NBA Rivals Week came to an end on Saturday, but one matchup that may be featured next season is the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Minnesota Timberwolves, mainly because of their young stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards. Nine days ago, Gilgeous-Alexander scored over 30 points to help his Thunder secure their second straight win over the Timberwolves.
However, Edwards was not pleased with 13 his free throw attempts. He will have his chance to do something about it tonight as Minnesota looks to salvage a split in the season series.
Meanwhile, in Memphis, the Kings will continue their road trip as they take on the Grizzlies. We cashed on Vince Williams Jr. a few days ago and I will be looking to back him again. However, Domantas Sabonis also has a great matchup against his Grizzlies.
Let's dive into my top three NBA player props for Monday, January 29.
NBA Player Props
In last Saturday's game, Anthony Edwards finished with 19 points. He had the opportunity to finish with more and possibly force overtime, but he missed three free throws that would have tied the game. Given the competitor that Edwards is, he likely has been looking forward at his next chance at the Thunder.
Additionally, Edwards has scored 30 points in two of his last three games. Yes, it helps that that those games were against the Wizards and Spurs. However, Edwards has hit this line in five of his last 10 games. He also was hooked on 27 in another game in that stretch.
Tonight, Edwards will have a rest advantage in this matchup. Oklahoma City had the benefit of an early tip yesterday, but it still had to travel back to Oklahoma City for the second end of the back-to-back. The Thunder have a top 10 defense, but tired legs may lead to the defense lacking in this spot. They are also coming off a game in which they allowed 120 points to the Pistons.
Oklahoma City is still a 2.5 point favorite at home and Edwards will likely have to match Gilgeous-Alexander to get his team the win. To do so, he will likely need to score at least 28 points.
Pick: Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points (-113)
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Over the last two months, Domantas Sabonis is averaging 13.2 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game. That coincides with the 27-game double-double streak that he is bringing into tonight's game. He has 11 triple-doubles in that stretch as well. As a result, he has 12 now and has closed the gap on Nikola Jokic, who leads the league with 13 triple-doubles.
One of those triple-doubles came in his last game against Memphis. In that game, he nearly cleared this line with just rebounds, finishing with 21 on the night in addition to 12 assists. I don't expect another 21-rebound performance, but I would also not be surprised if he came close again. Memphis is 27th in rebounds allowed per game and 24th in rebounds allowed to centers. It has allowed 10 or more rebounds to five centers over their past four games.
However, I like this play because Sabonis can get it done in multiple ways. Given his averages and the fact he is a center, you'd expect that he would have more rebounds than assists most nights. In Thursday's game against the Warriors, he had eight rebounds and 13 assists. In that game, there was 267 points, so rebounds were not as readily available and yet he still missed by the hook. With 10 rebounds like he normally gets, Sabonis has 23 rebounds and assists in that game.
He has hit 23 rebounds and assists in three of his last six games and finished with 21 in two others. Sabonis cleared this line by over 10 in the last matchup and he is in the middle of a dominant run right now. Even with regression, Sabonis can get 23-25 rebounds and assists and be comfortably over this line.
Pick: Domantas Sabonis Over 21.5 Rebounds + Assists (-110)
Another player that has been filling up the stat sheet is Vince Williams Jr. We cashed on his points and rebounds last Wednesday in Miami. However, he did most of the work with his scoring with 25 points in that game. The books still have not adjusted his line much to his usage recently, so I am going back to him tonight.
Williams Jr. has now scored in double-figures in eight consecutive games. In that span, he is averaging 17.3 points per game and cleared this line in six of those games. In addition to the Heat game, he also scored 24 points against the Warriors on Martin Luther King Day and 20 against Indiana on Saturday. His 3-point shooting has paved the way.
This month, he is shooting 46.9% from 3-point range on 5.3 attempts per game. You may also be interested in his made 3-pointers line, which is 1.5 tonight, but a bit juiced in the neighborhood of -155 to -160 depending on the book. The Kings present a great matchup for his long range shooting as they are 24th in made 3-pointers allowed per game and 29th in 3-point percentage defense.
However, Williams Jr. is attempting over four field goal attempts inside the arc during this stretch and over three free throws per game. That has led to an additional seven points per game. Seven points inside the arc and two three-pointers gets us to 13 and over this line. If he does have another hot shooting night, he will offer value again. You can take him to score 18 at +285 on DraftKings and 20 at +600 on FanDuel.
Pick: Vince Williams Jr. Over 12.5 Points (+100)
