Kings vs. Cavaliers Prediction, Picks Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Kings vs. Cavaliers on Monday, Feb. 5 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Cavaliers will try to remain unbeaten for a sixth straight game when they host the Kings on Monday night. This will be the second and final regular season meeting between the two teams after the Kings defended their home court with a 132-120 victory in early November.
However, we were barely 10 games into the season at that point, as both teams now have had ample time to shape their identities. As a result, I don't think we'll see far less scoring than we did in the earlier meeting.
Not only do the Cavaliers boast the current longest winning streak in the league, but they've lost just once in their last 14 games. Cleveland's turnaround has largely been spurred by its defense, which makes me somewhat speculative of a total that's been bet up five points after opening at 230.
Let's get to our Kings vs. Cavaliers prediction and picks.
Kings vs. Cavaliers Prediction
Pick: Under 235.5 (-120)
Kings Betting Outlook
The average total in Sacramento's games this season is about 236.4 points. Yet, our Action Labs database shows these Kings' games are trending to the under with a 25-23 mark.
But if you isolate Sacramento on the road, where the average total is also around 236 points, under bettors enjoy a 17-9 edge for 6.44 units.
Interestingly, Sacramento has been a better defensive team when they're away from the Golden 1 Center. According to NBA.com, the Kings' defensive rating improves from 118.0 at home to 113.7 on the road.
Offensively, their efficiency also takes a dip on the highway, as evidenced by a 115.4 rating compared to a 118.3 value for games played in Sacramento.
The Kings also aren't a team that dictates tempo away from home. TeamRankings shows that Sacramento averages 2.4 fewer possessions on the road (103.1) than at home (105.5).
These home/away splits should help to explain why location matters when putting together our handicap for this Kings team.
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Cavaliers Betting Outlook
Before this recent run, Cleveland was still a decent team with an above .500 record at 18-15. Through those 33 games, the Cavaliers ranked 11th in defensive rating with a 113.2 mark.
But if we focus on their last 15 games, Cleveland's defensive rating has a staggering 104.3 value—the best in the league during that time frame.
Surprisingly, the Cavaliers' defensive surge began even before their power forward, Evan Mobley, returned from arthroscopic surgery on his left knee.
Moreover, he's only been around for Cleveland's last three games after missing six weeks of basketball.
The former third-overall pick ranks sixth in defensive rating (108.0) among players who average at least 30 minutes per game.
Thus, it makes sense that Mobley's return will only help to fortify this Cavaliers' defense.
While it might've taken the Cavaliers a little while to find their groove defensively, let's not forget that this team led the league in efficiency last season with a 109.9 rating.
The under was 42-40 during that campaign, with an average total of 220.1 points.
Kings vs. Cavaliers Picks, Odds
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 234.5 -110 / -110 | +142 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 234.5 -110 / -110 | -170 |
With scoring up across the league, bookmakers have had to price their totals accordingly. However, I think we're starting to see things balance out thanks to some aggressively priced totals.
Earlier, I mentioned that the total for this game is up to 235 after opening at 230. And while these line moves with an opening total of 230 or higher have been profitable (103-72-1 for 21.62 units) for over bettors, I always like to examine the findings on a case-by-case basis.
The Cavaliers are one team that you won't find on that list, as the over is 0-2 in that spot this season.
Moreover, the Cavaliers are a perfect 5-0 to the under in our database, with an opening total of 230 points before it was bet up in the market.
I think this line move is too much of a stretch as my model projects a total of 230.77, which roughly aligns with the opening number. It'll be interesting to see how high this number gets, given that I now see a total of 235.5 at BetRivers.
While I won't begrudge anyone should they choose to wait even longer, I'm fine locking in my action on the under at 235.5.
Pick: Under 235.5 (-120)
