We began the week with a split and go again tonight with a five-game slate. The first game of the night has the highest total on the board in Indiana where the Pacers will be hosting the Pacers. Aaron Gordon will be looking for another 20-point game against the Pacers.
Meanwhile, the highest spread on the board is in Oklahoma City as the Thunder are 14-point favorites over the Trail Blazers. It's no surprise considering that the Thunder won by 63 points in the last meeting. Despite the blowout potential, there is still value on Jalen Williams.
It's "Rivals Week" in the NBA and the last game of the night takes us to the Crypto Center for the Battle of Los Angeles. The Clippers had won 11 straight meetings, but the Lakers have won the first two meetings this season. Without LeBron James tonight, Paul George will look to help the Clippers start a new streak.
Aaron Gordon has scored just 13 points combined in his last two games. However, in the seven games prior, he scored 15 points or more in five of them. One of those games came against the Indiana Pacers and he scored 20 points. He has hit this line in each of his last three games against the Pacers, scoring 18, 28, and 20 points.
This season, Indiana is providing the league's best matchup against power forwards. Per FantasyPros, it is allowing the most points per game to power forwards. Indiana just traded for Pascal Siakam, partially to fill its void at the four spot. However, in his first two games with Indiana, the Pacers gave up 37 points to Jerami Grant and 40 points to Kevin Durant.
Now, Gordon is not the scorer that Durant is, who just went for 40 points again last night. However, 15-20 points is in the sweet spot for Gordon. He is the ideal four to playing next to Nikola Jokic and he benefits from many passes from Jokic off cuts and as a lob threat. In what should be a high-scoring game, another Jokic triple-double could be in the cards and Gordon would be a beneficiary of a few of those assists.
Additionally, Michael Porter Jr. is battling an illness. Porter Jr. and Gordon flip-flop being the third scorer behind Jokic and Jamal Murray on certain nights it seems. Porter Jr. is still probable, but if he is off tonight, Gordon will have to step up even more. If Gordon rises to the challenge, I also like him for 20 points at +270 on FanDuel.
As a team, the Thunder rebounds as a committee. However, when you think about backing one of their perimeter players for a rebounds + assists combo, you'll probably likely think of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Josh Giddey first. We've backed Gilgeous-Alexander's RA and cashed multiple times this season. Meanwhile, Giddey has been a triple-double threat over the past few seasons.
However, Jalen Williams has been on a torrid pace as well. Williams has had nine rebounds and assists combined in eight of his past 10 games. The two games in which he did not clear this line came against Orlando and Minnesota, who both have a lot of size and have top-10 defenses. Yet, he missed by the hook in both of those games.
Williams has also hit this line in four of his past five games against Portland, averaging 9.2 rebounds + assists in those games. That includes the aforementioned blowout 12 days ago in which he had seven rebounds and four assists. It would not surprise me if that was flipped that today. Portland is 23rd in defensive rating and 25th in assists allowed.
However, it is also 24th in rebounds allowed. Williams has had five rebounds or more in six of his past 10 games and four assists or more in eight of his last 10 games. Between the two categories, I like his chances of reaching nine tonight. If this line moves to 9.5 by the time by tip, it also is playable there as Williams is still hitting at a 60% clip both recently and against Portland.
The Clippers have vaulted up to the fourth seed in the West as they have won eight of their last 10 games. In that span, Paul George has scored 20 points in eight of those games and is averaging 25.9 points per game. He has scored 25 points in four of his past six games. That includes 37 points against Memphis and 38 points against Oklahoma City.
The latter game is also a national televised game like tonight's game against the Lakers, who George loves facing. George has scored 25 points in three of his last five games against the Lakers. He scored 35 points earlier this season against the Lakers before fouling out. In that game, George knocked down six 3s and he has hit at least three in his last three against the Lakers.
The Lakers allow the most 3s (14.3) per game, which sets up well for George. He is shooting a career-high 41.8% from 3 on 8.6 attempts per game. He has made four 3s in eight of his last 10 games as well, hitting both off the dribble and on assists from James Harden and Russell Westbrook. If he knocks down four threes tonight, it will be put him halfway towards this line.
George is also averaging 18 field goal attempts per game and four free throw attempts per game. He should have the volume to get 25 points again. If he goes off against the Lakers once again, you can back him for 30 points at +240 and 35 points at +700 on FanDuel.
