NBA Player Props Today | Monday, Jan. 15
It's Martin Luther King Day and in his birthplace of Atlanta, the Hawks will be hosting the Spurs. However, the hometown Hawks have lost two straight and seven of their last 10 games. Today, they will have to deal with Victor Wembanyama and the rookie phenom could be in for a big day.
In the nightcap, the Thunder will be in Los Angeles to take on the Lakers. MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been on a tear of late and he could be in for another big game against the Lakers.
However, we will begin in the nation's capital with Jalen Duren and the Pistons taking on the Wizards. Let's dive into my NBA player props for Monday, January 15.
This season, backing Jalen Duren has been very profitable for us, most recently when he had a double-double against the Jazz. Duren has now had a double-double in eight of his past 10 games, so there is not much value there anymore. However, in six of those games, he pulled down 12 rebounds. Tonight, he gets a great matchup against the Wizards, a team that he's already had success against.
The Wizards are allowing nearly 50 rebounds per game, which is the most in the league. They are also allowing 18.7 rebounds per game to centers, also most in the league. Duren had 14 rebounds in his first meeting against the Wizards back in November.
Duren is seventh in the league at 11.3 rebounds per game. Overnight, his line moved to 12.5 rebounds, which he could still clear as he has shown in this matchup. However, I am taking him over 11.5 at an adjusted line to improve the hit rate. Duren has recorded 12 rebounds in 58% of his games, but 13 rebounds in just 36% of his games this season.
As you see, one rebound makes a big difference. However, over his past 15 games, Duren is averaging 18.7 rebounding chances per game and collecting 62.6% of them, per NBAStats. If Duren hits that rate again today, he will pull down 12 rebounds once again.
Pick: Jalen Duren Over 11.5 Rebounds (-140)
In the last two games, the Hawks have allowed 126 points to the Pacers without Tyrese Haliburton and 127 points to the Wizards. Like the Wizards, the Spurs have just seven wins this season. However, they have scored 115 points or more in each of their last five games. Leading the way has been their No. 1 overall draft pick Victor Wembanyama.
The rookie standout sat out Saturday's game against the Bulls, but in his last seven games, he has scored 20 points in six of them. Wembanyama is averaging 23.4 points per game in that span. Given his reputation, he perhaps has not shot the long ball as well as expected at 29.4% on the year. However, he has knocked down two three-pointers in all six games that he scored 20 points during this stretch.
However, he has also been a factor on the glass. He has pulled down nine rebounds in five of his last 10 games, including 10 in each of the past three. He also has had seven rebounds or more in eight of his past 10 games. Today, he gets a great matchup against the Hawks, who are 29th in points allowed per game and 22nd in rebounds per game.
Now, Wembanyama is on a minutes limit as the Spurs are monitoring his ankle injury. However, that has not slowed his production. In his past seven games, he has had 30 points and rebounds four times, hitting at least 36 in all four games. In the other three games, he has had at least 27 points and rebounds combined, so even in limited minutes, he should be in the ballpark.
With his matchup against the Hawks, he may not need that long to collect 30 points and rebounds. On PointsBet, this line is up to 31.5 at similar odds, so we are getting a value at DraftKings.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)
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At this point, it is a safe bet to assume that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 30 points whether the game ends in a blowout or not. Since the start of last season, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 30 points in 74-of-107 games (69.4%) and in 28-of-37 games (76%) this season. However, when it comes to betting on his points props, the line matters a lot.
A few weeks ago, we narrowly cashed on his under at 34.5 points. Tonight at 31.5, the over is a buy. Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 32 points in 57% of his games this season. More recently, he has hit this line in seven of his past 10 games and he is averaging 33.1 points per game in that span. He was hooked on 31 in another game as well.
He has scored 33 and 34 points in two games against the Lakers this season and finished with 30 points in another meeting last season. That should not come as a surprise, considering that the Lakers are 29th in defending point guards, per Props.cash. Focusing on points specifically, they are allowing the 12th-most points to point guards at 25.2 per game.
Additionally, these teams have split the first two meetings, both in Oklahoma City. In Los Angeles tonight, the Lakers are a short home favorite with LeBron James back in the lineup. However, they have lost six of their last eight games, so they could use a win. As a result, the Lakers may make this game a battle, which means it may be tight in the fourth quarter. That bodes well for Gilgeous-Alexander in a matchup that has had over 240 points in each of the first two matchups.
