Lakers vs Thunder Prediction, Picks Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Lakers vs Thunder on Monday, March 4 — our expert prediction and betting picks for tonight.
The Los Angeles Lakers host the Oklahoma City Thunder Monday night, one day after LeBron & Co. faced another Western Conference giant in the Suns. Lakers vs Thunder tips off at 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV on Monday. The Thunder are 1-point favorites over the Lakers (-1), and the total is over/under 239 points scored at FanDuel Sportsbook.
This will be the fourth meeting this season between the two teams and the Lakers have taken advantage of the season series thus far. OKC won the first meeting on Nov. 30, 133-110, but the two most recent games have gone the Lakers way despite missing Anthony Davis for one of those games.
Let's get to our Lakers vs Thunder prediction and Lakers vs Thunder picks for the best Lakers vs Thunder bet tonight.
Pick: LeBron James Over 31.5 Points + Assists
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 239 -110o / -110u | -116 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 239 -110o / -110u | -102 |
Lakers vs Thunder Prediction
Pick: LeBron James Over 31.5 Points + Assists
Lakers Betting Outlook
This Lakers team can be quite beatable at times and look entirely dominant at others.
As great as this iteration of the Thunder have been, the Lakers have found success against Oklahoma City thanks to their blend of size and defense.
I mentioned the Thunder’s lack of size earlier, but another thing that helps the Lakers in this matchup is the specific opportunity for LeBron James. Despite his age, James still gets to the rim quite a lot. He has a Rim Rate of 45 percent, which puts him in the 83rd percentile for his position — and that’s an area where the Thunder are susceptible.
The Thunder have the best rim defense in the league, with opponents shooting 60 percent at the rack, but they give opponents a lot of bites at the apple by giving up 32.9 percent of opponent shots in the paint. That should bode well for the Lakers star coming off his 40,000th point in a loss to the Nuggets.
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Thunder Betting Outlook
The Thunder are coming off a game against the Suns without Devin Booker Sunday night and have done well in this type of spot this season.
On the second night of a back-to-back, OKC is 7-3 against the spread (ATS), and it’s still a rest advantage for the Thunder despite the back-to-back. The Lakers had Sunday night off, but this will be their fourth game in six nights.
The Lakers' size does present some matchup problems for the Thunder. As great as they’ve been under head coach Mark Daigneault, they have never prioritized size and are thin in the front court as a result.
Rookie of the Year candidate Chet Holmgren has been a revelation, but he’s one of the only players with size on the Thunder, and that size is vertical, not horizontal. Holmgren clocks in at under 200 lbs., and with Jaylin Williams unlikely to play (knee), there isn’t much to get in the way of the size of Davis, LeBron James, Rui Hachimura and Co.
That said, the Thunder aren’t a team that takes kindly to losing — especially not twice in a row. The matchup might favor the Lakers, but the rest advantage and revenge factor favors the Thunder.
Lakers vs Thunder Picks, Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 238 -110o / -110u | -124 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 238 -110o / -110u | +106 |
James should have a big game tonight, and I think we see him take on a facilitating role as well as a scoring one in order to get the win from this young OKC team that is on a back-to-back.
My model makes this OKC, but I think they’re playing a little too uneven for my taste, and I’ll take James to have a big night instead with his Points + Assists line at 31.5 and up to 32.5.
