Mavericks vs. Nuggets Prediction, Picks for Monday, Dec. 18
Here's everything you need to know about Mavericks vs. Nuggets on Monday, Dec. 18 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Nuggets will try to get back in the win column when they host the Mavericks on Monday night. Denver squandered an eight-point lead to the Thunder with roughly three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter and wound up losing 118-117.
As for the Mavericks, they've managed to weather the storm without Kyrie Irving as he recovers from a heel injury. Irving has missed the last four Mavericks' games, but the team still went 3-1 in his absence.
Dallas averaged 126 points in those victories, with all three games flying over the total. High-scoring games have become somewhat of a norm for the Mavericks this season, considering that 72% (18-7) of their games have gone over—the second-highest mark in the league.
The Nuggets are on the other side of the spectrum, ranking 28th with 40.7% (11-16) of their games going over the total.
In this preview, we'll explore a possible contrast in style between the two teams and examine why bettors should be somewhat speculative of this total that opened as high as 238.5.
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Prediction
Pick: Under 238.5
Mavericks Betting Outlook
There's been an apparent change in the Mavericks' offensive philosophy since trading for Irving ahead of the trade deadline. Gone are the days of Dallas's star forward, Luka Doncic, simply running down the shot clock with countless dribbles.
This new version of the Mavericks takes shots much earlier in their possessions, resulting in a faster pace.
In the previous campaign, Dallas ranked 26th in possessions per game (100.9) according to TeamRankings. This season, it's up to 11th, averaging 103.9 possessions.
We're also seeing a Dallas team that's much more willing to get out into transition. Last season, it finished dead last in fastbreak points (11 per game). Currently, the Mavericks are up to 14th with an average of 14.2.
In addition, the Mavericks are getting more production from their bench. Per NBA.com, Dallas ranks sixth with 41.2 bench points—up from 36.2 last season.
Overall, Dallas has gone from a middle-of-the-pack team scoring 114.2 per game to a top-six team with an average of 119.9.
Nuggets Betting Outlook
Like their star center Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets can be slightly deceptive considering their underlying qualities. Denver ranks 15th in scoring (114.7 points per game), but its 4.4 net rating suggests this is a far better team as it sits seventh—almost two points higher than that of Dallas (2.6).
What's interesting about the Nuggets is that you're not likely to find them atop many statistical categories. And yet the team still managed to steamroll to an NBA title last season.
Part of the Nuggets' success is their ability to control the game and play at their speed. If you look at their pace, the Nuggets rank 27th with 100.6 possessions per game.
Defensively, Denver sits 12th in efficiency, allowing 110.1 points per 100 possessions. However, that efficiency metric doesn't capture how well the Nuggets defend the perimeter.
In an era where most NBA teams prioritize the 3-point shot, Denver's perimeter defense can operate as a form of kryptonite. The Nuggets rank fourth in opponent 3-point field goals (11.1 per game) and, perhaps more importantly, third in opponent 3-point attempts (30.9 per game).
That perimeter defense could be critical against a Dallas team that ranks second in percentage of its scoring (39.7%) from beyond the arc.
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Picks, Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7.5 | 238.5 -110/-110 | +240 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7.5 | 238.5 -110/-110 | -298 |
The last time these teams met was on Nov. 3, with the game going over a total of 230 in a 125-114 Denver win. However, that matchup was the first scheduled game of the In-Season Tournament.
With all the pomp and circumstance leading up to the inaugural event, it felt like everything but your traditional NBA game.
There were those unique court designs and some of the unusual tiebreakers in the group stage, such as point differential and total points.
And with both teams combining to score 239 points, it is a bit suspicious that this total opened at 238.5. However, if you ignore that In-Season Tournament game, the highest both teams combined to score in the previous nine meetings was 231 points.
Based on these factors, my model projects a total closer to 232.5 points, giving me enough edge to warrant a play on the under.
