For my NBA player props on Friday, I have my eye on a pair of big men who could be in for big nights … if they play.
Anthony Davis (left knee hyperextension; questionable) has dominated the Pacers in two meetings this season. His availability could be key as the surging Lakers go for their sixth straight win.
Jusuf Nurkic (right ankle sprain; questionable) and the Suns are in Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder. They likely will not have to deal with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (right quad contusion; doubtful). That may contribute to Nurkic having another big on the glass in this matchup.
With the advent of the NBA In-Season Tournament, the Lakers and Pacers are playing for a third time this season after meeting in the Championship Game. In that game, Davis had 41 points and 20 rebounds.
Unfortunately for Davis, that monster performance does not help his season stats as it was not a regular season game, but his props were still available. He faced Indiana again on Sunday and dominated with 36 points and 16 rebounds.
Including the In-Season Tournament, Davis is averaging 36 points and 16.7 rebounds in his last three games against Indiana. It is a great matchup for Davis because Indiana allows the most points in the paint. The Pacers are 29th in scoring defense overall and 25th in defensive rating. They are 17th in rebounds allowed to centers as well, allowing 14.9 per game.
Davis has hit this line in four of his last seven games, including when he played just the first quarter against the Warriors before leaving with an eye injury. Remove that game and he is averaging 45.3 points and rebounds over his last six full games.
Pick: Anthony Davis Over 39.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)
On Wednesday, Oklahoma City scored 126 points in an overtime defeat but it started slow with just 17 in the first quarter. Another slow start would be great for us considering that Jusuf Nurkic typically plays most of the first quarter.
In the last Suns-Thunder meeting on March 3, Oklahoma City scored 28 points in the first quarter. That did stop Nurkic from pulling down 12 rebounds in the first quarter.
Nurkic's rebounds line is 10.5 on FanDuel and 11.5 on DraftKings, which means he cleared both in the first quarter of the last game. He ultimately finished with 31 rebounds, an absurd number well above what we need tonight.
That being said, Nurkic only had eight rebounds in the first game. He also has not reached 11 rebounds in his last three games, though he was close with 10 rebounds in two of them and nine in the other.
Oklahoma City is 24th in rebounds allowed and 26th in rebounds allowed to centers. Nurkic is averaging 14.1 rebounds over his last 15 games and cleared this line in nine of them. While his last game against the Thunder helped that average, he also had three 20-rebound performances plus another 15-rebound game in that span.
For Nurkic to have another game like that, we will need him on the floor. He has only played 41 minutes over his last two games, which contributed to him going under in those games. He played 32 minutes in the last game against Oklahoma City. When Nurkic plays at least 25 minutes, he has hit this number in 60% of his games.
Additionally, you can back him for 14 rebounds at +250 and 16 rebounds at +550 on FanDuel.
