Sunday gets started with some early matinees in the NBA — and we're about to get started with our NBA best bets today and expert picks for Sunday, November 19.
From spreads to totals and player props, too, here are the best NBA bets for Sunday. Let's go!
NBA Best Bets Today |Expert Picks for Sunday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pistons vs. Raptors
Betting on the Raptors after they failed to cover +5 against a Giannis-less Bucks team on Wednesday should be illegal. In fact, I should have to sneak across the border into Canada just to place this bet, let alone call it my best of a large Sunday slate — but there are a few reasons I like the matchup for Toronto.
First is the injury report for Detroit. You could compile a semi-decent starting lineup with all the Pistons players who could miss this game; most notable of the bunch is breakout big man Jalen Duren, who will miss his fourth straight game with an ankle issue.
The Raptors IR isn't the cleanest, either, but the most notable entry on the report for Toronto is OG Anunoby, who is likely play.
With him in the lineup, Toronto's offense and defense both improve drastically. Anunoby gives a +7.76- and -10.5-point swing to the Raptors offense and defense respectively this season. In just 12 games, the sample is small, but if we include last season as well, that on/off difference is consistent, albeit somewhat less pronounced.
Even if Anunoby is a last-minute, surprise scratch, the Raptors are just a bad matchup for this Pistons team without Duren in the lineup. Because of its size, Detroit is a great rebounding team. The Pistons have the third-best Offensive Rebounding Percentage in the league at 31.4%, but the Raptors aren't slouches on the boards either. They rank ninth in Defensive Rebounding Percentage (72.6%) and are the most efficient offense in transition off live rebounds (143.9) — but without Duren crashing the boards for the Pistons, that should give Toronto plenty of chances to score on the fastbreak.
The Pistons also have the worst Turnover Percentage in the league (17.6%), per Cleaning the Glass, and the Raptors are also 10th in transition offense off steals (147.1).
Even without adjusting for this matchup specifically, my model shows value on Toronto down to -8.
Pick: Raptors -6.5 | Play to -8
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Suns vs. Jazz
By Jim Turvey
The Suns offense has looked elite since Devin Booker returned, with an offensive rating of 139.7 in the admittedly tiny sample. However, within that two-game sample, they did have to face the best defense in the league in Minnesota and scored a season-high on the Wolves.
The team is still without Bradley Beal, but they draw a Jazz team who they just played and has the second-worst defensive rating this season. In fact, if you adjust for strength of schedule, the Jazz have the fully worst defense in the league, per dunks and threes.
The Suns play at a slightly faster pace with Booker, but they are far more efficient. Booker has been killing it in his creative role, averaging 27.5 points and 10.0 assists a game. Combined with the incredibly porous defense they are facing Sunday, I like the Suns team total to over 125.5.
Pick: Phoenix Suns Over 122.5 | Play to Over 125.5
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By Jim Turvey
Point Book is back. We saw it last season in the playoffs when Chris Paul went out and Booker tallied 33 assists in the Suns' last four games, clearing this number in three of those four games.
This season, he has also cleared this number in three of four, reaching highs of 13 and 15 in recent games, as well. In fact, the only game he didn't clear 7.5 assists was in his return game in which he only tallied 25:50 of playing time.
On a full workload, Booker has cleared this line every game, and he draws a Utah defense that is the worst schedule-adjusted defense in the league and is easily in the top half of the league in assists allowed per game.
I like this bet both at its baseline of 7.5 assists and would take it to a juiced over 8.5. I also really like the ceiling of this bet and his alt assists (10+ or even 12+) as a leg of a fun risk-free same game parlay potentially.
Pick: Devin Booker Over 7.5 assists
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By Jim Turvey
With Walker Kessler out, Collins has been asked to do a lot more work on the boards. He has cleared this number in three of four games, tallying 36 boards in total.
Per pbpstats.com, Collins has seen his defensive rebound rate jump from 15.3 percent to 20.7 percent, with a similarly notable jump on the offensive side as well. The Suns offense is clicking, but even in a game where the Suns shot 52.3 percent from the field and 54.5 percent from three, Collins managed 14 boards when these two teams met on Friday.
I'd play this number to over 9.5 (-110) and I like the ceiling on it to around 12+ at +250 if you are looking for it to be part of a same-game parlay, etc.
Pick: John Collins Over 8.5 rebounds | Play to Over 9.5
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Rockets vs. Lakers
The Lakers' first-half woes are well documented at this point. Los Angeles is having a hard time getting into the game early, especially on the defensive end. The Lakers have a 118.1 Defensive Rating in the first half per NBA Advanced Stats, third worst in the entire league, and with an offense that's not particularly great in either half, that's left Los Angeles with a -10.8 Net Rating in the first half.
We still need some time to see just how real this Rockets thing is, but it's clear at the very least that the defense is vastly improved. Houston ranks fourth in the NBA in Defensive Rating and is playing with improved intensity under Ime Udoka. Sometimes it really is that simple — just showing up and playing with heart and with fight, night after night.
The Rockets will bring the fight to the Lakers, and they'll also come in with a real rest advantage. In the last week, Houston played only one game while the much older Lakers played three, thanks to the inconsistent tournament. Houston has yet to get a road win this season, and I expect them to come out and take the first punch. I'll get my money out at the half in case the Lakers do wake up late and make a push and hope this train fading L.A. first halves keeps rolling.
Pick: Rockets 1H +2.5
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