Bowling Green vs. Louisville Odds & Betting Predictions - September 20, 2025

It was a best bet for me a few weeks back, JMU+14.5, won by the hook. But I came away super impressed with Ron English’s defense. FULL of disruptive athletes. They’re averaging five sacks per game, tops in the nation. Second in yards per play allowed. Best of luck Drew Pyne. Clev Lubin and Wesley Bailey are going to uncork Pyne’s head. With a clean pocket, I trust Miller Moss. Against JMU he was pressured 10 times, and he didn’t look good. Bowling Green can’t generate pressure from a four man rush. They mustered 3 total pressures against Sorsby and Cincinnati. And the lesson there was, we gotta blitz more, which they did against Liberty. They generated 10 pressures and sacked Vasko 4 times. Here’s the thing though, Moss has been a big play killer when blitzed in his entire career. This season his aDOT against the blitz is 14.8 with 2 TDs and 0 INTs. In 2024 at USC, 13 TDs:2 INTs when facing the blitz. And he was even better in 2023 with a PFF passer grade of 91.7 against the blitz. So they’re damned if they do, damned if the don’t against Moss. And then there’s Isaac Brown one of the best explosive runners in the sport. If you got a big number to cover, you want those one-play scores from 50+ yards out. Brown has the highest breakaway percentage in the sport, which means 84% of his rushing yardage has come on runs of 15+ yards. He’s insanely explosive.

Project 47; BGSU one of the slowest tempos in nation, outside T100 in rush success rate and finishing drives. Louisville off bye, severe favor to Bowling Green Defense in rush metrics and Cardinals strength of schedule 125th