PropBetGuy will break down his favorite NBA play of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Chet Holmgren 14+ Points + 8+ Rebounds (-107)
Pelicans vs. Thunder | 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT
The young Thunder eked out their first playoff win in five seasons with a 94-92 victory in Game 1 against the Pelicans. And despite a 1-of-7 start from the field, Chet Holmgren managed a respectable 15-point and 11-rebound stat line.
For Game 2, I’m banking on the big man to continue to produce in a matchup he’s thrived in over the course of this season.
In Holmgren’s three regular-season matchups against the Pelicans, he’s registered 16 points and nine rebounds, 20 and 13 and 19 and 11.
Pelicans big man Jonas Valanciunas, who rates in the sixth percentile of defensive plus-minus, per Dunks and Threes, is not fleet-footed enough to guard the athletic Holmgren. And back-up center Larry Nance Jr. cedes too much height.
With the Pelicans' star wing defenders (Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III and Naji Marshall) matched up with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, Holmgren has been able to cash in on the scoreboard.
Regardless of the matchup, scoring at least 14 points is ho-hum for Chet. In games with Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, Holmgren has cleared this points total in 40-of-50 (80%) when playing at least 28 minutes.
And on the rebounding side, Holmgren has accrued at least 17 rebound chances in each game against New Orleans. For context, the Gonzaga alum averaged 7.9 rebounds per game on just 14.5 rebound chances in the regular season.
Despite being a rookie, Holmgren has been one of the more consistent players in the NBA and is a massive reason for the Thunder’s success this season.
With Game 1 jitters in the rear-view mirror, I project Holmgren at 17 points and 10 rebounds tonight.
