Thunder vs Blazers Prediction, Picks Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Thunder vs Trail Blazers on Wednesday, March 6 — our expert prediction and betting picks for tonight.
The Oklahoma City Thunder may have a couple of losses to their name over the last week, but they should enter Wednesday's game against the Portland Trail Blazers at Moda Center brimming with confidence off the back of seven wins in their last nine contests. Thunder vs Blazers tips off at 10 p.m. ET on NBA League Pass. Thunder vs Blazers odds have the Thunder as 13.5-point favorites (-13.5), with the total set at over/under 224 points at FanDuel Sportsbook.
With injuries mounting for the Trail Blazers, might their positive run of form come to an end against one of the toughest teams in the Western Conference?
Let's get to my Thunder vs Blazers prediction and Thunder vs Blazers picks.
Pick: Thunder -11.5 | Play to -13
Thunder vs Blazers Prediction
Pick: Thunder -11.5 | Play to -13
Thunder Betting Outlook
While the Thunder have been hard to stop in Oklahoma City, the road has been a much different story. At just 18-13 straight up (SU) and 10-10 against the spread (ATS) as favorites, these have traditionally been spots to stay away from one of the friendlier teams to bettors.
Coming to the end of a four-game road trip, things have predictably gotten a bit bumpy for the Thunder. They've dropped games to the Lakers and Spurs, with a win over a slightly shorthanded Suns team sandwiched in between.
Still, this team has continued to be one of the three strongest in the NBA on the offensive side of the floor since the start of February. And while their defensive production has slipped by around a point per 100 possessions during that time, they still rank 12th since February 1.
The Thunder have played without Jaylin Williams (knee) for the last two games, and they will once again be missing their reserve wing for this one. That said, his defense has been a bit of a liability over the last two seasons. According to Dunks & Threes, he's just 37th in Estimated Plus/Minus this season.
Oklahoma City's elite defensive numbers across all shooting zones have taken a step back since the start of February, with the exception of its rim defense, which has remained the best in basketball. That's where a lot of opponents' shots have been coming from — many more than we've seen for the entire season — so theoretically that shouldn't prove to be too much of a concern though these are, of course, higher percentage shots.
On the other end, though the Thunder continue to favor the inefficient mid-range show, they've seen a bit of an uptick in their shot frequency within four feet, according to Cleaning the Glass, though they continue to struggle finding an edge down there.
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Trail Blazers Betting Outlook
The Trail Blazers have fought through some significant injury troubles to take two of their last three games. They even earned a win ATS vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 119-114 defeat. While the Blazers' two wins came over the lowly Memphis Grizzlies, they followed a relatively promising performance in a loss to the Miami Heat, giving them four straight encouraging performances.
With that said, things are looking more and more arduous as injuries continue to pile up. Scoot Henderson (thigh) and Malcolm Brogdon (elbow) remain out and Deandre Ayton (hand) is doubtful and looking likely to miss a fourth straight game. Even team leader, Jerami Grant (quad), is questionable after missing Monday's game. On top of that, Portland also played on Monday without Matisse Thybulle (hip) and Toumani Camara (illness) — both are questionable for Wednesday night.
Can a team led by Anfernee Simons — with just Kris Murray and Jabari Walker to help him, with Duop Reath manning the frontcourt — really get it done against the Thunder? Well, it was good enough to compete with the Timberwolves, withstanding nearly a 40% shooting night from 3 and coming up with more rebounds than a strong frontcourt. It took 34 points from Simons, 26 from Reath and 18 from Dalano Blanton to get the job done. While the Thunder have done an exceptional job down low, their 3-point defense certainly has left a lot to be desired.
It's worth noting that the Timberwolves still had a very easy time scoring in the paint, and that will likely continue as long as Ayton is sidelined.
Thunder vs Blazers Picks, Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 224 -108o / -112u | -900 |
| Trail Blazers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 224 -108o / -112u | +610 |
We've seen shorthanded teams deliver special performances over the years, and Monday's tight loss to the Timberwolves was certainly one of those for Portland. That magic only lasts for a defined period of time, though, and without much depth and some key members of the defense missing, along with the offensive mastery of Henderson, it's only a matter of time before this team looks vulnerable again.
Portland is just 10-13 ATS as home underdogs this season and it has a few too many injuries to trust in this spot even after factoring in the Thunder's struggles on the road. The Blazers' rim defense should be incredibly vulnerable here, so even if their shots continue to fall from outside, Oklahoma City should be able to continue to win the war of attrition against a depleted frontcourt.
Road wins have been hard to come by for the Thunder, but they should seize the opportunity on Wednesday and come up with a big performance against a team due for regression.
