Tonight, we have a pair of MVP candidates, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose teams are coming off losses. The Bucks went 1-3 on their road trip, capped off by a blowout loss in Sacramento. Tonight, they will host the 76ers and Giannis Antetokounmpo will look to lead the way, perhaps as a facilitator tonight.
The Thunder saw their nine-game home winning streak come to an end with a loss to the Pacers. Tonight, Gilgeous-Alexander may be able to take advantage of a Mavericks playing on the second night of the back-to-back.
The Knicks are starting to get some reinforcements, getting OG Anunoby back in the lineup in Tuesday's win over the 76ers. However, his return did not stop Josh Hart from filling up the stat sheet. Tonight, Hart may have another strong game against one of his former teams.
NBA Player Props Today (March 14)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging seven assists over his last 10 games. Four times in that stretch, he has had nine assists or more. He also was hooked on six twice in that span, one of them being a blowout. One of the nine-assist games in that stretch came against the 76ers, which is also the lone meeting between these teams since Doc Rivers took over in Milwaukee.
In that game, the Bucks scored 119 points and shot 54% from the field. Antetokounmpo scored 30 points himself in that game and I would expect Philadelphia to have a hard time stopping him tonight without Joel Embiid. Philadelphia ranks 24th in defensive rating over its last 15 games.
Antetokounmpo's points line is 32.5 tonight and while he may get there, he also may draw a lot of double teams because of the lack of size that Philadelphia is playing with right now. Several of his assists in the last meeting came when he kicked it out for his teammates to knock down 3s and Milwaukee made 18 as a team in that game.
Additionally, if tonight's game gets out of hand, it may be easier for him to reach seven assists than score 33 points.
Though the Bucks did win the last meeting by 21 points, Antetokounmpo played 36 minutes. If the Sixers hang around just long enough, Antetokounmpo may have another game with 10 assists. He is +165 for eight assists, +550 for 10 assists, and +700 for a triple-double on FanDuel. He has three games with 10 assists in his past 10 and has eight triple-doubles this season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 30 points again on Tuesday, this time cutting it close with a layup with nine seconds left for the final points in the game. It was the eighth time in the last 10 games that Gilgeous-Alexander has scored at least 30 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander has scored at least 30 points in 48-of-64 (75%) games this season. Whether he goes over his points prop or not really depends on where the line is set. At FanDuel, this line is 31.5 and he has scored 32 points in half of his games this season. DraftKings has this line at 30.5, which he has hit in 67% of his games this season.
Just a one point difference increases his hit rate by 17%, but it also makes a bit of sense considering he is 31.1 points per game this season. Against the Mavericks, Gilgeous-Alexander may be able to clear this line at both books.
Dallas is 21st in defensive rating this season and tonight it will be traveling to Oklahoma City for a back-to-back. Gilgeous-Alexander has hit his line regularly against the Mavericks, putting up totals of 33, 38 and 45. He did not hit it in the last meeting as he scored 25 points, but he did not play in the fourth quarter after the Mavericks pulled away for 35-point victory.
Coming off a loss on Tuesday, I expect Gilgeous-Alexander to be motivated tonight. Oklahoma City may even be able to return the favor tonight. Luka Doncic left last night's game early and did not return. Tonight's spread (currently -10 to -10.5) looks like he will not play.
If the game does get out of hand, Dallas will still struggle to stop Gilgeous-Alexander. I like him to at least hit his scoring average whether he plays three quarters or not.
Portland also played last night, pulling out a 106-102 victory over the Hawks. That game finished with 208 points and the total for tonight's game has dropped from 210 to 205 points.
A low total correlates to more rebound chances, especially when you factor in these offenses. The Knicks are 25th in field goal percentage while the Trail Blazers are 29th. The Trail Blazers are also 28th in offensive rating and I expect them to struggle against this Knicks' defense with OG Anunoby back in the lineup.
If rebounds up for grabs, it will likely be Josh Hart coming down with them. He is averaging 10.9 rebounds over his last 15 games and 12 rebounds over his last 10 games. He has pulled down 18 rebounds in three of his past six games. It would not surprise me if he hit this line with just rebounds, but in case he does not, he has been very generous of late as well.
Hart is averaging 5.8 assists per game over his last 15 games. He has had five assists in 1o of those games and finished with in two others. In Tuesday's game with Anunoby and also Jalen Brunson back, Hart had 10 assists to go with his 19 rebounds. Hart has four triple-doubles in his last 18 games and he is +1900 on DraftKings to get another tonight.
Hart may have an extra incentive tonight going against Portland, which traded him to the Knicks last season. He already hit this line against the Trail Blazers last season with nine rebounds and eight assists in 37 minutes. He has played 39 minutes in each of his last 10 games and had 15 rebounds and assists combined in eight of them.
He will go over again tonight with at least 10 rebounds and five assists tonight.
