Michigan St vs. Iowa Odds & Betting Predictions - March 7, 2025

Tailing @nick_giffen

Prophetx

This is a perfect buy low, sell high opportunity. Michigan State is on an absolute tear, having won 5 straight games against ranked opponents. The Spartans are riding high into March and have looked dominant. On the flip side, Iowa has looked like a corpse ever since losing their starting center to injury. These two teams couldn’t be heading in more different directions. However, even with all that being said, I believe this is a spot Iowa will get up for. Not only is it Iowa’s senior night and home finale, but the Hawkeyes are playing for their season. Many might not realize this, but the Big 10 doesn’t guarantee a spot in the conference tournament for every team. Only 15 of the 18 teams are eligible, and Iowa is right on the brink of elimination. With a 6-12 conference record, the Hawkeyes are just behind 5 teams with a 7-12 record. This is a must win game for Iowa. Meanwhile, Michigan State already clinched a share of the Big 10 title with Michigan's loss yesterday. A win today against Iowa would secure the title outright. However, despite this, I think this is a potential trap game for the Spartans. Michigan State has a major look ahead spot to Saturday’s rivalry matchup against Michigan at the Breslin Center. Winning a title at home against their in-state rivals would be the ultimate dream scenario for these players. The motivation to win today might not be as high as it should be. On the other hand, Iowa has everything to play for on senior night. Now, let’s break down the matchup. First things first: Iowa’s defense and rebounding are subpar, to say the least, but this is more of a bet on their elite offense and desperation. Iowa has been torched by opposing teams from deep all season, but Michigan State is one of the worst teams in the country at shooting the 3 ball. The Spartans rank 345th in 3P%, and won’t be able to exploit Iowa’s defensive weakness from beyond the arc. Michigan State’s 3 point defense has been elite in conference play, but they haven’t faced a team that shoots as well as Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 24th in the country in 3P%, and shoot the ball at a 35.4% rate from deep. I expect Iowa’s shooting to finally expose a Michigan State defense due for major shooting regression. While Michigan State has relied heavily on free throws to bail them out of possessions, Iowa is one of the best teams in the country at not fouling on defense. The Spartans, who started the season ranked just 35th in the KenPom preseason rankings (two spots below Iowa), have peaked after 5 straight ranked wins. This is a prime spot to sell on Michigan State. While the Hawkeyes have been dreadful on the road (1-8), they boast a solid 12-5 home record. Iowa has had Michigan State’s number in recent years, winning 5 of the last 6 matchups. I’ll step in front of the Michigan State train and take the Hawkeyes to cover at home.

Ideal spot here. Sparty off 5 straight ranked wins and covers with Michigan on deck. Iowa opposite end of spectrum with 5 straight non covers. Probably at peak on Sparty and bottom of Freeman-less Hawkeyes. Should get max effort final home game playing for spot in conference tourney. Big 10 opponents will eventually make a 3 against Michigan State (26% in league play on high volume which Iowa will certainly test…shooting over 40% from 3 at home). Will get crushed on glass which is concerning but can make up for some with turnover margin. Fran has owned Izzo in recent years fwiw.