NBA Player Props | Saturday, Jan. 20
In the graph below, Tyler Schmidt has provided his top three NBA player props for tonight's seven-game slate using our prop model. The three plays feature Jordan Poole, John Collins, and Mike Conley who are all graded out well in our model on this Saturday night. Let's break it down and start the weekend off with a few winners.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:00 p.m. | |
| 8:00 p.m. | |
| 8:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
It has been a difficult road for Wizards' fans with their team clinching a sub-50 win record for the 45th straight season. They may have a tough time getting to double-digit wins at this rate with their 7-33 record. However, the Wizards have a chance to add to their win total tonight. They are 2.5-point home favorites against the Spurs.
In his first year with the Wizards, Jordan Poole has been extremely inconsistent. He ranks second on the team in scoring at 17.1 points per game, but is shooting 41.5% from the field and 31.2% from behind the arc. His peripherals have also dipped to only 3.6 assists and 2.4 rebounds per game this season. Poole's 24.5 points and rebounds prop is lofty for his projected output. Our prop model has Poole projected to record 19.5 points and rebounds in this spot.
The Spurs have been a completely different team with Victor Wembanyama in the lineup, especially defensively. Their defensive rating is 117.6 with the No. 1 overall pick compared to 127 without him. Wembanyama's ability to protect the rim will make Poole and the rest of the Wizards, perimeter shooters tonight. He leads the league with 3.1 blocks per game. Poole has gone under this 24.5 points and rebounds prop line in nine of his last 11 games played.
Being projected to come in under this prop total by five points and rebounds makes this an incredible value on DraftKings at -125. This line may drop to 23.5 points and rebounds, but I would take that as well. Poole has been scoring the ball better as of late, but he has plenty of games with no rebounds. Take his under tonight.
Pick: Jordan Poole Under 24.5 PTS + REB (-125)
After a relatively slow start to the season, the Jazz have won 12 of their last 15 games. Their only losses during that stretch have come against the Thunder, Celtics, and Pelicans who have a combined 85-41 record. The Jazz are 2.5-point road underdogs against the Rockets who have a 15-6 home record. However, this game has a point total of 234.5.
In what is expected to be an up-tempo game environment, there will be plenty of possessions for both teams. That bodes well for this John Collins over 5.5 rebounds prop. Collins has recorded six or more rebounds in four out of his last five games. During the month of January, Collins has seen a decrease in his playing time, but his efficiency has skyrocketed. Collins is averaging 15.1 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, while shooting 61% from the field.
Our prop model has Collins projected to pull down exactly eight rebounds in this matchup against the Rockets. That is well over his prop line, which is providing a ton of value. With Walker Kessler, Lauri Markkanen and Collins in the Jazz frontcourt, they rank second in the league in rebounding percentage at 52.9%. For reference, the Rockets rank 13th and are allowing 33.8 defensive rebounds per game, which is the ninth-highest total in the league this season.
FanDuel currently has the best odds on Collins' over rebounds prop at -115. This is a bet that I would feel comfortable climbing the ladder on. Collins has two games with double-digit rebounds in his last eight and is +800 to record a double-double tonight. Expect Collins to feast on the glass in a positive matchup against the Rockets.
Pick: John Collins Over 5.5 Rebounds (-115)
Last but not least, the game of the night features the top two teams in the Western Conference. The Timberwolves are hosting the Thunder as 3.5-point home favorites. This will be their third meeting of the year with both teams winning on their home court thus far. Grab your popcorn. These two exciting teams will put on a show tonight.
While Anthony Edwards and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the stars of the show, veteran point guard Mike Conley plays a key role. In his second year with the Timberwolves, Conley is averaging 11.1 points and 6.5 assists per game, while shooting a career-high 45.2% from downtown. During the Timberwolves five-game winning streak, Conley has three games with double-digit assists and has made at least two 3-pointers in every game over that time.
In this matchup, our prop model has Conley projected 19.5 points and assists, which is three more than his prop line. In his two previous games against the Thunder, Conley is averaging 13 points and six assists per game while shooting 47.1% from long distance. The Thunder will look to increase the tempo of this game with the sixth-highest pace in the league, which will provide more opportunities for Conley in transition.
Given how well Conley has played lately, this prop line is simply too low. He has captured 17 or more points and assists in three of his last five games, while averaging 10 points and 8.4 assists per game during that time. The best value on this prop is on FanDuel at -115, but DraftKings has this line at 17.5 for -105. I would be fine with either. Conley is in a fantastic spot and will continue to play an important role in this offense.
