Magic vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks for Saturday, Jan. 13
Here's everything you need to know about Magic vs. Thunder on Saturday, Jan. 13 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Orlando Magic are fresh off of a heartbreaking loss in Miami, and they will now have to fly to Oklahoma City to play on the second night of a back-to-back against one of the toughest defenses in the league.
Orlando has done a good job covering the spread on so many occasions this season, but standing at 8-12 on the road and missing several key names, does it have a prayer here against the mighty Thunder inside one of the most difficult arenas to play in?
Let's get to our Magic vs. Thunder prediction and pick.
Magic vs. Thunder Prediction
Pick: Thunder -10.5 (-115)
Magic Betting Outlook
The Orlando Magic have been a dream for bettors this season, going an impressive 25-13 against the spread and riding their elite defense to many great performances against some of the top offenses in the world. On the second night of a back-to-back, however, things haven't been quite so straightforward.
Orlando, which last played on Friday night in a tight loss to the Heat, earned another cover to make it 65.8% of its games which have featured the Magic covering. With no rest, however, the Magic are just 4-3 against the spread, good for a 57.1% cover rate.
It's not the worst record in the world, but when you consider the injuries mounting for Orlando this is certainly an uphill battle. Jonathan Isaac is expected to return to action on Saturday, but this squad will be without Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris and Franz Wagner once again with Joe Ingles sitting out as well as he nurses his ankle back to full health.
That'll put this Magic offense into a bit of a bind, and that's a rather troubling thought considering they're just 22nd in efficiency on that end. Orlando isn't exactly in the best of matchups here offensively, going against an elite front court defense as the team ranking first in the NBA in shots taken per game within four feet.
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Thunder Betting Outlook
The Thunder have impressed on both ends to this point in the season, but what's easily been the most impressive piece of their success has been their defense. They come in allowing just 111.3 points per 100 possessions, which ranks fifth among all teams, and they've done it off the backs of some solid play in the front court.
Oklahoma City has defended around the perimeter quite well, ranking ninth against the three and fourth against the mid-range jumper according to Cleaning the Glass, but its standout number would certainly be its 59.8% opponent field goal percentage, which ranks first in the league. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams have done an excellent job down there, and it will be incredibly vital against a Magic team that does their damage in the restricted area.
Offensively, while the Thunder have been incredibly efficient, it's pretty hard to single out one area of the floor where they really love to score. They are among the top teams in terms of frequency of shot from the mid-range, but they rank first in 3-point shooting and 11th in offense around the rim according to Cleaning the Glass.
Magic vs. Thunder Picks, Odds
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -112 | 232 -112o / -108u | +455 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -108 | 232 -112o / -108u | -625 |
Orlando is up against it on Saturday. It has a long list of players who will be out of the lineup due to injury, and on top of that it's hard to say the Magic have produced their best basketball on the second night of back-to-back given the record against the spread and their alarming -9.1 margin of victory in these games.
It's a big number, but I think laying the points here with the home team are the way to go. The Thunder have shot over three points better from 3 at home this season, and while Orlando has done a great job on defense most of its dominance has come at the rim.
The Thunder should win the war of attrition down low given they own the best rim defense in the league, and while they've been one of the worst rebounding teams in the league this season they're only eight spots behind Orlando over the last 10 games.
Bet on a combination of tired legs with a depleted Orlando team coupled with a Thunder team that can take away its biggest strength.
