Cavaliers vs Rockets Odds, Picks & Predictions | NBA Betting Preview (Saturday Mar. 16)

Here's everything you need to know about Cavaliers vs. Rockets on Saturday, Mar. 16 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Cleveland Cavaliers were 5.5-point favorites early on Saturday morning, but that point spread is on the move in our favor. Just a few hours before tipoff against the Houston Rockets, the Cavs are now -4.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

That's good news for us, as our Cavs vs Rockets pick for this afternoon's best bet is on the Cavaliers to cover. Cavs vs Rockets tips off at 5 p.m. ET on NBA League Pass and the local broadcasts. Let's get to my Cavs vs Rockets betting preview and prediction.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are starting to get healthier and I am excited to start backing them again. In the last 'Cavs outing we had the return of Donovan Mitchell and now it is expected that Dean Wade will be ready to play again after missing some time for personal reasons. The 'Cavs will still be without Evan Mobley and Max Strus, but the Mobley fit has not been ideal- so I don't knock the Cavs overall power rating without him.

When capping NBA games, it is important to weigh the last three games a little bit extra. This gives us the clearest health/rotation statistics, and ideas of who is playing well and who is fading. I also like addressing anomalies in the recent outcomes. The 'Cavs lost a game against the Phoenix Suns despite leading by 19. It is abnormal to end up dropping these games, the live spread had them as a near double digit favorite, and I move forward thinking Cleveland is actually slightly better than its market price – which factors in an unlucky loss.

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This is a great opportunity to "sell high" on the Rockets recent performances. Houston is on a 4 game winning streak despite just losing their star center Alperen Sengun for the rest of the season. We can refer to this as fallen star theory- where a team overperforms in the immediate aftermath of a bad injury. Focus is sharper, players are going harder in their minutes and opportunities and the team knows they have to play more cohesive to make up for the lost talent.

It only lasts so long, and I fear the inevitable crash is here vs the Cavaliers. Jarrett Allen will likely make the Rockets pay down low, as they are missing Sengun and relying on Jock Landale to protect the rim.

The spread sitting at -5.5 puts this right in the NBA key numbers zone. 5 is the second-most common outcome and most common push number, while 6 and 7 represent the first and third-most likely NBA outcomes. It is crucial to understand the movements here and time this market right.

Considering the power rating of these teams, this line is not going to reach a flat 5, instead it will stay at 5.5 or climb to 6/6.5. For that reason, striking now on a 5.5 is ideal. If you have to pay a -115 price for the -5.5 vs the 6, it is worth it with these numbers! If you only see a 6 or 6.5, consider playing the moneyline as insurance. In this case, do not jack up exposure.

Pick: Cavaliers -5.5