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NBA Player Prop Picks Tonight | Tobias Harris, Norman Powell
The tough sledding for the Philadelphia 76ers continues tonight. Still without their superstar, Joel Embiid, the 76ers will face off against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
In Embiid’s absence, Tobias Harris has stayed under this combined line in eight of 16 games. While a hit rate of 50% isn’t exactly inspiring, tonight’s matchup against the Cavaliers is anything but ideal.
As a team, Cleveland owns the league’s third-best defensive rating this season, and allow the second-fewest points and assists.
Individually, Harris will face the likes of Evan Mobley, Isaac Okoro, Dean Wade and Max Strus, who all rank in the top 12% of defensive estimated plus/minus (per Dunks and Threes). Moreover, the Cavaliers have allowed the third-fewest points, rebounds and assists to opposing power forwards this season.
Even without Embiid, I don’t see this as a spot where Harris will exceed his expected production. I have him projected at 24 PRA, and would play this line down to Under 26.5.
Pick: Tobias Harris Under 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+100) | Play to 26.5
Powell has been a steadying influence for the Clippers off the bench this season. The sharpshooter is averaging 13.5 points per game and has cleared this line in 25 of his last 33 contests.
Tonight should serve as a sneaky solid opportunity for Powell to not only see some extra run, but to cash in on a plus matchup.
Despite turning over their rotation almost completely, the Grizzlies have struggled against spot-up shooters all season, ranking in the bottom nine of both shot frequency and points allowed to the play type. Powell scores 40% of his points via spot-up shooting.
Additionally, with the Clippers on a back-to-back against an inferior opponent, the opportunity for the team to manage both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George’s minutes could present itself. Both of the All-Stars have missed time in recent weeks because of various injuries.
Tonight, I have Powell scoring closer to 14 points.
Pick: Norman Powell Over 12.5 Points (-125; Play to -135)
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