeded market expectations — the Falcons and Hogs are a combined 7-2 ATS record.
From a matchup perspective, Texas A&M’s 4-2-5 scheme is vulnerable to deep passing plays, ranking 111th nationally in Explosiveness allowed. But the Tigers aren’t built to exploit that, ranking 119th in Explosiveness – Brady Cook is 3-for-14 passing on throws 20-plus-yards downfield.
Instead, Cook and Co. like to protect the football while dinking and dunking down the middle, ranking 13th nationally in Success Rate and sixth in Havoc allowed. Part of Missouri’s Explosiveness issue is Luther Burden III's struggles, as the team's top deep threat has seen a monster decrease in target share year over year (from 34% to 18%).
But the Aggies have an excellent front seven, ranking in the top 15 nationally in Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards – they could win the short-to-intermediate middle of the field. And it would be massive if edge rushers Shemar Stewart and Nic Scourton could generate pressure on Cook, as Missouri’s quarterback has struggled in broken pockets (49.9 PFF Passing grade, 52% completion, 2.9 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT).
Scourton looked fantastic against Arkansas, and the pass-rush duo has combined for 26 pressures and 20 hurries this year.
I feel queasy about backing Texas A&M’s offense, especially considering the quarterback uncertainty – Weigman is a game-time decision, so he or Marcel Reed could start.
However, Reed’s a better fit to run the RPO package offense. The Aggies run a disciplined, rush-heavy offense (63% rush rate) that limits mistakes (10th in Havoc allowed). That could work against Missouri’s aggressive, Havoc-based defense. Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt’s quasi-triple option offense shredded Missouri for 27 points – why can’t Reed and the Aggies do the same?
And even if coach Mike Elko opts for the other option, a healthy Weigman could exploit Missouri’s vulnerability to chunk passing plays. The Tigers’ Havoc-based, aggressive defense ranks 110th in Explosiveness allowed.
At the minimum, Texas A&M should protect the rock and play defense. I’m betting that leads to a tight home win against an overrated Mizzou squad.
Pick: Texas A&M ML (-128 · Play to ML -135)
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Pitt vs North Carolina Best Bets
Pitt shouldn't be favored on the road, even if North Carolina is coming off two straight losses.
The Panthers' offensive numbers look great right now, but that's because they put up 52 points against Kent State in the first game of the season and 71 against Youngstown State.
It's also worth noting that Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein is a turnover waiting to happen. He has eight turnover-worthy plays in four games, compared to only six big-time throws.
Also, he wasn't very good in his lone road start at Cincinnati, posting a 38.9 PFF Passing grade.
Now he'll face a North Carolina secondary that’s only played one bad game this season. Last weekend against Duke, it held Maalik Murphy to 209 passing yards at 6.1 YPA.
North Carolina has switched its starting quarterback, as Jacolby Criswell will see his third start on Saturday. He was good in his first two outings, averaging eight yards per attempt.
He’s also been excellent in play-action situations, as he has an 82.3 PFF passing grade with a play fake. And that's important because North Carolina's offense relies heavily on running back Omarion Hampton. Hampton looks fantastic, averaging 5.8 yards per carry while posting 20 runs of at least 10 yards.
The offensive line is doing a great job of creating holes for Hampton, ranking 32nd nationally in Offensive Line Yards and 11th in Stuff Rate allowed.
In its two games against Cincinnati and West Virginia, Pittsburgh allowed well over four yards per carry. Plus, the secondary ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per Pass Allowed.
So, if North Carolina can run the ball effectively and get Criswell into play-action situations, it's going to find success.
Pick: North Carolina +3 (Play to +2)
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Purdue vs Wisconsin Best Bets
Two offenses stuck in the mud won't get any favors in Week 6.
Purdue and Wisconsin are both struggling on offense on a per-play basis. The Boilermakers are among the nation's 15 worst offenses in yards per play (4.4), and Wisconsin hasn’t been much better (4.6).
And both offenses will try to play in brutal conditions on Saturday.
We should see heavy winds in Madison on Saturday, including 15 mph cross-field breezes.
That's enough to ping one of our Action PRO Betting Models: Windy Unders. Since 2005, college football unders have hit at a 58% rate when there are 13-plus mph winds, producing an 11% ROI.
The direction of the wind doesn’t matter. Historically, appropriate gusts hamper kicking and passing accuracy.
Pick: Under 45 (Play to Under 43)
