NBA Player Prop Picks for Saturday, Dec. 2
In the table below, you'll find each of Tyler Schmidt's top three NBA player prop picks for Saturday, December 2 including bets for Khris Middleton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Alperen Sengun.
With no NBA games on the docket for tomorrow, we have to get our player prop exposure tonight. This "Dropping-Dimes" Parlay features over assist props for three players, and if you parlay these props together, the current payout is +460 at DraftKings.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8:00 p.m. | |
| 9:00 p.m. | |
| 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Hawks vs. Bucks
Khris Middleton
Over 3.5 Assists (-120)
Winners in eight of their last 10 games, the Milwaukee Bucks will look to stay hot tonight against the Atlanta Hawks. The Bucks' are 6.5-point home favorites, implied for 128.5 points. With a slate-high 251.5-point game total that keeps rising, there is a plethora of player props to choose from in this track meet game environment.
In our prop model, Khris Middelton over 3.5 assists is one of the best available props on the board. We have Middleton projected for 4.9 assists, which is well over his prop line. He has captured four or more assists in eight of his 13 games. Middleton currently ranks third on the Bucks this season with 5.8 potential assists per game.
He may only be projected for 25 minutes, but Middleton can still reach this over in an elite matchup. Both the Bucks and Hawks rank in the top five for pace and offensive rating. Middleton will have plenty of opportunities to reach four assists with how many points will be scored tonight. The Hawks have allowed 28.5 assists per game, which is the third-highest mark in the league. They also rank 26th in defensive rating, allowing 122.3 points per game.
There are several player props that look juicy in this high-paced game environment, but none look better than Middleton over 3.5 assists. Shop around for the best odds, but DraftKings has his over posted right now at -120. The veteran small forward has posted five or more assists in three of his last five games, and will have a great chance to get near that total again tonight against a weak Hawks perimeter defense.
Pick: Khris Middleton Over 3.5 Assists (-120)
Thunder vs. Mavericks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Over 5.5 Assists (-150)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has picked up right where he left off last season averaging over 30 points per game, while shooting an impressive 54.1% from the field. Gilgeous-Alexander has also averaged a career-high in both rebounds and assists with 6.1 per game. Over his last four games, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 34 points and 7.0 assists per game. The electric point guard has a 33% usage rate, which is the fifth-highest in the entire league.
Behind Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder are off to a 12-6 start and have won seven of their last nine games. They are 4.5-point road favorites against the Mavericks tonight, implied for 119.75 points. The Mavericks are playing on a back-to-back after losing to the 5-13 Memphis Grizzlies last night by 14 points at home.
Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr. missed last game and Kyrie Irving is questionable to play on this back-to-back. Regardless of who suits up for the Mavericks, this is a great matchup for Gilgeous-Alexander. The Mavericks are playing at a much faster pace this season and their defense is suffering because of it. They rank 23rd in defensive rating and have allowed 27.9 assists per game, which is the fifth-highest in the league.
Our prop model has Gilgeous-Alexander projected for 6.9 assists in this matchup. There are a few sportsbooks who have this line at 6.5 with juice to the over. I would consider Gilgeous-Alexander's over at 6.5 assists at plus-money if you are not doing the dropping-dimes parlay on DraftKings.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 Assists (-150)
Rockets vs. Lakers
Alperen Sengun
Over 4.5 Assists (-120)
Alperen Sengun has turned into one of the best all-around big men in just his third season in the league. "Baby Jokic" is averaging a career-high 21.0 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game this season, while shooting 56.3% from the field. Sengun also has the second-highest usage rate on the team with a career-high 27.2% per game.
The Rockets are the only team in the league who still haven't won a road game. Despite an 0-7 road record, the Rockets are only 4.5-point road underdogs against the Lakers who are an impressive 7-2 at home this season. This game has a 222.5-point total with the Rockets and Lakers splitting their first two meetings.
Behind teammate Fred VanVleet, Sengun is second on the Rockets with 8.4 potential assists per game. He has captured five or more assists in four of his last six games. Most of his production comes from scoring and rebounding the ball, but in his first two matchups against the Lakers, Sengun recorded nine total assists.
Our prop model has Sengun projected for his average of 5.6 assists tonight. The Lakers allow 26.9 assists per game this season, which is tied for the ninth-highest in the league. Despite having Anthony Davis and LeBron James, the Lakers have an average defensive unit, which makes this an exploitable matchup for Sengun.
