Saturday College Football Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
| 12 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The penultimate slate of bowl games is upon us.
Before we start thinking about Monday's bowls and College Football Playoff semifinals, we have a four-game slate on Saturday. Our staff hand-picked four best bets for Saturday's college football bowl games, including picks for Ole Miss vs. Penn State in the Peach Bowl, Auburn vs. Maryland in the Music City Bowl and Toledo vs. Wyoming in the Arizona Bowl.
So, whether you're looking to keep the New Year's Six party rolling or looking to bet the last Group of Five matchup of the 2023 season, we have you covered.
Check out all four of our college football best bets for Saturday's bowl games below.
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Ole Miss vs. Penn State
Ole Miss +4.5
I view these two teams as pretty evenly matched from a talent standpoint, so I will gladly take the Rebels catching the points in this spot.
Additionally, both teams will have pretty much their entire roster available aside from 1-2 opt-outs on each side.
From a motivation standpoint, I think it’s pretty clear that both head coaches view this game as a big deal given its New Year's Six nature.
Expect a high level of intensity from both sides, but I anticipate Lane Kiffin to really lean into his aggressive nature given the fact that it’s a bowl game.
Fourth-down variance can sometimes spell trouble when you betting on a favorite, but with Ole Miss as an underdog, that aggression should only help.
Jaxson Dart has also played at an elite level all season, and I don’t see that changing against a good but not great PSU defense.
Give me the Rebs +4.5. Hotty Toddy.
Pick: Ole Miss +4.5 (Play to +4)
Over 49
By John Feltman
I think the absence of right tackle Micah Pettus is a big loss for the Rebels, but the Nittany Lions losing EDGE Chop Robinson is a much bigger void to fill.
The Rebels don’t appear to be getting much respect from the market, but I think this offense should be able to find some success throughout this contest.
As for the Nittany Lions, quarterback Drew Allar still has a lot to prove, but he has played great football since Week 9. He’s been attacking down the field at a much more frequent rate, and he doesn't have a single turnover-worthy throw in that span.
He will also be going up against a Rebels defense that plays a ton of quarters coverage, which is what he has done most of his damage against. The Rebels are also 61st in Defensive Finishing Drives, so I’d expect Penn State to score some touchdowns as they cross the 40-yard line.
Between Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Quinshon Judkins, I’d expect a few explosive runs in their usual zone-read concepts on offense. Penn State was prone to giving up explosive plays due to poor tackling throughout the season, and now they'll be without a couple of key defensive starters in Robinson and cornerback Johnny Dixon.
As high as I was on this Nittany Lions defense, this is a Rebels offense that should be able to put some points on the board. Forty-nine is a key number, so I’d try to bet this now in case the total climbs that high.
Pick: Over 49 or Better
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Auburn vs. Maryland
By Greg Liodice
Auburn and Maryland square off in the Music City Bowl, and the total sits at 47.5.
As I looked into each program’s schedule, both had a mixed bag of either higher-scoring or severely low-scoring games.
Maryland typically finds itself in shootouts, though, as opposed to Auburn, which had six games land under the total.
The thing is, Maryland will be without quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (opt-out) and tight end Corey Dyches (transfer portal). Without Tagovailoa, Billy Edwards Jr. is the next man up, and he underwhelmed in seven appearances this year. Luckily for Maryland, he will still have top targets in Jeshaun Jones, Tai Felton and Kaden Prather.
This is a team that relied heavily on throwing the football, where the Terrapins ranked 32nd in Success Rate through the air compared to 75th on the ground.
While tossing the ball around is usually conducive for an over, that may not be the case with a quarterback who has completed only four of his 10 passing attempts this season. That means the Terps may have to rely more on talented running back Roman Hemby, which will keep the clock moving.
Auburn is in a similar boat.
The Tigers rely on their run game, ranking 16th in Success Rate and 12th in rush rate. Jarquez Hunter is among one of the more explosive backs in the FBS, while quarterback Payton Thorne is also a threat to take off.
They didn’t go to the air much, ranking 112th in Success Rate and 116th in PPA. Losing Ja’Varrius Johnson and Malcolm Johnson Jr. to the transfer portal won’t help, so Auburn will need to look to Rivaldo Fairweather and Jay Fair to provide some diversity in its attack.
I’ll be curious to see how Edwards fares in his first start and if he can actually pick up the slack left by Tagovailoa. However, I think the lights will be too bright for the youngster and Maryland will be forced to turn the run game while attempting to outrun the Tigers.
I can see this game being very low-scoring for the sole fact that there’s a lot of uncertainty coming out of College Park. Pair that with a very unflashy Auburn team, and we could cash the under with ease.
Pick: Under 47.5 (Play to 45.5)
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Toledo vs. Wyoming
It’s hard to get hype for an inconsequential bowl game. It’s especially hard to get hype for the Arizona Bowl as the rest of the world anxiously awaits the College Football Playoff.
That looks to be the case for Toledo, which will not have its starting quarterback or running back in Tucson. Both quarterback Dequan Finn (transferring to Baylor) and running back Peny Boone (transfer portal) will not be available, which is a major gut punch to the Toledo offense.
Finn passed for 2,657 yards and 22 touchdowns while adding 563 yards and seven score on the ground this season. He'll be replaced by Tucker Gleason, who attempted only 21 passes this season.
Boone was a force on the ground, and his 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns on the season have drawn interest from a variety of Power 5 suitors.
However, Wyoming holds a key motivational edge in this matchup as it looks to send head coach Craig Bohl into retirement after the game. Bohl is a staple when it comes to football in Laramie and spent 42 years on the sidelines in his career. The final 10 were spent as the head ball coach of the only FBS team in the Cowboy State.
Without Finn and Boone, Toledo will have a tough time replicating the offensive success it had all season that helped it finish as the 17th-ranked scoring offense (33.6 PPG) in the nation.
Wyoming will come into the game at near full strength and will look to keep the ball on the ground to exploit the relative weakness of the Toledo rush defense. The Cowboys really don’t have a choice because they have one of the weakest passing games in FBS, finishing the season as the 119th-ranked passing offense.
Initially, I liked backing Wyoming at -3.5, but as I went through the game, I think the play is the under.
Toledo has a ton of offense to replace and will be getting a very motivated Wyoming squad. The issue for Wyoming is that Toledo still has a very solid defense despite the gaps on offense and should be able to stymie the Cowboys enough to keep this close.
The total is right in line with our Action Network PRO Projection of 45.1 points, but with Toledo introducing new members at two of the most important positions, I like backing the under.
I recommend betting the under at 43.5 or better.
Pick: Under 44.5 (Play to 43.5)
