NBA Best Bets | Expert Picks for Thunder-Warriors
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 10 p.m. | |
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  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's a light, two-game schedule for the Association this evening but, of course, we have NBA best bets today: expert picks for Thursday, November 16 all set and ready for you.
The Warriors will be without Draymond Green, who is serving a five-game suspension after the melee with Rudy Gobert, as they take on a Thunder team who is performing a rank above the Dubs.
So let's get into it and see what our experts have in mind to approach the betting landscape for Thursday.
Thunder vs Warriors Best Bets, Picks
Thunder vs. Warriors
By Jim Turvey
With Steph Curry and Draymond Green out for the Warriors on Thursday, the Thunder are rightfully favored on the road.
Curry has carried the offense this season for Golden State, scoring 30.7 points per game, on 49/45/93 shooting splits. We saw how the offense looked on Tuesday night against the Timberwolves, surviving the first half before cratering down the stretch and finishing with just 101 points scored, their lowest output of the season.
They will have Klay Thompson back, but this version of Klay simply can't carry an offense on his own. He's shooting easily a career-low from three and scoring his fewest points per game since his rookie season.
On the other side of things, the Thunder are now back to full health, and looked great their last two outings, with a road win over the Suns and a home smackdown of the Spurs.
I make this game Warriors -4 before the Curry and Draymond absences (making this Thunder -2.5 right around what would make sense for a player-adjusted spread), this type of stacking on the creative engines for Golden State's offense, makes me fine with taking this line up to Thunder -4.
Pick: Thunder -2.5 | Play to -4
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Thunder vs. Warriors
The Thunder continue to be one of the best ATS teams in the league and I see no reason they can't continue their success Thursday night against the Warriors. Golden State will be without Steph Curry, who will miss his second straight game with a right knee sprain while Draymond Green will miss the next five games serving a suspension for pulling out some MMA moves on Rudy Gobert on Tuesday.
That leaves the Warriors offense lacking severely against a Thunder defense that ranks fifth in Defensive Rating (109.3) and third in Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage (50.3%). Even with Curry and Green in the lineup, the Warriors had taken a step back offensively from years past, ranking just 24th in Effective Field Goal Percentage (52.3%) so far this season.
The Thunder are heating up and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. I'll ride the hot team and fade a Warriors squad that will likely struggle to score points. Take the Thunder to -4.5.
Pick: Thunder -2.5
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Earlier NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Nets vs. Heat
I wrote about this in my Game Guide for this one, but Jimmy Butler has hit over 1.5 in four of his last five games.
Resulting from their six-game winning streak. the Heat now force the most turnovers in the NBA with 17.4 per 100 possessions. They're also fourth in steals — 9.2 per game — per 100 possessions. Butler's at 1.4 per game, but 1.8 in his last five. I've referred to him as the Ed Reed of the NBA for a while now, and whenever he's engaged, and at plus odds to get over 1.5 steals, I'll give it a look.
Pick: Jimmy Butler over 1.5 steals (+100)
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