Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks | Best Bet for Monday
Here's everything you need to know about Timberwolves vs. Thunder on Monday, Jan. 29 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Timberwolves will travel to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder for the fourth and final time this regular season. Can the Wolves even up the season series, or will the Thunder pick up their third win over the Wolves?
Let's get to our Timberwolves vs. Thunder prediction and pick.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction
Pick: Timberwolves ML +115
Timberwolves Betting Outlook
The Wolves did a lot of things right in their last matchup against the Thunder as their offensive shot profile was terrific. They generated about 80% of their attempts either at the rim or from 3. However, they struggled to connect on these looks, particularly at the rim where they shot an awful 50%.
Overall, their effective field goal percentage for the game was 51.4% (29th percentile). Minnesota has shot below the 35th percentile from the field in all three of their games against the Thunder.
The Wolves have also struggled with turnovers as they have turned the ball over on 20% of their possessions in all three games against the Thunder. For reference, a 20% Turnover Rate ranks in the fifth percentile of all performances. OKC is elite at forcing turnovers as its defense leads the NBA in Turnover Rate (16.0%).
If the Timberwolves take care of the ball, they can force the Thunder to play in the halfcourt more often on offense. This is key as the Timberwolves' halfcourt defense has been elite in two of these three games. The one game where they struggled was the game where the Thunder shot an unbelievable 71.1% Effective Field Goal Percentage, a 99th percentile performance and a clear statistical outlier.
The Timberwolves' halfcourt process is clearly sound, and as long as they can cut down on fouling, they should have success defensively in the halfcourt once again. If the Timberwolves take care of the ball on offense and stop fouling on defense, they will have a great chance of pulling the upset.
Thunder Betting Outlook
The Thunder have played one home game over their last two weeks and just three total home games this entire month. They’ve played 11 road games during that span, so being home should be a nice refresher. They dropped a game to the lowly Pistons yesterday, and this is certainly a bounce-back spot.
The Thunder are the anti-Timberwolves in that they don’t rebound well on either end but do generate extra possessions by creating the most turnovers while also committing the fewest turnovers. They have the second-lowest Offensive Turnover Rate while the Timberwolves offense ranks 28th in Turnover Rate. However, the Thunder rank among the bottom three in the league in both Offensive and Defensive Rebound Rate this season.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Picks, Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -112 | 225 -110o / -110u | +114 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -108 | 225 -110o / -110u | -135 |
The Timberwolves can steal this game if they have just an average shooting night and take care of the ball slightly better. The Wolves have played this Thunder team competitively despite awful offensive performances, so if they can put together a focused effort on that end, it should lead to success.
Take the Timberwolves on the moneyline here as a +115 underdog.
