NBA All-Star Weekend is done and we still have a few more days of a break before we get to actual games. The end of the "first half" of the season gives teams and bettors an opportunity to reset before the final stretch.
Here's a look at where all 30 teams stand after the All-Star break and how sportsbooks are pricing their odds to win the 2023 NBA championship.
NBA Championship Odds
Odds via FanDuel as of Feb. 20.
| Team | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Celtics | +280 | 21.93% |
| Bucks | +430 | 15.72% |
| Suns | +480 | 14.37% |
| Nuggets | +750 | 9.80% |
| Clippers | +1200 | 6.41% |
| 76ers | +1400 | 5.56% |
| Grizzlies | +1700 | 4.63% |
| Mavericks | +1700 | 4.63% |
| Warriors | +1900 | 4.17% |
| Cavaliers | +2600 | 3.09% |
| Heat | +5500 | 1.49% |
| Pelicans | +5500 | 1.49% |
| Lakers | +5500 | 1.49% |
| Nets | +12000 | 0.69% |
| Hawks | +13000 | 0.64% |
| Kings | +13000 | 0.64% |
| Raptors | +16000 | 0.52% |
| Knicks | +21000 | 0.39% |
| Timberwolves | +24000 | 0.35% |
| Bulls | +24000 | 0.35% |
| Jazz | +49000 | 0.17% |
| Trail Blazers | +49000 | 0.17% |
| Wizards | +50000 | 0.17% |
| Pacers | +50000 | 0.17% |
| Hornets | +50000 | 0.17% |
| Thunder | +50000 | 0.17% |
| Magic | +50000 | 0.17% |
| Rockets | +50000 | 0.17% |
| Spurs | +50000 | 0.17% |
| Pistons | +50000 | 0.17% |
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The Top Contenders
The Celtics have been in pole position nearly all season and they still have a significant edge in terms of their implied probability to win the title.
They still lead the NBA in Net Rating at +6.2 — third in Offensive Rating (116.9) and fourth in Defensive Rating (110.6) — but have just a half game lead on the Milwaukee Bucks in the overall standings. The Bucks and Phoenix Suns have been followed closely behind the Celtics on the oddsboard all season.
The Bucks were starting to get healthy before the break until Giannis Antetokounmpo popped up with a wrist injury that impacted him during All-Star Weekend. The Suns are still awaiting Kevin Durant's on-court debut, but have Devin Booker and Chris Paul back in the lineup after weeks of injury issues.
Teams on the Cusp
The Denver Nuggets lead the Western Conference in wins but they fall just outside of the group of teams with a double-digit percentage chance of winning the title based on their implied probability.
Behind the Nuggets are the Los Angeles Clippers, who, much like the Bucks and Suns, dealt with injuries but seem to have turned a corner entering the break. The Philadelphia 76ers round out this group of teams with a better than 5% implied probability and they sit just three games out of first in the East.
Outside Looking In
The Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks have the same odds to win the NBA title at the break but their paths have been drastically different to this point.
The Grizzlies started the season hot before hitting a rough patch in mid-January. The Mavericks were trudging through the season before they swung the blockbuster trade for Kyrie Irving that changed their trajectory for the rest of the season.
That trade seems to be the main reason why these two team have the same chance to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy in the eyes of oddsmakers as the Grizzlies have a 4.5-game lead on their division rivals in the Western Conference standings.
The Golden State Warriors also fall into this group of teams that could be perceived as a threat to the top teams. Stephen Curry's injury and their generally inconsistent level of play have held them back from being seen as true contenders. Still, the Warriors are at .500 with 24 games left in the season and the books at least think they have a small shot to make a run.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are the last team in this range. They are fourth in the Eastern Conference, have the second-best Net Rating in the NBA (+5.8) and the league's top defense (109.3). They have about a 3% chance to win the title based on implied probability.
The Longshots
Only three other teams have a better than 1% chance of winning the championship based on these odds: Miami Heat, New Orleans Pelicans, L.A. Lakers.
Each team is currently outside of the top-six teams in its conference and each team has key question mark (or two) that would dismiss them from the conversation immediately if things didn't break positively in their favor.
The Pelicans don't know when, or if, Zion Williamson will return to the team after a hamstring injury. The Heat, who reportedly agreed to a deal with buyout candidate Kevin Love, don't know if their depth is enough to make up for a lack of star power and injuries. The Lakers don't know if Anthony Davis or LeBron James will be at full strength for the remainder of the season.
Just making the playoffs would be an accomplishment any of these three teams at the moment; a championship, as the odds here suggest, is even harder to imagine.
NBA Finals Matchup Odds
Click arrow to expand full NBA finalist odds
| Matchup | Odds |
|---|---|
| Boston Celtics vs Phoenix Suns | +650 |
| Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets | +700 |
| Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns | +850 |
| Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets | +1000 |
| Boston Celtics vs Los Angeles Clippers | +1100 |
| Milwaukee Bucks vs Los Angeles Clippers | +1500 |
| Boston Celtics vs Memphis Grizzlies | +1600 |
| Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks | +1600 |
| Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors | +2000 |
| Milwaukee Bucks vs Dallas Mavericks | +2100 |
| Milwaukee Bucks vs Memphis Grizzlies | +2100 |
| Philadelphia 76ers vs Phoenix Suns | +2500 |
| Milwaukee Bucks vs Golden State Warriors | +2700 |
| Philadelphia 76ers vs Denver Nuggets | +2800 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers vs Phoenix Suns | +4100 |
| Philadelphia 76ers vs Los Angeles Clippers | +4300 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers vs Denver Nuggets | +4500 |
| Philadelphia 76ers vs Dallas Mavericks | +5500 |
| Philadelphia 76ers vs Memphis Grizzlies | +5500 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers vs Los Angeles Clippers | +6500 |
| Boston Celtics vs Los Angeles Lakers | +6500 |
| Boston Celtics vs New Orleans Pelicans | +6500 |
| Philadelphia 76ers vs Golden State Warriors | +7000 |
| Milwaukee Bucks vs New Orleans Pelicans | +8500 |
| Milwaukee Bucks vs Los Angeles Lakers | +8500 |
| Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns | +9000 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers vs Dallas Mavericks | +9500 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers vs Memphis Grizzlies | +9500 |
| Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets | +10000 |
| Boston Celtics vs Sacramento Kings | +11000 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors | +11000 |
| Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Clippers | +15000 |
| Milwaukee Bucks vs Sacramento Kings | +15000 |
| Brooklyn Nets vs Phoenix Suns | +19000 |
| Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks | +20000 |
| Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies | +20000 |
| Brooklyn Nets vs Denver Nuggets | +21000 |
| Philadelphia 76ers vs New Orleans Pelicans | +23000 |
| Philadelphia 76ers vs Los Angeles Lakers | +23000 |
| Atlanta Hawks vs Phoenix Suns | +23000 |
| Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors | +25000 |
| Boston Celtics vs Minnesota Timberwolves | +25000 |
| Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets | +25000 |
| Toronto Raptors vs Phoenix Suns | +28000 |
A Celtics vs. Suns NBA Finals matchup has the shortest odds (+650) on the board coming out of the All-Star break. The top four potential NBA Finals matchups feature either the Celtics or Bucks facing the Suns or Nuggets.
The top-two matchups with the Clippers representing the Western Conference are next on the board with Celtics vs. Clippers listed at 11-1 and and 15-1. A Celtics vs. Grizzlies Finals matchup (the only one Ja Morant is worried about) is listed at 16-1.
A rematch of last year's NBA Finals between the Celtics and Warriors is priced at 20-1.
