Another day of the NBA In-Season Tournament has arrived! We have a 10-game slate on deck as we introduce NBA best bets today: expert picks for Tuesday, November 14. Our experts are heavy on Clippers vs. Nuggets, but we also have covered Heat-Hornets and Spurs-Thunder for you. So get ready, get set, and prepare for the loaded slate ahead as we get you set for tonight.
NBA Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NBA betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 10 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Clippers vs. Nuggets
By Joe Dellera
The Nuggets face off against the Clippers in this In-Season Tournament game and look to hand LA their fifth consecutive loss since the acquisition of James Harden. I wrote extensively about their struggles here in my Player Prop Forecast: The on-court fit has been difficult for the Clippers and their offense has struggled as a result, which should lead to more missed shots to clean up.
Enter Nikola Jokic, who has dominated this matchup the last few years, specifically against Ivica Zubac. In six games against Zubac over the last three seasons, Jokic has averaged 26.2 points, 13.7 rebounds, and 7.8 assists. The Clippers will have even fewer answers for him than normal due to Mason Plumlee's injury. Jokic's 12.5 prop is one he exceeded in five of those six matchups against Zubac, and he has averaged 13.7 rebounds per game this season as a whole.
Pick: Nikola Jokic over 12.5 Rebounds (-135)
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Heat vs. Hornets
Duncan Robinson hasn't scored over 15.5 points in back-to-back games since January 2022.
So yes, I'm betting against him doing it this time.
These are going to sound like a series of back-handed compliments, but they're not. I'm the "Heat Guy" here, I'm told …
I understand Robinson is a more developed player this season. Over the last couple of years, even as he's been joggled in and out of the rotation, he's grown into more than just a shooter. He cuts well, he can pass decently well, he has a non-zero ability to handle the ball — which may shock people, Victor Wembanyama included. He's worked himself into being more than what he was when signing that record five-year, $90 million deal.
Now, has he earned every dollar? Not quite, but he's not a bad NBA player this season — I'd say he's the Heat's fourth-best player right now, though I doubt it'll remain so all season long.
That said, he doesn't often string together consecutive scoring outbursts. Even so far this season, he has scored double digits in back-to-back efforts just twice, and he has yet to do it three straight times. In fact, he's only gotten above 15.5 points twice in 10 games.
At his best, he's not a 15 points per game player and never has been, and that's OK, but I'm going a slight under … yes, even against the Charlotte Hornets.
Pick: Duncan Robinson under 15.5 points (-120)
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Spurs vs. Thunder
Listen, folks, I know this is a huge line for an In-Season Tournament game and the Thunder are already 0-2 in group play, but these are two vastly different teams and this is a particularly strong matchup for OKC. The Thunder’s defense in some ways is a mirror image of the Spurs offense.
San Antonio lives in the midrange and shoots a lot of 3s from above the break, while the Thunder defense is fifth in midrange frequency and sixth in non-corner 3s, per Cleaning the Glass. But they don’t just limit shots from those areas, they defend them well, too. The Thunder have the best opponent midrange percentage in the league at 35.8% and are eighth in opponent 3-point percentage above the break (33.1%). Mark Daigneault also does well against the West at home.
It might sound arbitrary, but with the teams you see multiple times a year, there’s a little extra motivation. Outside of his first coaching season, Daignealt is 33-20-2 ATS versus Western Conference teams in OKC. The Thunder have also gotten the better of this matchup specifically. Last season, OKC had a perfect 3-0 record against the Spurs. They didn’t just win, though. They dominated — beating San Antonio by an average margin of 12 points per game.
Based on last year’s data and this year’s, I make this game Thunder -12.6 and -12.9, respectively, and that’s accounting for Wemby and NOT for the several injuries plaguing San Antonio. Keldon Johnson (knee soreness), Tre Jones (hamstring) and Jeremy Sochan (groin tightness) are all listed as questionable. This should be a double-digit win for OKC.
Pick: Thunder -9
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Clippers vs. Nuggets
I don't think this Clippers experiment is going to be terrible forever … but I don't think they're gonna snap out of four straight losses against the Nuggets coming off a loss to the Rockets.
The Clippers are 3-6 but still have a +2.0 net rating. However, since James Harden began playing with the team, they're 0-4 and are -43 in those games.
The positive net rating is heavily blown out of proportion because of a 40-point anomaly of a win over an overwhelmed, young San Antonio Spurs squad 123-83 on October 29.
The Nuggets are fourth with a +8.9 net rating, and you're just not gonna talk me into the Clippers beating Denver in Denver unless it actually happens — and that'll be the NBA just NBA'ing. Additionally, the "big four" in LA are all guards and wings — they've got nothing for Nikola Jokic.
I'll bet against "because, of course" this time. I like this line up to and over 6.5.
Pick: Nuggets -6
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Clippers vs. Nuggets
This is another case of one team owning the other, and Denver’s hold over the Clippers goes back to the Bubble season when the Nuggets came back from a 3-1 deficit to advance to the Conference Finals.
Since then, the Nuggets are 9-2 straight up, and 7-4 against the spread in the head-to-head matchup, and that includes the first game after the Bubble in a classic bounce-back spot the Clippers won.
Since trading for James Harden, the Clippers have looked in disarray. And it might be all his fault. With Harden on the floor, LA is scoring just .82 points per possession, but with him OFF the floor, they’re scoring 1.32. The defense is atrocious too. With Harden ON, opponents are scoring 1.32 points per possession compared to just .72 with him off.
The Clippers have a Harden problem and I don’t think an In-Season Tournament game against the Denver Nuggets is the get-right spot for them — especially without Mason Plumlee to help defend Nikola Jokic, who has absolutely dominated the Clippers. A look to his rebounds prop is likely in order with it currently set at 12.5. In his last eight matchups against LA, Jokic has grabbed 17, 6, 13, 14, 14, 13, 22, and 14. In the game he grabbed just 6, Jokic only played 24 minutes thanks to a blowout game where the Nuggets were up 65-32 at half and 101-59 going into the fourth quarter. I’ll take the Nuggets down to -7.
Pick: Nuggets -5.5
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