The last Saturday of March is a light 3-game NBA slate, but I've still locked in three player prop picks for two of today's matchups — two for Celtics vs. Pelicans, and one for Bucks vs. Hawks.
Of the six teams who will be active today, only the Orlando Magic enter their game on the second leg of a back to back set. The only schedule quirk that I notice before capping individual game props is the early start time of the Boston vs. New Orleans game.
Sometimes the early starts lead to unders and less scoring in the NBA, we can apply this general concept to one specific line. Let's dive into my top three NBA player props for Saturday, March 30.
NBA Player Props for Saturday, March 30
There is a strong basketball angle to understand this under, and the early start time of the game is simply a boost. Zion is going to face a defense that prioritizes stopping the point of attack and collapsing to the pressure and around the rim.
Zion will have plenty of different looks thrown at him, and will face bigs who have had test after test against Giannis Antetokounmpo.
I would not be surprised to see the Celtics deploy the wall approach to guarding Zion, something they are prepping for the Greek Freak in the playoffs.
Coach Mazzulla said recently they are trying things for inevitable playoff situations, and this situation presents that option.
Pick: Zion Williamson Under 26.5 Points (-115)
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Without Brandon Ingram in the lineup for the Pelicans, there have been a few noticeable changes. The first is more playing time for the shooters of Trey Murphy and Herb Jones.
Now they can both enter the starting lineup and maintain spacing for the Pelicans.
Second is CJ becomes the lead point of attack creator. He has over 4.5 assist in four consecutive games, and he will be asked to create for others.
Third, is when they play big, CJ runs the point guard and pick and roll sets with Jonas Valanciunas.
If the big man is setting good screens, CJ will have assist opportunities coming around the screen time and time again.
Pick: CJ McCollum Over 4.5 Assists (-135)
Back to the well with BogBogs points prop.
I was on this both games against Boston and will be back on it against Milwaukee.
Without Trae Young, Bog moves into the starting lineup and becomes the second creator and scorer the Hawks rely on.
Bogdanovic still had a great game despite shooting struggles against Boston, so I expect better shooter and also less usage for Dejounte Murray.
If Bogdanovic co-pilot is not taking 44 shots and doing his best Kobe Bryant impersonation, then Bogdan should have all the looks he needs to score 20+ against a weak perimeter defense.
Let's not forget the slight revenge factor in Boggie almost signing with the Bucks before the league declared illegal tampering.
I'm sure he always wants to remind them what they missed out on.
Pick: Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 18.5 Points (-118)
