Prop Bet Guy will be contributing to Action Network's NBA coverage this season, also tracking his bets in the Action Network app. Follow him on Twitter.
NBA Player Prop Pick Tonight | Devin Vassell Bet
The directive for the Spurs this season is simple: Figure out how to build a team around Victor Wembanyama.
One of the non-Wemby bright spots this season has been Devin Vassell. However, despite his recent hot streak, I’m looking to fade the Florida State product on his points line tonight.
Vassell’s primary means of scoring is as a spot-up shooter. The Spurs' opponent tonight, the Pacers, are the NBA’s premier defense against spot-up shooting this season, allowing the fewest points per game to the play type on the lowest frequency.
Against teams in the top 15 against spot-up shooters this season, Vassell has stayed under this line in 20 of 26 games. While he is also effective out of the pick and roll, Vassell only averaged 10.4 drives per game in February — a mark that will make it difficult for him to get the requisite volume to clear this point total.
Plus, the sharp-shooter figures to draw either Andrew Nembhard or Aaron Nesmith as his primary matchup. Nembhard and Nesmith rank in the 85th and 72nd percentile, respectively, of defensive estimated plus/minus, per Dunks and Threes.
Tonight, I have Vassell projected at 20 points, and would play this line down to Under 21.5.
Pick: Devin Vassell Under 22.5 Points (-108) | Play to 21.5 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Planning on tailing PropBetGuy and fading Vassell tonight? Register with Action Network's DraftKings promo code today for a sign-up offer.
