NBA Player Props | Saturday, Jan. 13
In the graph below, Tyler Schmidt has provided his top three NBA player props for tonight's seven-game slate using our prop model. The three plays feature Trae Young, Jalen Williams, and Lauri Markkanen who are all in fantastic spots on this Saturday night. Let's break it down and start the weekend off with a few winners.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:30 p.m. | |
| 8:00 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
A home matchup against the Wizards is exactly what the doctor ordered for Trae Young and the Hawks after losing to the Pacers last night 126-108 without Tyrese Haliburton. Young has had a tough start to the new year averaging just 21.8 points and 8.6 assists per game, while shooting 34.4% from the field and 20.9% from behind the arc. However, tonight is a perfect get-right spot. The Hawks are seven-point home favorites, implied for 127.5 points.
Playing against the Wizards presents the optimal game environment. They lead the league in pace and rank dead last in defensive rating at 121.6. The Wizards are allowing a league-high 125.9 points and 30.6 assists per game. With a game total of 249.5 points, expect a fast-paced setting with a ton of opportunities for Young to showcase his skillset.
The Hawks are looking for the season sweep over the Wizards after winning each of their previous three matchups. Young has had his way in this matchup averaging 27.9 points and 11 assists per game, while shooting 50% from the field and 52.6% from long distance. Young has recorded double-digit assists in all three of his meetings against the Wizards this season. Reaching 11 assists is more achievable against the Wizards than any other team in the league.
Our prop model has Young projected for 12.7 assists tonight with his best odds to hit the over on DraftKings at -115. Young has also captured 11 or more assists in eight of his last 12 games. Everything is setting up for the Hawks to get back on track and for Young to have another big performance scoring and dishing out dimes.
Pick: Trae Young Over 10.5 Assists (-115)
Currently sitting a half-game back of the Timberwolves for the top seed in the Western Conference, the Thunder have won 11 of their last 14 games. They are 11.5-point home favorites against the Magic who have struggled recently after their hot start. The Magic still rank third in defensive rating this season, but this is an exploitable matchup.
In his second year in the league, Thunder forward Jalen Williams has been a key factor in the team's success. He ranks second on the team in scoring behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 18.3 points per game. Williams is shooting an impressive 55% from the field and 45% from downtown this season. He has kept his hot shooting recently, but also added peripheral stats. In his last four games, Williams is averaging 7.8 assists and 7.0 rebounds per game.
The Magic are dealing with a few injuries to their frontcourt. Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. are both out for tonight's game, which will make rebounds more accessible for Williams. Outside of Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams has been next on the totem pole for the Thunder offense. He has recorded a 23% usage rate in his last four games.
Williams to capture 10 total rebounds and assists tonight is coming with some juice — oozing with value on the over. DraftKings is offering +110 for Williams to clear this number. Our prop model has Williams projected for 11.8 rebounds and assists, which is well over this prop line. He has recorded 10 or more rebounds and assists in each of his last four games with two double-doubles. The value is undeniable due to how well Williams has played recently.
Pick: Jalen Williams Over 9.5 REB + AST (+110)
Last but not least, another player prop that is coming in with juiced odds is Lauri Markkanen over 8.5 rebounds. The Jazz have won four-straight games and 10 of their last 12 games in large part due to Markkanen's excellence. Despite having a 13-5 home record, the Jazz are 1.5-point underdogs against the Lakers who are 6-13 on the road this year.
In his last four games, Markkanen is averaging a massive double-double with 25.5 points and 12 rebounds per game. He has captured nine or more rebounds in each of those four games, which is what will be needed to reach his over 8.5 rebounds prop. Our prop model has Markkanen projected for exactly 10 rebounds against the Lakers frontcourt.
Even though Anthony Davis is pulling down 12 rebounds per night, the Lakers rank 20th in rebounding percentage at 49.9%. They are allowing 44.3 rebounds per game this season, which is tied for the ninth-highest in the league. With a healthy 238.5-point total, there will be a plethora of opportunities for Markkanen to rack up rebounds tonight.
Over the last four games, Markkanen leads the Jazz with 16.3 rebound chances per game. The next closest is starting center Walker Kessler with 11.8 per game. Based on how many rebounds and rebound chances that Markkanen has accumulated recently, betting his over in that department at plus-money is a great value. Shop around for the best value, but DraftKings is offering the best odds at the moment at +105. This is a superb spot for Markkanen.
