Thunder vs Suns Prediction, Picks for Sunday, Nov. 12
Here's everything you need to know about Thunder vs Suns on Sunday, Nov. 12 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Oklahoma City Thunder face off against the Phoenix Suns as both teams look to bounce back after disappointing In-Season Tournament losses on Friday night.
The Suns have their best chance at seeing their squad at relatively full health now that Bradley Beal has returned from injury. He’s still on the injury report, but is listed as probable. Devin Booker hasn't been officially ruled out yet, although he is listed as doubtful. Eric Gordon is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, while the Thunder have all of their regular rotation players at the ready.
Let's get to our Thunder vs. Suns prediction and pick.
Thunder vs Suns Prediction
In Beal’s first game back, he was on a minutes limit and only played 24 minutes. He certainly needed to shake off the rust as he finished the game with 13 points on 3-of-12 shooting. However, he did connect on half of his six 3-point attempts.
Phoenix got out to an early lead in the first quarter, but let Chicago catch up in the second quarter — a zig-zag trend that has been a pattern lately for the Suns.
In their past five games, the Suns are 3-1-1 ATS in the first quarter, but just 1-4 ATS in the second quarter. They get out to leads, but let their opponent close the gap before halftime.
The Thunder have almost opposite zig-zag patterns from an ATS perspective. Oklahoma City isn't a bad first quarter team (5-4 ATS), but doesn't have a top-end starting five like the Suns, who are a league-best 7-1 ATS in the first 12 minutes. The Thunder have more depth than most teams, so their lows are higher, which means they can take advantage of opponent’s second unit, which has translated to a 6-3 ATS mark in the second quarter. Their depth means they’re never fully out of games either, which gives us ample in-game betting opportunities.
First halves aside, both teams tend to score a lot after halftime. Suns coach Frank Vogel has opted to start second halves with more offensive lineups, sometimes at the expensive of defense. As a result, the Suns have had very high-scoring third quarters (31.7 points per game) — which is also the case for the Thunder (30.3).
For Oklahoma City, the high-scoring third quarters are a result of Pace. The Thunder rank sixth in third quarter Pace this season (102) and have paired that with top-10 offense (119.2 Offensive Rating), but just the 19th-ranked defense (117.8). Meanwhile, the Suns are second in offense (129), but just 27th on defense (124.8).
Thunder vs Suns Picks, Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 225 -110 / -110 | +120 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 225 -110 / -110 | -142 |
I like a few quarter bets in this game, my favorite of which is the third quarter over. Both of these teams have insane over records dating back to last season. Oklahoma City was 77-7 to the third quarter over last season and is 7-2 this season. The Suns are 88-14 since 2022-23 and a perfect 9-0 this season.
If one of Beal, Gordon or Booker plays, I’ll take the Suns on the first-quarter spread. With all three out, there’s just not enough fire power to feel confident in them taking care of business. Regardless of personnel for the Suns, if the Thunder lose the first quarter by a wide enough margin, I’ll look at a live betting opportunity for the Thunder’s first-half lines. Follow me in the app to see how I play Thunder vs. Suns live (AOWatts13).
Pick: 3rd Quarter Over | Wait for Suns Injury News, Then Possibly Bet Suns 1st Quarter ATS
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