Thunder vs. Kings Prediction, Picks for Thursday, Dec. 14
Here's everything you need to know about Thunder vs. Kings on Thursday, Dec. 14 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Oklahoma City Thunder look to continue their strong start to the season as they head to Sacramento for a showdown against the Kings. Can De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis protect home court?
Let's get to our Thunder vs. Kings prediction and pick.
Thunder vs. Kings Prediction
Pick: Thunder Moneyline
Thunder Betting Outlook
The Thunder are 15-7 and in second place in a loaded Western Conference. They're the top performing team in the West in Net Rating (+7.5), per Basketball Reference. They've been led by an incredible season from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 30.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game. Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP level (+900 MGM) and should garner some consideration, though he's third in BPM (+10.8 Box Plus/Minus).
Chet Holmgren has also been a major contributor in his rookie season. Holmgren is averaging 17 points, 7.8 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 2.4 blocks per game. Those are incredible counting stats and his defensive impact has been significant. Holmgren's ability to consistently play center has been tremendously successful for the Thunder. The team is +6.6 with him on the floor and that number jumps to +11.2 when paired with Gilgeous-Alexander, per Cleaning the Glass.
The one concern with Oklahoma City is that they don't take many 3s and their expected eFG% is nearly 2% lower than their actual eFG% (56.6%). The biggest discrepancy is that they are the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the league, making 39.7% of their 3-point attempts. On the flip side, they allow a high frequency of 3-point attempts, but have managed to limit the conversion rate and have the third-best eFG% allowed (51.5%).
Kings Betting Outlook
The Kings are fifth in the Western Conference with a 13-9 record and have been even better with De'Aaron Fox. Fox has a +13.7 Net Rating when he's been on the floor, but when he's been off the court, the team has an abysmal -9.2 Net Rating. Fox is playing tonight and they'll need him to contend in this spot.
These teams played each other a month ago and Fox wasn't available for that game, which the Kings won 105-98.
One player to target will be Domantas Sabonis, who torched Holmgren for 17 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists when these teams last played. That was without Fox, so the usage could come down a bit. In their game a month ago, Sabonis had 26 Rebound Chances and converted 13.
Thunder vs. Kings Picks, Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 | 242 -110/-110 | +102 |
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 | 242 -110/-110 | -121 |
This is going to be a thrilling Thursday night showdown between the Thunder and Kings.
While these teams seem close on paper, the Thunder are better. Oklahoma City has a Net Rating of +7.5, while the Kings are -0.5, per Basketball Reference. Even if we account for Fox missing time, the Kings are still just +4.5 in Net Rating when Fox is on the floor and he can't play all 48 minutes, per Cleaning the Glass.
Oklahoma City is a deeper team and has the best Point Differential in the NBA on the road with a +7.9 Net Rating and a 7-3 record straight up. I'll forego the points and grab the road dog on the moneyline.
