Thunder vs Pelicans Odds, Pick
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -112 | 204.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
| Pelicans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -108 | 204.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
Here's everything you need to know about Thunder vs. Pelicans on Monday, April 29 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.
The Oklahoma City Thunder took a commanding 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven series against the New Orleans Pelicans. After a 94-92 win in Game 1, OKC has won the last two games in the series by a combined 53 points. The Thunder's winning streak against the Pelicans is now at five games.
Perhaps the writing is already on the wall, as no team has come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs.
The Pelicans must play almost a perfect game to beat the Thunder because OKC is currently showing very few weaknesses. Instead, we’re seeing a New Orleans team that has been a bit careless while not doing enough of the little things to give itself a chance.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Despite clinching the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, some questions remained about this Thunder team — such as whether their inexperience would hurt them, or whether Chet Holmgren’s slight frame would be able to handle the physicality in the paint during the playoffs.
Apparently, OKC is doing just fine, and its 94-point effort in Game 1 likely had more to do with some early jitters. That performance was particularly impressive because they got out-rebounded 52-44 and still won the game despite having 11 fewer shot attempts.
Although it was a narrow margin, the Thunder won the rebounding battle in each of the next two games (84-80).
However, Oklahoma City created plenty of separation with its perimeter game, shooting 31-of-65 (47.7%) from beyond the arc. The Thunder lead the league in 3-point shooting percentage (39%), and if the Pelicans allow them to get into a groove, New Orleans will have no chance of extending the series any further.
New Orleans Pelicans
There’s no question that the Pelicans are a much better team than they’ve shown thus far. After all, this team finished the regular season with the sixth-best Net Rating (+4.6).
The problem is that everything gets magnified in the postseason as teams tend to get very familiar with one another in a head-to-head series.
While some might point to Zion Williamson's absence as the reason for the Pelicans’ struggles, it’s worth noting that they had a higher Net Rating (+5.0) in the 12 games he missed during the regular season.
New Orleans is up against a quality defensive Thunder team that ranked fourth in defensive efficiency with 111 points allowed per 100 possessions. Oklahoma City is relentless at creating turnovers, leading the league with 15.7 per game. In the series' last two games, OKC forced 39 Pelicans turnovers.
It doesn’t help that New Orleans doesn’t play with a traditional point guard, making it even more vulnerable to turning the ball over. As a result, the Pelicans face a massive disadvantage in terms of personnel, which the Thunder are well-positioned to exploit.
Thunder vs. Pelicans
Betting Pick & Prediction
Usually, you can point to some sign of optimism even in a loss, but good luck trying to find one if you’re the Pelicans.
New Orleans is shooting 40.3% from the floor during the playoffs, putting it last among the 16 teams. The Pelicans simply haven’t been able to raise their level of play, and OKC’s defense has certainly played a part.
It feels like we’ve reached the point of no return with this Pelicans team, which has shown no improvement since Game 1.
According to our Action Labs database, home 'dogs with three straight losses entering a playoff game are just 18-27-4 against the spread for a loss of 10.22 units.
Once OKC starts cooking from the perimeter, there’s not much more opposing teams can do.
Given that it’s difficult to see a path forward with this Pelicans team, I can only look to lay the 4.5 points with the Thunder on the road.
Pick: Thunder -4.5
