On Friday, we were tracking towards a NBA player props sweep as Scottie Barnes had six rebounds at halftime. However, Barnes fractured his hand and will be out indefinitely. Hopefully, Barnes is back on the court soon and we will look to continue the momentum into a new week, having gone 13-8 since the All-Star break.
Tonight, I have my eye out West with the Jazz hosting the Wizards. Tyus Jones may pile up the assists in what should be a fast-paced game.
In the nightcap, the Lakers will host the Thunder in what could be a first-round preview. Luguentz Dort has a favorable matchup to exploit against the Lakers.
Let's dive into my top two player props for Monday, March 4.
NBA Player Props | Monday, March 4
Tyus Jones has had at least nine assists in nine of his past 10 games. In that span, he is averaging 11.6 assists per game as well as 10.3 over his last 15 games. That has helped him hit this line in six of his last 10 games. Tonight, he has a great matchup for that trend to continue.
The Jazz are 29th in assists allowed per game this season. Per FantasyPros, they are also 29th in assists allowed to point guards, allowing 11.8 assists to the position over their past 15 games. In that same span, they also have the league's worst defensive rating. Tonight's total is over 240 points as both teams are top-10 in pace over their past 15 games.
It is worth noting that Washington is 28th in offensive rating in that span as well, but that has not stopped Jones from getting assists. In fact, he has 14 assists or more in four recent games. Washington is also averaging 123 points on the first two games of its road trip. As six-point underdogs, Washington's offense may help it hang around tonight as the Jazz will be without Lauri Markkanen.
This line has moved to 10.5 on some books, which is fine. I'm going for 9.5 for the increased hit rate, but Jones will offer even more value if he climbs his ladder once again. On FanDuel, Jones is +175 for 12 assists and +490 for 14 assists, which again he has already done four times.
Pick: Tyus Jones Over 9.5 Assists (-135)
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Last night, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander put on another MVP-caliber performance with 35 points as he helped the Thunder fend off a rally from the Suns. He has now scored 30 points in eight straight games. Gilgeous-Alexander has found success against the Lakers as well previously, that will also put him at the top of the game plan tonight. If he is drawing more attention, I like him to find Luguentz Dort in the corner.
Dort has scored 13 points in four of his past eight games. He is also averaging 13 points in his past five games against the Lakers. He has scored 11 points in four of those games as well. Dort has made two 3-pointers in four straight games against the Lakers and seven of his last 10 games overall. He is averaging roughly one made 3-pointer per game from the corner, where he is shooting 41%, and he knocked down a couple last night.
The Lakers are 27th in 3-pointers allowed per game and 21st in 3-point percentage defense — and as a result, Dort is heavily juiced (-175) for two made threes tonight. If the oddsmakers expect him to make two tonight, that means we will only need him to come up with five more points. A few could come on another long range attempt considering that he has knocked down three 3-pointers in five of his last eight games.
Dort is +200 for three made long balls tonight. For plus odds — and to remove the hook — you could also combine him for 10 points with Gilgeous-Alexander for six assists at +122 on FanDuel. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 6.3 assists over his past 10 games and 7.2 in his last five against the Lakers.
Pick: Luguentz Dort Over 10.5 Points (-106)
