NBA Player Prop & Pick
Spencer Dinwiddie, Under 19.5 Points
| Odds | Under 19.5 Points (-125) |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Books Available | DraftKings |
The dust has settled after an active NBA trade deadline and many teams are now looking to adjust to their new personnel. After trading away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving for a combined haul of four new rotation players (and a slew of draft picks), no team looks more different than the Brooklyn Nets.
One of the players sent to the Nets in the Irving trade point guard Spencer Dinwiddie. Making his return to Brooklyn, Dinwiddie slots in as the starting point guard. However, with a deep rotation and offensive uncertainties, I’m looking to fade Dinwiddie’s points line tonight.
As mentioned already, the Nets’ rotation is massive. In Brooklyn’s first game with all their newly acquired players, Jacque Vaughn went 12 players deep with his substitutions. Dinwiddie saw 31 minutes of floor time and with Ben Simmons, Patty Mills, and Cam Thomas behind him, his minutes ceiling is a bit lower than the 37 minutes per game he was playing throughout January.
And without a true alpha on this team, production and usage will be spread around, and less predictable. Dinwiddie’s Usage Rating in his two games with the Nets (22% and 24%) is in line with his usage as a member of the Mavericks (22.5%).
In Dallas, Dinwiddie averaged 17 points 34 minutes per game. Tonight, he gets a tough matchup against the Knicks, and specifically Quentin Grimes. Over the past 30 games, the Knicks have kept opposing point guards to the 10th-fewest points per game. With a lower minutes ceiling and stagnant usage, I’m not seeing as much upside for Dinwiddie as this line suggests.
I’d play this line down to under 18.5 points.
Pick: Under 19.5 points (-125) — Bet to 18.5 points
