Sunday features a six-game NBA slate, and five of the 12 teams in action are on the first leg of an upcoming back-to-back set. These teams include the 76ers, Clippers, Pacers, Pistons and Cavaliers. When capping NBA props, understanding the preceeding and upcoming schedules of teams can give insight into minutes and usage.
If the basketball angle fits, looking for unders on the first leg of back to backs, or overs for team with set rest, often proves to be desirable. Let's dig into tonight's NBA player prop picks, and I have expert picks for Draymond Green, CJ McCollum and Kelly Oubre.
Tonight's NBA Player Prop Picks
The Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram for the next two weeks, and CJ McCollum will receive the biggest net gain in Usage Rate. In Ingram's absence, Trey Murphy III and some of the bench shooters for New Orleans will fill in to maintain floor spacing. By inserting shooters and by making McCollum more of a creator, his assist opportunities will significantly increase.
I suspect the standard line for McCollum's assists becomes 4.5 in the next week, and I like playing the standard Over 3.5 Assists line as well as tacking on 5+ as an escalator. Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, who both have size and speed on McCollum, will be guarding him for most of the game, so his ability to create may often lead to a pass.
Pick: CJ McCollum Over 3.5 Assists (-145 at DraftKings)
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The 76ers are among the teams that face a back-to-back set on Sunday and Monday. Normally the back-to-back set when facing the Clippers is also against the Lakers, and thus there is no travel into the second night. However, the 76ers took on the Lakers on Friday and will fly to Sacramento to take on the Kings on Monday night.
Oubre has gotten a bump in Usage Rate in the absence of Joel Embiid, but Tobias Harris also missed a string of games and has been passive in his moments on the court. I suspect Harris to return to the lineup today in a revenge game against his former team, the Clippers. With chatter of Harris not scoring enough, that will lead to a more aggressive Harris output — and thus a lower Oubre Usage Rate.
Oubre will also likely be dealing with Kawhi Leonard and/or Paul George for most of the game, which is a daunting task to score against.
Pick: Kelly Oubre Under 18.5 Points (-110 at DraftKings)
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The correlation between Draymond Green's performances and Stephen Curry's availability has been well documented. When Curry is active, the Warriors often get the best out of Green. Let's look to the last four games since Curry returned from the ankle sprain.
In this stretch, Green has attempted double-digit field goal attempts in the last two games and no fewer than six field goal attempts. Over the course of the season, Green averages over one point per field goal attempt and about one free throw made per game. If we take these statistics and recent usage, Green should be expected to score around 10 points in this game.
Add in the fact the Warriors are going up against the Timberwolves, so Green will likely have moments at the five against Rudy Gobert where he hangs on the perimeter to try and draw the most space. Gobert is not going to close out all the way, and Green should have some clear 3-point opportunities. The upside play for Green to have two or three made 3-pointers is also an intriguing plus-money prop.
Pick: Draymond Green Over 7.5 Points (-110 at DraftKings)
