Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction, Picks for Friday, Dec. 29
Here's everything you need to know about Thunder vs. Nuggets on Friday, Dec. 29 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Thunder will travel to face the Nuggets in Denver on Friday night. Can this young Thunder squad overcome the altitude and rally for a win? Or will Jokic and the Nuggets defend their homecourt?
Let's get to our Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction and pick.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction
Pick: Over 235.5
Thunder Betting Outlook
The Thunder have had a massively successful season thus far as they now rank third in schedule adjusted net-rating despite playing the seventh most difficult schedule in the NBA according to dunksandthrees.com.
They are also one of four teams that rank top-10 in both adjusted offensive rating and adjusted defensive rating. They should have a slight edge over the Nuggets here as Denver will be without Aaron Gordon on Friday night.
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Nuggets Betting Outlook
Denver exploded offensively against this Thunder team in their first matchup erupting for 128 points in a blowout victory. These teams also matched up two weeks ago and Denver lost 118-117. I think the Nuggets probably take that game if they don’t shoot so poorly from the field and at the rim. They shot just 50% at the rim (5th percentile) so it was clearly an outlier poor shooting game for Denver.
Aaron Gordon will be out here so expect the Nuggets to turn to Peyton Watson for more minutes at the power forward position. Watson is coming off an impressive 20-point outing against the Grizzlies and this may be a good spot for him to continue his ascendance.
The Thunder rank sixth in pace so Watson can likely showcase his elite athleticism and talent here. Nikola Jokic should have a consistent advantage in the post against Chet Holmgren as the weight disparity between the two centers is massive.
Holmgren is a legitimately elite defender and rim-protector but still struggles against some of the stronger centers in the league like Jokic. In their last matchup he actually did a decent job on Jokic limiting him to 24 points on 8-15 shooting.
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Thunder vs. Nuggets Picks, Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 235.5 -110 / -110 | +125 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 235.5 -110 / -110 | -150 |
I’d lean towards the Nuggets here but I like the full game over at 235.5. The Thunder have been flying over totals as of late and the Nuggets should be well-rested here after a blowout win over the Grizzlies last night.
None of their key players played more than 30 minutes so I am not expecting any Nuggets to rest.
The Thunder do not matchup well with this Nuggets team and I think the Nugget defense may take a step backwards without Aaron Gordon in the lineup over the next few weeks. Take the over at 234.5 if you can, but I'd play this up to 236.
Pick: Over 235.5
