NBA Player Prop Pick
Below you'll find Prop Bomb's top NBA player prop pick from Thunder vs. Kings on Thursday, December 14 targeting Kings guard De'Aaron Fox.
| Prop | De'Aaron Fox Under 30.5 Points (-127) |
| Matchup | Thunder vs. Kings |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | Caesars |
After losing to the Clippers by 20 points, many expect the Kings and De’Aaron Fox to bounce back against the Thunder at home. However, I am keyed in on fading Fox’s points total prop tonight.
The crafty guard is averaging 29.5 points per game this season, going under in 11 of 17 games, but removing the four in-season tournament games averaging 39.5 minutes per game, he’s sitting at 27.9 points per game.
Known by many as a ball-handling driver, Fox collects 14.4 points (second-highest in the league) through drives and ranks in the 93rd percentile from the pick-and-roll play type.
Tonight’s matchup does not fare well for his shot diet. The Thunder are a brutal matchup for Fox, knowing how dominant they’ve been defensively versus these play styles.
Not only are they permitting the fewest points in the paint amongst all teams, but they are also limiting opposing players to shoot a league-low 36.4 effective field goal percentage via the mid-range – an area Fox would look to exploit if he can’t get to the rim.
Between the duo of top 10 percentile defenders in Shai-Gilgeous Alexander (his primary defender) and Chet Holmgren on drives, combined with the strong on-ball defense of Lu Dort and Cason Wallace, the Thunder can throw a slew of plus-rated defenders toward Fox.
Overall, it’s a tough matchup for Fox, who will be heavily contested all game and given little space to work with his opportunities. Given these circumstances, I have difficulty seeing Fox surpassing his 30.5 points prop and would even play it at 29.5 if the number goes down.
Pick: De'Aaron Fox Under 30.5 Points (-127)
