Happy Monday, ladies and gentlemen! We're a week away from Christmas and we all know what that means … we're inching closer to the gift that keeps on giving from the NBA with it's festive all-day slate. But before we get too ahead of ourselves, it's a new week and we have 11-games on tap for our experts to help you out with when it comes to NBA totals, player prop bets, and more.
Let's dive right into our expert NBA predictions and picks for Monday, December 18.
NBA Best Bets Today for Monday, Dec. 18
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NBA betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rockets vs. Cavaliers
By Jim Turvey
The Rockets will be on a back-to-back on Monday, but I still like them as they head to Cleveland.
The Cavs will be without Evan Mobley and Darius Garland for several weeks, and although that didn't stop them from topping the spiraling Hawks over the weekend.
This Rockets team is much better, though. At 13-9, they sit right on the cusp of the playoffs right now, and although there's a touch of luck there, their adjusted net rating of +1.1 on Dunks and Threes ranks in the top half of the league.
In this matchup in particular, they have a big edge on the Cavs, though. The Cavs depth is already going to be tested with two starters out, and their bench unit was already among the worst in the league. There's a bit of noise to this stat, but the Cavs bench net rating of -2.9 ranks 27th in the Association.
The Rockets, on the other hand, have the fourth-best bench net rating (+2.9), as their depth has been a big key to their improvement this season. That also means this is a potentially good team to live bet, but with two starters out for Cleveland, I'm going to bite the bullet and play this pre-game.
I'd play this Rockets +3, but this actually opened +4.5, so you might even be able to wait it out if the market (strangely) keeps moving towards Cleveland.
Pick: Rockets +5.5
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Grizzlies vs. Thunder
By Joe Dellera
Chet has been a monster on the defensive side of the ball this season and is coming off a monster 9 block performance against the Denver Nuggets. Chet is averaging 2.7 blocks per game on the season, but he’s gotten his bearings a bit more of late and he has exceeded 2.5 blocks in 7 of his last 10 games.
Tonight, he faces off against Jaren Jackson Jr and the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies play at a moderate Pace but they have the worst Offensive Rating in the league, per Basketball Reference. They are a team that takes a lot of 3s but they are neither a great 3 point shooting team nor are they good finishers at the rim. Memphis as a team is getting blocked the most times per game of any team (6.8), per NBA Advanced Stats. Defensive minded Centers have feasted in this matchup as well, with Rudy Gobert blocking 6 shots just a week ago and Walker Kessler, Anthony Davis, and even Kristaps Porzingis each recording 6 block games.
Chet should dominate on the interior here, and I expect him to clear the 2.5 blocks in this contest.
Pick: Chet Holmgren over 2.5 Blocks
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Bulls vs. 76ers
The Bulls are a different team without Zach Lavine, and he’s missed the last eight games with a foot injury. Despite averaging 21 points per game this season, the Bulls offense runs much smoother without Lavine in the lineup and they have the 11th most efficient offense in his absence, per NBA Advanced Stats. It should be noted, the Bulls are playing at the slowest pace in the league for the eight games without Lavine, but they’re still 7-1 to the over.
The fastest team in that span also happens to be the one with the most efficient offense and it’s the home team in this matchup. The Philadelphia 76ers have a 125.2 Offensive Rating in the past 10 games and while their defensive numbers have also been excellent, that’s largely due to a soft schedule. They’ve played the Wizards twice (26th in Offensive Rating), the Pistons twice (30th), the Hornets (25th), Hawks (sixth), Celtics (fifth) and Pelicans (15th). A lot of these teams are also bad on defense, which you could argue is skewing the numbers, but Philly has the best Adjusted Offensive Rating on the season as well. Their season schedule to-date has also been the third easiest in terms of opposing defenses, but regardless, the 76ers are hitting the over consistently with 17 of their 25 games going over the total. I have some wiggle room and like this up to 232.
Pick: Over 228.5
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Nets vs. Jazz
One way star Cam Thomas just had 41 and I'm taking him under 24.5 points. Feels stupid — here's why it's not.
Save for that 41 against Golden State — and sure, he does that every now and again — he hasn't gone over 24.5 regularly since returning from injury. It's been eight games, he's done it twice.
Since his return, he's actually not shooting it terribly from three, nearing 39 percent, but is just 42 percent from the field and hitting 83 percent of free throws on less than four attempts per game.
Last 40 ball he had, he followed with 14. Classic microwave guy whose numbers will be all over the place. I'm going under 25 tonight.
Pick: Cam Thomas under 24.5 pts
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Timberwolves vs. Heat
By Joe Dellera
Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are expected to make their return tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Will it be enough?
I venture to say no.
The Timberwolves have been one of the league’s best teams throughout the entire season. They have the third-best Net Rating (+7.8) on the season to go along with the league’s best Defensive Rating (106.9), per Basketball Reference. They have been dominant.
Miami has been maligned with injuries – Herro has not played since November 8th and Bam has missed the team’s last 8 games. However, the team had question marks even when both were on the floor as they were just 4-4 to start the season. While inserting them into the lineup will certainly be beneficial, it comes at the cost of continuity and figuring out these rotations.
While Miami is 15-11 on the season, they have a positive win differential of +2.1 – in other words, teams with their Point Differential would have won 2.1 fewer games this far through the season, per Cleaning the Glass. They always seem to outperform their expectations though.
Here, this is a brutal matchup against the Timberwolves who they lost to back in October 106-90. I expect Miami to struggle generating offense against this tough Minnesota defense. While Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels are both on the injury report, if they are ruled in, this line should move towards Minnesota. Even if one or both do not play, I like Minnesota’s defense to spoil Miami’s offense in Herro’s and Bam’s returns.
Pick: Timberwolves Moneyline
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