Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Odds & Betting Predictions - November 20, 2025

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Miami Ohio is in the middle of a bizarre situation. Their starting quarterback, Dequan Finn, has stepped away from the program mid season to “prepare for the NFL Draft” (he’s nowhere close to NFL caliber). It was a shocking and very weird move for the veteran QB to make. It’s especially odd considering Miami Ohio is right in the mix of teams vying to make the MAC Championship Game. Today’s matchup with Buffalo is an elimination game between these two teams. The loser is out of the conference title race, while the winner gets a massive boost in their odds to make the title game. That only makes it all the more strange that Finn essentially quit on his team mid season. Miami Ohio now expects to start senior Henry Hesson at quarterback, a player who has spent all four years in this system. You may think it’s nuts to bet on a team that just changed quarterbacks, but there’s a reason I’m not too worried about it. I was beyond unimpressed with Dequan Finn’s play on the field. He was a run first quarterback who simply wasn’t explosive and was brutal when forced to pass. Hesson started last game against Toledo, and let’s just say it didn’t go too hot. However, I have reason to believe he can bounce back. Finn’s decision to sit out gave Hesson no time to prepare, and then he had to face the best secondary in the Group of 5. Toledo’s secondary has two potential NFL guys and is graded as PFF’s top 4 unit. On short prep that is an impossible challenge. Hesson struggling was inevitable. Now Hesson gets a full week of practice with the starting offense and also has a game under his belt. Miami Ohio is also a run first team, they pass only 45.28% of the time, so that will take some of the pressure off Hesson. The Buffalo defense is good, but it’s a step down from what Hesson saw last week. Buffalo is also dealing with some defensive opt-outs/injuries. The Bulls defense was just throttled by Central Michigan last week, surrendering 38 points in a lousy effort. This Buffalo team is talented but extremely frustrating and careless with the football. Their offense leaves a lot to be desired, especially with QB Ta’Quan Roberson. The Miami Ohio secondary is very solid and should give Roberson problems all night. Miami Ohio’s defense is also elite at preventing big plays (top 20), and in a game like this, any big play could be the difference. Our model has Miami Ohio winning 21.58 to 19.68. This game will be beyond ugly, but I think Miami Ohio can win this slugfest.

As discussed on BBOC Sunday Recap. Will look to hedge Live