It's a huge Sunday in the NBA with wall-to-wall NBA Playoff coverage across two networks. The postseason action begins in New York with Cavaliers vs Knicks (1 p.m. ET) then heads to San Fransisco for Kings vs Warriors (3:30 p.m. ET) on ABC. In the night games, we get Celtics vs Hawks (7 p.m. ET) and Nuggets vs Timberwolves (9:30 p.m. ET) on TNT.
Action Network's crew has NBA picks including first- and second-half bets, player props and more for Sunday's four-game slate. Read on for their expert picks for today's matchups below.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks
Bryan Fonseca: I'm going back to ol' reliable tonight.
One day, Julius Randle is going to smash over this prop and make me look stupid for continuing to play it so damn often, but I will continue to do so until he gets over, which he has not done one time.
Again — this is not his series, and for the Knicks to win, it doesn't need to be.
Randle has finished with 19, 22, and 11 points in this series. He's shooting 18-of-55 from the field and 8-for-27 from beyond the arc. Sure, he may be due, but as long as Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are in front of him, I don't see it.
And even if he does it once, it may not again.
But hey, if he gets 23 on an efficient 9-of-18 from the field, including 2-of-6 from deep, and 3-of-4 on free throws, we'll take that, because, guess what? That's still under!
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks
Kenny Ducey: I wrote about this matchup in greater detail in Sunday’s betting guide (you can read that here), but the fact of the matter is New York's rebounding edge coming into the series seems to be a real one. The Cavaliers were bottom 10 in the league in the second half of the season and the Knicks ranking second. That gap was evident on Friday in Game 3, and while the shots weren't falling for the Knicks they were still able to score inside with relative ease.
With the better bench play from the Knicks, I wasn't very surprised to see them pull away in the second on Friday. That performance seemed more like ones we can expect from the Knicks, and even if the Cavaliers see some positive regression in the shooting department I'm not sure that is enough here for me to like Cleveland.
I see a beaten down Cavaliers team that will continue getting beaten on the road.
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors
Joe Dellera: I covered this matchup in greater detail (you can check that out here) in the Kings-Warriors betting guide. I think the Warriors found something in Game 3 on the offensive side of the ball without Draymond Green in the lineup. However, it seems untenable to leave either Green or Kevon Looney on the bench.
The issue is the lineups with both of them are scoring just 105.4 points per 100 possessions in this series, per Cleaning the Glass. The defensive numbers with both in (particularly Looney) have been excellent, but in a series against the regular season's best offense, the finding offensive consistency seems like a pressure point for the Warriors.
The Warriors have been an absolute wagon at home with a 34-8 record this season. However, the Kings are 25-17 on the road, both straight up and against the spread. It seems odd to consider the Warriors as taking a step back with Green returning to the lineup, but they'll be forced to readjust their offense and abandon something that was effective. I’ll take the Kings early here at +4.5.
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: The Celtics have been the far superior team all series, but they let one slip in Atlanta on Friday. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray combined for 57 points, lifting the Hawks to their first victory of the series.
But I believe it will be Atlanta's only win. They're just outmatched in this series. They have the rebounding edge, but that’s the only edge they have. The Hawks’ sole win took an unusually bad defensive performance from the Celtics (56% field goal percentage allowed) and an unusually dominant rebounding game, even for Atlanta (out-rebounded Boston 29-48).
Home teams have historically performed well in Game 3s down 0-2, as the Hawks were on Friday. But teams in the Celtics position for Game 4 have also found legitimate success.
According to BetLabs, since the 2004-05 season, playoff teams that were favored by four or more in the previous game but lost are 148-93-4 ATS (61.4%). Additionally, road favorites of -6 or more are 36-20-2 (64.3%).
The Celtics took their foot off the gas, but I expect them to return to their winning ways and pull off a cover in the process. I’d bet this to -6.5.
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Malik Smith: I made the case for a bet on the total in this matchup in the Game 4 betting guide, but I'm also interested in a second half bet on the Hawks.
As much as I think the Celtics are the better team here, the Hawks have fought hard in the second half of every game in this series. They've done it twice in this series and lost the second half of Game 2 by one point. (They've also trailed by double digits in two of those games, so winning the second half was necessary to make it a game at all.)
Boston should be able to get off to another hot start in Game 4 and force the Hawks to keep up after half time.
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Jim Turvey: I covered two bets that I liked in this matchup for the Nuggets-Timberwolves betting guide, but Rudy Gobert's rebounds are the play here.
His per game rebounding numbers are down from 11.6 in the regular season to 10.3 in this series. That's a small enough difference that it could definitely just be noise, but there's also some reason to believe in the small drop. Nikola Jokic is one of the absolute best rebounders in the league. Plus, Gobert also has his hands more than full trying to slow down the two-time MVP.
In three regular season matchups, Gobert's rebounding numbers absolutely against the Nuggets as he averaged just 5.7 rebounds per game and had a high of eight. There's also the potential for foul trouble. Gobert fouled out of Game 3 and collected five fouls in Game 2. If he's in and out of foul trouble in Game 4, that is obviously great for the under.
The books haven't really moved Gobert's number and are leaving it at 11.5 rebounds (-115). I like the under here.
